Five reasons Hillary should be worried

[ProSense]

Five reasons Hillary should be worried

By: Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
Feb 6, 2008 02:31 PM EST

Hillary Clinton survived a Super Tuesday scare. But there are five big reasons the former first lady should be spooked by the current trajectory of the campaign.

Longtime Clinton friends say she recognizes the peril in careening between near-death primary night experiences and small-bore victories.

Although the friends did not have details, they believe she may go ahead with the campaign shake-up she had been planning just before her surprise victory in New Hampshire.

Her team is girding for trench warfare, telling reporters that the nomination will not be decided until at least the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, if then.

Clinton aides told reporters on a conference call today that the Democratic Party’s complex delegate allocation rules mean that neither candidate is likely to take a sizable lead in the foreseeable future.

While Clinton’s campaign gloated about having the most total delegates for the cycle so far, her staff nevertheless recognizes that Super Tuesday was no triumph. Here’s why:

1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.

And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states.

Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.

With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.

Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago...

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region...

4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing...

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

more

Barack Obama Crosses the 50 Yard Line

[AtomicKitten]

1. A succinct laundry list of truth that will be tough for some to digest.

K&R

[NJSecularist]

20. Hillbots don't want to hear the truth

[TheDeathadder]

21. Oh give me a break

[russian33]

2. so did she "lose the delegate derby" or was "super tuesday essentialy a draw"?

you can't have both...

[JackORoses]

9. technically, it wasn't a draw because Obama won more delegates.

'Essentially' it was a draw because Obama only leads by a handful.

You need to learn a little more about the intricacies of the English language.

[russian33]

14. pardon me, i'm one of those immigrants

for whom english is a second language

[JackORoses]

18. sorry about that. We get alot of Hillarites in here who play dumb on purpose.

I envy you for being able to learn English as second language.

I have trouble with an easy one like Spanish. I wouldn't even want to think about learning a language as mixed-up and convoluted as English.

;)

[russian33]

19. no problemo

it wasn't too easy, especially since russian and english have NOTHING in common

[JackORoses]

28. is the Russian Alphabet built on the basic Hebrew-Greek Alphabet

Aleph Alpha
Beth Beta
Gimel Gamma
...

and so on?

or is it wholly different like Chinese, for example?

[blm]

3. Yep - she NEEDED to sweep yesterday.

.

[roguevalley]

4. someone said that a tsunami of superdelegates were waiting

to see who won before committing. they said watch for the wave to come after the primaries.

[Adelante]

8. They probably still don't know what to do

There's no real clarity come out of yesterday.

[KoKo]

5. Massachusetts and California show that she still can have surprise

victories, though.

[Dawgs]

6. I'm sorry, but those weren't surprise victories.

She was up by 20+ in California and +30 in Massachussetts as recently as a few weeks ago.

[scheming daemons]

7. Neither was a surprise

She was +37% in MA before the Kennedy endorsement and ended up +15%.

She was +20% in CA before the Kennedy endorsement and ended up +10%.


There was no state Hillary won yesterday that was a "surprise." The only surprise states were MO and CT.

[rinsd]

22. Hillary was up around 13 before the Kennedy endorsement and won by 10

Polls taken in the week before kennedy endorsemnet on Jan 28th

Rasmussen	01/29 - 01/29	807 LV	40	43	Clinton +3.0
SurveyUSA	01/27 - 01/27	888 LV	38	49	Clinton +11.0
Polit/CNN/LAT	01/23 - 01/27	690 LV	32	49	Clinton +17.0
USA T/Gallup	01/23 - 01/26	779 HT	35	47	Clinton +12.0
Field	        01/14 - 01/20	377 LV	27	39	Clinton +12.0 

Kennedy did help close the gap in MA.

[NoBorders]

10. Uh oh, you believed the zogby polls didn't you.

:hi:

[KoKo]

23. Yeah....I like John Zoby...I 've seen him on C-Span many times...

I don't think he likes to think of himself as an "incompetent pollster" ...but with cellphones being the "norm" these days...I don't think any of these pollsters can deal with the change. Until cell phones can be freed up to give numbers to pollsters they have to rely on "land lines." I wonder sometimes who they call. I still have a land line...and am active voter...but the only pollsters who call me are those doing local "push polls." I do have a cell phone...but no one has my number.

I think the polls are very skewed because times have changed. They are just winding themselves through this election until they can get Congress to allow them to infiltrate our Cell Phones.

They still get money to do these inaccurate polls, though. What's up with that? :shrug:

[JackORoses]

12. those were about as surprising as Sunrise

Now, Connecticut was a surprise.
Obama stomping her across the plains was surprising.
Obama winning more delegates was surprising.

Surprised?

[TwilightGardener]

11. Awesome. Thank you for posting this.

[candice]

13. Hillary's advantage is how the media has portrayed her

...the more I learned about her the more I liked her. Lots of substance, very likable, and her presidency would allow me to feel proud about being an American again.

With Obama, I was set up for great expectations but was let down. Who said WHAT couldn't be done? I care who is going to be left out of the health-care plan. Did you allow drinking water to be contaminated by nuclear wastes because of huge donations from Exelon? Why have you not convened any policy hearings since you took over as Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations?


