DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:22 AM
Original message |
Which Polls Should You Trust? |
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Edited on Thu Feb-07-08 11:22 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
Res ipsa loquitur:
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mohc
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:23 AM
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1. The one that backs up my argument, of course n/t |
DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. Zogby And ARG Suck Donkey Balls |
Rosa Luxemburg
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:24 AM
Response to Original message |
3. do they compare how the pollsters ask the question |
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I've noticeed that some of the questions raised are misleading.
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:28 AM
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5. I See How You Can Insert Bias Into A Poll By Asking Leading Or Loaded Questions |
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But how can you insert bias into a candidate preference poll,ergo:
Mr. or Ms. Smith, if the election was tomorrow would you vote for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?
and you rotate names to make it fair...
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Rosa Luxemburg
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
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yesterday this woman called to ask the same question "hillary clinton" in a clear bold voice or "Barack Obama" in a muffled, very quiet voice which sound like Osama!
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
8. I Would Have Asked To Speak To Her Superior |
Rosa Luxemburg
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:34 AM
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Alhena
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:26 AM
Response to Original message |
4. You should analyze actual similar primary results in past contests ... |
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and try to draw analogies based on whether a given contest is a caucus (favors Obama), a closed primary (favors Hillary, except in heavily black states) or an open primary (kind of a wash, based on past results.)
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rucky
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:28 AM
Response to Original message |
6. The ones that show results of elections. |
OHdem10
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:34 AM
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9. Trust no poll 5-7 days before a primary vote or a caucus. |
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This has been true for years. Very often the Media uses old polls to push the horse race. This was reported in GWB's first race. He went into NH Vote with every Media Outlet and Press Group Reporting that he would win NH by 22 pt. Fact: McCain beat Bush by 22 points.
Further more, people begin to play games with pollster just before the election and fib about how they are going to vote.
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tishaLA
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:41 AM
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I try to maintain a healthy skepticism with all of them.
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AlCzervik
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Thu Feb-07-08 11:41 AM
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12. the one on election day. |
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Wed May 01st 2024, 05:11 AM
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