OOPS: Obama Campaign Projects Deadlocked Race After Primaries Finish

[Herman Munster]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aHVRn9HAldqg&refer=us

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama's campaign is forecasting that the Democratic presidential race will remain deadlocked after the primaries end, and the outcome may depend on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan are counted.

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

The forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding primaries ahead of the schedule set out by the party. Clinton, who won uncontested primaries in both states, is vowing a fight to have those delegates -- slated to be 366 in total -- seated at the nominating convention.

``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said, adding that the release of the information was unintended.

Another issue is the so-called super delegates, 796 Democratic officials and officeholders who aren't bound by the results of primaries and caucuses. Obama's campaign projects about half will be pledged to either the Illinois senator or Clinton, and the rest could swing the nomination.

A Draw

After a year of campaigning and 26 contested primaries and caucuses since January, Obama and Clinton have essentially battled to a draw. After yesterday's Super Tuesday voting in 22 states across the country, the two candidates are separated by less than 30 delegates in the nomination race.

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.

[msongs]

1. good, then al gore can accept the nomination and dump the high priest and the dynasty candidate nt

[MonkeyFunk]

5. It would be suicidal

to choose somebody who didn't run.

Al Gore would start in September with no money, no organization, and a demoralized democratic base.

[rinsd]

2. Its a relief to know his campaign is far smarter than many of his DU "supporters"

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. you know, I posted two threads tonight

one was a prediction of the delegate results by the end of the convention.

I came up with 1465 to 1462.

And then I just posted a thread saying there were 862 unpledged superdelegates.

If you split that 862 evenly, you get 431. Add that to my earlier totals, you get.


Obama = 1896
Clinton = 1893.

And that list of superdelegates that I posted might not be that up-to-date.

But my projection was within 100 delegates of Obama's.

[rodeodance]

4. Russturd has them almost locked -maybe 4 + for obama