Which remaining Feb states will go to Obama and which to Clinton?

[cali]

It seems to me that Clinton could take Maine, but what about VA? is that a possibility for her? I keep seeing people say she can't win this or that state, but what's the evidence for it? I know that Obama's up in the polls in WA, but I don't believe the polls are all that recent and she has the endorsement of both Senators and two Reps.

I see Obama taking LA by a 20 pt margin and NE, D.C., the Virgin Islands, Americans Abroad and MD. I'm less sure of Maine and Virginia.

[Prefer]

1. What's the point in speculation?

Is there really anything knowable before it happens?

[cali]

4. Sure, some states are knowable. My track record is pretty good

I predicted that Clinton would win CA and MA. It's easy to know that Obama will win D.C. and states with a significant number of African American voters. And in case you hadn't noticed, about half the posts here are of the speculative flavor.

[TexasObserver]

2. Obama will win 2/3 or more of the remaining Feb states

And he'll win a majority of the delegates.

He has the lead now in states and delegates, and I expect that to remain true the remainder of the race, as he builds and extends his lead.

[bigtree]

3. I don't see Maryland in the bag for Obama.

[cali]

5. I actually don't know that much about MD except that

it has large African American voter base and that Obama has been taking most of that vote.

[bigtree]

7. report: it would be premature to write Clinton off in Maryland,

"You have, in Maryland, a state that has elected a woman senator, that had at one time half of its delegation to the House that were women," said Johanson, who advises Emily's List, a feminist group that has been working to turn out women for Clinton around the country.

Clinton has top-flight political support from Barbara A. Mikulski, the state's senior U.S. senator and a vigorous advocate for Clinton around the country, and from Gov. Martin O'Malley, who also has gone out of state to promote her candidacy.

More recently, former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend has been thrust forward by Clinton's campaign to try to counter a publicity bonanza for Obama after he was endorsed by her uncle, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, her mother, Ethel Kennedy, and cousins Caroline Kennedy and Maria Shriver.

Obama will be favored in Prince George's and Montgomery counties and the city of Baltimore, said Johanson, while Clinton should do well in upper Montgomery, Frederick, the Eastern Shore and Western Maryland. That would make Baltimore and Howard counties key battlegrounds.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.analysis06feb06,0,7026306.story

[cali]

8. Haven't you been one of those saying how useless Kennedy and Kerry

were as endorsers? Why would you think Mikulski or Townsend would count? Townsend is NOT well regarded among dem voters there, and I don't see Clinton winning Baltimore or even coming close.

[bigtree]

10. all of the talk about money shouldn't lose sight of the effect of the GOV

from these establishment folks.

As the blurb states, race may not be the deciding factor in Md. Women are regular and numerous voters in elections in my state.

[Sulawesi]

9. Let me try to dig up the link, but apparently the ethnic/income demos favor BO heavily

[angie_love]

6. I don't know about Maine but its a caucus

so perhaps Obama has a edge there. Virgina could be close but I see that going to Obama too. MD has a large AA population as well as college educated whites, I think that will go to Obama. The only one I have no clue about is Maine.

[terrya]

11. I could see Obama winning Virginia.

I do see Hillary winning Maine.

I hope Hillary wins Virginia. I'm not sure, though.

[sniffa]

12. Honestly

I think she's in serious trouble. She may win ME because she has a base there, but it a caucus state, and that favors Obama. I'm not sure what each ground game is in the state right now.

As for Virginia - the only state of the ones you mentioned which I think she has a shot at right now, I think she needs to invest heavily to win that state. And if she can come up with the money to do that, she still needs a ground game. As last I heard, Obama's already on the ground there. She could pull it off, but I think it would be the last gasp, because as I stated above I think she needs to go all out just to win the popular vote; and if she does, it won't be by much, so it will be a phyric victory as she'll more strained financially, and it's possible she only gets +1 delegate.

Now for the bigger fish. Despite polls currently in Ohio, I think it's going to be a really bad result for HRC. Sure things could change there in her favor, but all signs point to a BO surge.

That leaves Texas. My initial view, is this is somewhat fertile Clinton turf (a still loyal Clinton base, and a Latino base), but she has 2 major disadvantages there: 1) She doesn't have the money to wage a massive campaign there. 2) The quirky caucus system that will decide (the majority?) of delegates there favors Obama.

[skooooo]

13. So Texas has a caucus..?

...instead of a primary? I've been wondering about that. Caucuses seem to go Obama's way.

[sniffa]

14. They have both actually

Someone explained it last night, and it was quite dizzying. I won't even attempt to explain how it works.

[mckeown1128]

16. They have both...

It is a primary and a caucus hybrid.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=514

[Rosa Luxemburg]

15. I don't know about NE, Maine or Americans abroad?

I had a 'pollster' call me yesterday to see who I am supporting in the primary - in a loud clear voice she say Hillary Clinton and in a very quiet muffled voice Barack Obama. (obviously a HRC caller).