The Math Doesn't Add Up

[THUNDER HANDS]

As I've posted numerous times tonight (and forgive me if I'm sounding like a broken record), but based on my projections, and the projections of the Obama campaign...

By the time the primaries are over, there should be less than a 50-delegate difference between Obama and Clinton. And with the pledged delegates, they should each have around 1,400. With the 800 remaining superdelegates, unless they all break for the same person, then Hillary and Obama are going to have about 1,800 to 1,900 delegates each.

They will need 100 to 150 more delegates to win the nomination.

And there are no more delegates.

Unless....

Unless...

Unless the delegates from Florida and Michigan are opened up. Together, they amount to 341 delegates. If those are split equally, then each candidate would get 170 delegates, which will be enough to put one of them over the 2,025 mark.

There will have to be some sort of resolution to this.

The superdelegates will matter, but unless they vote en mass for someone, it won't be enough to swing the race.

It is still going to come down to Michigan first...and then, oddly, strangely, poetically, ironically....Florida.


Florida.

[MadBadger]

1. They need to just redo those elections.

That is the most fair thing that could possibly happen.

[guruoo]

7. snort!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[MadBadger]

15. What so funny? From what Ive heard, DNC has been saying this should be done

[guruoo]

20. Sorry, couldn't help it...

:rofl:

[MagsDem]

2. Why should they split FL evenly?

Clinton beat Obama by 300K votes. Why should they split them evenly?

[BootinUp]

5. Clinton will never agree to that, and neither will Florida. Its absurd.

[goldcanyonaz]

14. Only on DU is a 300,000 + win a "do over"

[guruoo]

18. Yeah, dat one made me blow coffee through my noze

:rofl:

[PermanentRevolution]

24. Primary partisanship aside....

It's impossible to know just how many Florida Democrats didn't bother to vote in the primary since it had been made abundantly clear that our votes were going to be worthless. Most of my friends didn't bother for exactly that reason. A re-vote wouldn't necessarily give any greater benefit to Obama OR Clinton, as it would probably keep about the same percentages, but it would be a fairer representation of the will of the voters.

[MagsDem]

26. 2 million dems voted, and they choose Hillary....

... by a huge margin. Get over it.

[RichGirl]

38. Are you saying that mostly Obama supporters...

didn't bother to vote...and Hillary's voters did? That's another reason we need Hillary...she has more committed voters.

[stellanoir]

9. Because they made a pledge to avoid those elections as signaled by the DLC.

Then Hillary went ahead and had a huge rally their and supposedly ran ads in MI.

It's called an unfair advantage.

A classic bait and switch.

So go figure.

This may turn out to be an enormous point of contention or so I heard last night.

[guruoo]

13. Wasn't that rally held after the voting? n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

17. The rally was after the vote occurred

Not against the rules at all.

And "supposedly" ran ads in MI? I think that might've generated a thread or two here. But Obama did have ads running in Florida, though.

[guruoo]

22. They did both have ads running nationally, that aired in FL, and MI

[MonkeyFunk]

28. Wrong

Clinton didn't have any ads running in Florida - only Obama did.

And this is the first I've heard anyone mention ads in MI.

[guruoo]

29. I'm talking about nationally contracted ads, not ads contracted

to run in FL. Am I wrong here?

[MonkeyFunk]

30. Yes

Only Obama did that.

Clinton didn't.

[guruoo]

34. Obama was the only one running national ads at the time?

[MonkeyFunk]

35. sigh

Yes.

Clinton didn't run ads in Florida. I've never heard that she's run ads in MI, either, before today. I don't think it's true. Kucinich, however, did campaign there.

[guruoo]

41. Okey-Dokey. n/t

[RichGirl]

40. Hillary DID NOT have a huge rally there.

She had a rally to thank her supporters AFTER the election. Only Obama ran ads in Florida and he didn't bother to thank those who voted for him.

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Because, Obama DESERVES to win!! Common theme around here.

[caligirl]

12. have you thought about the hell of fury this would unleash. Obama would

have every right to fight this as would Edwards. Their names weren't even on the ballot in Michigan and they followed a binding agreement. Watch hell break loose if those delegates are awarded.The hell will come from voters, maybe not you but it will. The repugs are anxiously awaiting the fire fight as it helps them win the WH. We have to avoid this at all costs. Obama and Clinton will have to come to some kind of agreement to save the party from this.

[guruoo]

16. Clinton has a right to fight for them, Obama has a right to fight against them

absolutely.

[caligirl]

27. True, is enforceing that right more important than costing the party the WH, it is a risk

slanted in the repugs favor. A waring democratic party has lost site of the goal, get a dem in the WH and the down ticket to get greater control of the senate. You, I and all dems and the country loose if that happens. I kid you not, this implodes on all of us if they go to a fight on the floor over this stuff.
Having a right, doesn't mean its the smart or right thing to do. the cost is the future and rebuilding of strength of the democratic party. Taking the longer view this is a fools errand.

[guruoo]

32. What do you suggest?

[caligirl]

42. there is lots of time for things to play out . Obama is expected

to continue to out raise Hillary with small donations totaling 30 million for Feb, like January. Hillary could find herself in a dire political money situation soon. its all the talk now. But I don't underestimate her. The demand to count the Fl and Mi delegates comes only from her camp, with little talk about the negatives to the other people and party future. She needs to drop the demand or Dean needs to tell her to drop it for the future of the party. Then you have the problem of the super delegates pledged regardless of the states wishes. Similar outcome. Problems again with voters and other delegates storming out. Donna Brazile already said she would walk out if it comes to using super's and she is a super delegate. But going with the super delegates might be less volatile than seating delegates from states involved in the binding agreement, FL ands MI. They need to remain off the table and super delegates need to vote the will of the people, up or down.

