Heilemann on the Democrats: What’s Hidden in the Latest Numbers

[cali]

Like most people professionally preoccupied with the truly mind-blowing race for the Democratic presidential nomination — and even some folks whose fixation on it is purely recreational — I spent all of last night and much of today combing through the reams of numbers coughed up by 22 separate contests that took place on Super Tuesday. The delegate counts. The super-delegate counts. The exit-poll cross tabs. Oy vey. By now, if you’re reading this, you already know the basics. That Barack Obama won more states than Hillary Clinton (13-8, with New Mexico still in doubt as of this writing) and looks likely to have won a handful more delegates than she did, though she still retains the advantage because of her lead in super-delegates. The other thing you know is that, because Clinton beat Obama in four of the five biggest states that voted yesterday (California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts), she came away having bested him in the overall popular vote. What you’re probably unaware of, however, is just how slender her margin was: 50.2-49.8 percent, according to some frantic digit-cruncher in the bowels of the Time-Life building. Yes, kids, it really was that close.

That closeness means, by all accounts, a race that now promises — or threatens, if you like — to play out until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, if not all the way until the Democratic convention this September. There are countless ways of analyzing how this battle might unfold, but as long as we’re already in green-eyeshade territory, let me offer a few numbers that could well turn out to be particularly important in the days, weeks, and months ahead.

Nine. That’s the number of races on the calendar between now and the end of February. Of them, four are caucuses (Nebraska, Washington, Maine, and Hawaii), four are primaries with a large percentage of African-American voters (Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia, and D.C.), and one is the primary in Wisconsin, a state with a long tradition of pragmatic progressivism and a bent toward retail politics. All of which is to say that there’s a reasonable chance that nine is also the number of races in a row that Clinton will lose before we get to Ohio and Texas, where she is favored. And if that’s the case, the momentum accruing to Obama may prove overwhelming.

<snip>

$32 million, $13 million, $5 million, and $20 million. The first of these is how much the Obama campaign raised in January — a staggering figure. The second is how much the Clinton campaign raised that month — a relative pittance. The third is the amount, we learned today, that Hillary personally loaned her campaign in the past couple of weeks. And the fourth is the amount that her husband, Bill, is reported to be due as a payout after severing his ties with Ron Burkle — and which, presumably, will soon be available to pay for TV ads in Texas and Ohio.

That the Clintons are now rolling down the path blazed this election cycle by Mitt Romney may raise eyebrows. Is it wise? Maybe, maybe not. But one assumes that they wouldn’t be doing it were it not necessary. And that kind of necessity may add up to a world of trouble. —


http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/02/john_heilemann_on_the_democrat.html

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

1. K&R Good read, thank you Cali.

Interesting off topic tibit from the comments over there.
~Voting Present - The Clinton campaign jumped on Obama's voting record in illinois for voting present 140 times, but this was out of 4000 votes he took in the Senate. He was pegged as not taking stands on tough issues like Abortion. However, Voting present is a common practice when you agree in principle with a bill, but have issues with the specifics. It's the equivalent of wanting a buy a particular car, but not agreeing to the price or financial terms to obtain it. In fact, a pro-Choice group actually encouraged him to vote present on the example Clinton cited as him not taking a stand on tough issues.

[cali]

2. He's a really sharp guy and always worth

reading and listening too. He also makes some good points about Obama's failures with the latino vote. I don't think that's fatal if he's the nom, but it's important to keep in mind.

[izzie]

3. I do not know what to make of the numbers.

I guess you see it is good for who ever you wish to win. What is with these super voters? That sounds like the Dem. big wigs wanted to keep control of the party and this was the way to do it. I am sure their are just as many big wigs in the powerful Dem and in the GOP and these type people do not like to have any one share power with them. Like the voters. That style seem to go good in the GOP but I do not think the Dem. on the whole like to have people think they know what is best for us.

[JTFrog]

4. And boy is she gonna want that money back someday. I bet she already has a plan... n/t

[TexasObserver]

5. Thoughtful analysis. Thanks for posting, Cali.

I do expect Obama to dominate the balance of February, and in politics, 3 weeks can be a long time if you're getting your butt kicked the whole time.

The biggest problems the Clintons will have now will be explaining (1) how Hillary can be prepared to lead the country on day one when she can't run her own campaign soundly, after doing it for the past year and having tens of millions, (2) why the Clintons have $40 million in ready cash, when they were broke 7 years ago, (3) how Bill earned $20 million that is soon coming, and what he had to do to get it, (4) what else Bill may have worked on to "earn" millions, (5) and all the negative implications of having Bill play Boss Hogg if Hillary gets into the White House.

If Obama is smart, and he is, he'll try to run the table in February, and he'll use the money advantage to outspend her in every venue. He should avoid debates with her, and he should focus on his positive message, not trying to fend off her attacks. Let Michelle respond to Hillary and Bill's tacky attacks, if at all. Dismiss their attacks as typical Clinton behavior, and move on.

He's preparing for Texas and Ohio. If he does well in February and gets a draw on Texas and Ohio, she's probably finished. If he beats her in both states, it's over for Clinton, and we will be spared the gruesome prospect of the Clintons promising the sky to any of the superdelegates who line up with them.