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/us/politics/03exelon.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

When residents in Illinois voiced outrage two years ago upon learning that the Exelon Corporation had not disclosed radioactive leaks at one of its nuclear plants, the state’s freshman senator, Barack Obama, took up their cause.

Mr. Obama scolded Exelon and federal regulators for inaction and introduced a bill to require all plant owners to notify state and local authorities immediately of even small leaks. He has boasted of it on the campaign trail, telling a crowd in Iowa in December that it was “the only nuclear legislation that I’ve passed.”

“I just did that last year,” he said, to murmurs of approval.

A close look at the path his legislation took tells a very different story. While he initially fought to advance his bill, even holding up a presidential nomination to try to force a hearing on it, Mr. Obama eventually rewrote it to reflect changes sought by Senate Republicans, Exelon and nuclear regulators. The new bill removed language mandating prompt reporting and simply offered guidance to regulators, whom it charged with addressing the issue of unreported leaks.

"The history of the bill shows Mr. Obama navigating a home-state controversy that pitted two important constituencies against each other and tested his skills as a legislative infighter. On one side were neighbors of several nuclear plants upset that low-level radioactive leaks had gone unreported for years; on the other was Exelon, the country’s largest nuclear plant operator and one of Mr. Obama’s largest sources of campaign money.

Since 2003, executives and employees of Exelon, which is based in Illinois, have contributed at least $227,000 to Mr. Obama’s campaigns for the United States Senate and for president. Two top Exelon officials, Frank M. Clark, executive vice president, and John W. Rogers Jr., a director, are among his largest fund-raisers.

Another Obama donor, John W. Rowe, chairman of Exelon, is also chairman of the Nuclear Energy Institute, the nuclear power industry’s lobbying group, based in Washington. Exelon’s support for Mr. Obama far exceeds its support for any other presidential candidate."

Why has Obama not done his job as Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/23/104343/977


'Dave Schuler reported January 22, 2008, at Outside the Beltway that, based on "a number of major challenges facing the West", a "panel of top military figures from the United States, Britain, Germany, France, and the Netherlands have produced a report calling for sweeping reform of NATO."

...since January 2007, the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on Europe has been Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who, Joe Conason wrote December 29, 2007, in Salon, has convened no policy hearings since he took over as its chairman."

From their respective speeches last night:

Obama: "One thing we don't need the results to tell us. Our time has come."

Hillary: "Tonight we heard the voices of people across America, people of all ages, of all faiths and of all walks of life...all those who aren't in the headlines but have always written America's story. After seven years of a president who listened only to the special interest groups, you're ready for a president who will bring your voice, your values, your dreams to your White House.

[PATRICK]

15. Superdelegates

The possible convention floor fight for Florida and Michigan. I think she is feeling the heat in these hidden areas.

Expect, if she is elected, big government contract consolation prizes for Southern states for having to sacrifice for the good of the top of the ticket. Expect some peculiar appointments, rewards or consolation prizes, for superdelegates. Expect a consistent show of self-destructive loyalty, fear, calculation or whatever on the part of superdelegates who simply dismiss the peril and the necessary price of the Hillary ticket. Expect a lot of paralysis, which we have become accustomed too, despite the voters having tossed our "leaders" the ball, if for no other reason than the GOP race is still unresolved and may yet shift in response to our choice.

Expect everyone to ignore Bloomberg, whose lack of personal charism makes him a joke even if propped by fawning media sycophants if for no other reason as a distraction card. Hillary has some brutal, not very democratic cards to play behind the scenes- which are nothing by the way, to offset her commendable or practical choice not to be all that negative against Obama.

To seal his point I think Obama needed a symbolic win or better showing in the BIG states. Even then, the raw power of the Clintons to take this nomination cannot be set aside. So far the superdelegates, to send a clear signal that they want Obama, needed some big, centrist defections. It has been a chunk of the liberal wing so far doing the usual upfront, one soldier at a time cheerleading. it will take considerably more than that with either the voters or the party leadership encrusted with the notion that Hillary is due, known and a power to be reckoned with more than just a candidate. Judging by the sorry record on important issues, can the party leadership response be any different? In fact, it seems to crystallize it, so far. Until masses of voters put an electoral gun to their head I see this leadership inertia as hard to change.

[ProSense]

16. Bill Clinton speaks out against self-financing

here.

How does Bill get around on one foot, the other one is always in his mouth!

[AtomicKitten]

17. this gem deserves it's own thread

[paulk]

24. One reason why Obama should be worried

Twenty one of the next twenty six contests are primaries, not caucuses.

Obama has done much better in the caucuses than the primaries.

There's your "predictable formula".

The rest of the schedule favors Hillary - the calender is her friend, not Obama's.

[ProSense]

26. He'll do fine! n/t

[paulk]

29. change you can believe in!

more empty rhetoric instead of a real answer.


How is Obama going to accomplish all the wonderful things he has promised?

Why - he'll do just fine!

[bvar22]

25. !

The Democratic Party is a BIG TENT, but there is NO ROOM for those
who advance the agenda of THE RICH (Corporate Owners) at the EXPENSE of LABOR and the POOR.

[Evergreen Emerald]

27. She kicked his asssss!!!! He had her buried and was struttin to the finish line

doh! The media is trying to finish her off, but dang that tough bad-ass-chick is still standing and fighting.

Go ahead. Continue to write-her-off.