Déjà vu: Obama to Clinton Exit Poll Shift ( TIA )

[tiptoe]

Déjà vu: Obama to Clinton Exit Poll Shift

Updated: Feb. 6 at 2pm

TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/SuperTuesdayShift.htm


Was it New Hampshire all over again? This time, Hillary Clinton – not Bush – was the beneficiary of an unlikely one-sided shift in the 16 state primary exit polls to the recorded vote.

At 7pm, Obama led the 16 state-weighted exit polls by 50.9% – 46.1%.
He was on track to win 11 states.
http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3670

But in the Final exit polls ( ), 15 of the 16 states shifted in Clinton’s direction.
As usual, the finals were forced to match the recorded votes.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080205

The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states in favor of Clinton.
The probability of this occurring due to chance is virtually zero.

The CNN Final 16-exit poll aggregate vote share flipped to Clinton: 49.6 – 45.4%.
Obama’s lead was reduced from 11 states to 7.

These states had the largest exit poll discrepancies:

Massachusetts: Obama led at 7pm by 3%; he lost by 15%.
New Jersey: Obama led by 5%; he lost by 10%.
Arizona: Obama led by 6%; he lost by 9%.

Clinton won the final recorded vote: 49.1–46.8%.
Fourteen states shifted to Clinton from the 7pm exit polls to the final recorded vote. Only two states, Arkansas and Oklahoma, shifted slightly to Obama. But the states were never in play: Clinton easily won both – by 42% and 24%, respectively. Obama won 7 of the 16 states and leads in New Mexico by 71 votes (98% reported).
...
Refer to source link above for data tables:

• Preliminary vs. Final Exit Poll
  Deviation/Margin of Error Analysis
  
  
• Recorded Vote Deviations from the 7pm Exit Polls
  
  
• Gender Demographic Vote Shares
  
  

[tiptoe]

1. k! nt