[Samantha]

36. You are exactly right about this

If the MI and FLA delegates are seated simply because Hillary demands it, people will get up and WALK OUT of that convention. Many will be African-American, and they will be right to do so. They will feel defrauded again, and rightfully so. Were I there, I would walk out as well.

Talk about changing the rules in the middle of an election -- who does that remind us of?

A bolting at the convention will impact the Dems future ability to win elections for decades to come.

[caligirl]

44. So important to grasp this stuff. Thanks.

[caligirl]

3. Did you look at Edwards delegates? not enough of them for the

difference needed but where do they fit? Edwards also hasn't announced his endorsement if he is going to. That could also make some measurable difference in the count in the next rounds of states.

[thunder rising]

4. There were no election in neither MI nor FL; hence no delegates.

The states don't exist this year ... sorry. (writing live from WPB FL)

[tnlurker]

6. Somebody said earlier today on DU

That they could hold caucuses within the next couple of months and the delegates would count.

[thunder rising]

8. "based on my projections" ... If your that good at predictions, go to the horse races and make money

[THUNDER HANDS]

25. it's not hard to do the projections

they're all going to be rather close, state-by-state.

[yellowcanine]

10. There are still a lot of delegates to be decided to be making these kinds of calculations.

The remaining races could break strongly for one candidate or the other and make your calculations moot.

[thevoiceofreason]

19. Or drop the total by the number of delegates

(or super delegates) in offending states

[TexasObserver]

21. There will be a series of votes

The superdelegates are primarily House and Senate members, along with other party officials, like DNC members. If they fail to vote with their constituencies, they will be in trouble at home. If they are on the ballot and they vote for a nominee that will hurt down ballot in their state, they will catch ungodly hell back home. With few exceptions, they will vote their self interest, which is to vote the way their home district or state voted.

The ones to worry about are the ones who are retiring. Sometimes they don't give a shit and will do whatever the hell they feel like, or they'll effectively sell out for some political plum (their kid gets a judgeship, or such). It's illegal, but it happens when some politicians are doing their thing.

At some point, it will become clear which candidate has the votes to run the convention, and they will assume control of the process, and from there, it's all over for the losing side.

If Obama goes into the convention with a lead among all the state delegations on earned delegates, and loses in the superdelegates, the party will come apart at the seams. That cannot happen, and if it does, it will be cataclysmic. I expect the party mothers and fathers will get behind whoever the states' delegations (sans Michigan and Florida) choose. They'd better or they will be screwing up royally.

[caligirl]

43. Problem, Obama has won the delegate count in many states Hillary

won by popular vote by a smaller percentage than Obama in states he won by popular vote.

If the super delegate has to choose between the delegate count winner or the popular vote winner(lacks broad appeal as in Nevada. Wins in select areas, not across the state in rural and urban areas alike)what are they going to do? I imagine the book of rules has this covered in legalese.

[joshcryer]

23. The Obama supporter wet dream. Thankfully Dean will intervene before that.

[Perky]

31. Rat...you are not thinking correctly and maybe MSM is not eaither

Presently there are no delegates for Michigan or FLorids. You have to subtract those quanitties form the original delegate count. Divide the result by 2 and add 1. That is the magic number for a majority.


Because Florida and Michigan have been stripped there is a ne smaller total and thus a new smaller majority needed for nomination.

[THUNDER HANDS]

39. I don't think that's official

because it was never stated anywhere.

The nominating number is still one half of all the available delegates, plus one. And that was all available delegates including what Florida and Michigan had.

So unless they officially change it, that's what they have to shoot for.

I think there's only three ways this gets resolved.

1. One of the two candidates drops out.

2. Florida and Michigan get seated delegates in a 50/50 split and the winner ends up being the person who had the most delegates beforehand.

3. A mini primary do-over day is held, and Michigan and Florida vote on the same day after all the other states have held their's.

or possibly a fourth.

A smoke-filled backroom hammers out a deal where both are on the ticket.

[adapa]

33. Brooks said it'll come down to the last vote in Puerto Rico, a winner take

all state with 64 delegates. Sheilds responded, he's writing a fiction book--jim Lerher looked positively aghast at the thought of Puerto Rico deciding who the next POTUS would be. If anyone has todays 'news hour' on Tivo be sure to catch the sheilds & brooks section. absolutely hilarious

[ozone_man]

37. They already redistributed FL and MI delegates.

I added up the committed and super delegates. I got 3203 committed and 3997 total. The total is supposed to be 4,049, so I suspect the chart is a bit off. Supposedly 80% are to come from primary/caucus votes (committed) and 20% super delegates (elected officials and party hacks). This should be 3239 and 810 respectively, for a total of 4,049. Whoever gets 2,025 wins.

There is no need for FL or MI. The election will be decided. It may get interesting when one candidates has more committed delegates and the other has more super delegates giving them the win. Or if it is so close that Edwards few delegates matters.

I don't care for the idea of super delegates at all. It should be eliminated from the process.

I disagree with Howard Dean that we need to interfere with the process, unless it is by letting the committed delegates prevail over super delegates. Make the super delegates have the same proportion as committed delegates, i.e., make them superfluous. Problem solved, no bad feelings. Let the people decide.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#_ref-22