How does Obama win w/o Texas and Ohio?

[OzarkDem]

A lot of delegates at stake in both states.

[NoBorders]

1. self delete

misread the OP.

[goldcanyonaz]

2. Kool-aid sales are up in both Texas and Ohio...

[rucky]

3. I'm not sure he can. n/t

[DJ13]

4. I guess you're not aware that Texas is part Caucus, part primary?

Over 120 delegates of the 192 total are determined in the caucus portion.

Who does better at caucuses?

[marlakay]

13. How does that work?

My two military kids are registered in Texas and waiting now for their primary mail in vote. I read somewhere that for the caucus part they can fill something out for that. How can they find out about that???

[Alhena]

19. It's the other way around- primary is more heavily weighted ...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/TX-D.phtml

but the primary is completely open so Obama may get some support from independents and Republicans.

[writes3000]

5. How does Hillary win without those states? Kind of a silly question.

And here's the best question - as it stands now, can anyone win the delegate race without a clean sweep of the remainins states?

[OzarkDem]

11. I live in Ohio

She will win here, both primary and GE.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. Yeah and just a month ago no one thought he'd carry most the states he did.

Things can change dramatically in a month.

If Obama cleans up in February, Clinton will be on the ropes and it could be very difficult for her to win there.

[amisaid1]

31. Possibly...

but not if Edwards endorses and/or Obama stresses NAFTA being an achievement of the Clinton years. Edwards carries a lot of weight in Ohio with the blue-collar majority.

[OzarkDem]

38. and pigs fly

Ohio is not an easy state to bamboozle Dem voters.

[goldcanyonaz]

12. Hispanic population will come out in force to vote for Hillary, but won't for Obama.

Hillary and Bill are hero's in the Hispanic community. They are adored by them. Obama is an unknown to them.

[9119495]

24. Yeah, I heard Kool-aid sales were up in a post up this thread.

Apparently that person above doesn't think the hispanics can think for themselves. So sad, in this day and age that someone would paint a group with such a broad brush.

[stillcool]

25. Do you consider that...

a 'cult' following?

[magatte]

42. That's a bit of an overstatment, isn't it? Heroes...

Both factually for their lack of 'heroical' accomplishments for the Lation community, and even symbolically for the lack of overwhelming support.
If I recall Obama wins in Latinos under 40, just like in the rest of the population...

[goldcanyonaz]

44. The Hispanics came out in record numbers in California for Clinton.

The didn't for Kerry in 2004, so there goes the "they're racists" argument. They do have a warm place in their hearts for anything Clinton, both young and older.

[book_worm]

6. Who says he loses them? Why don't we wait and see what happens instead

of assuming he is going to lose them. The campaign is just heating up and remember Obama was behind in all but two of the Super Tuesday states and he ended up winning a majority of them.

[faithfulcitizen]

7. What are the most recent polls?

Does he have a lot of ground to gain?

[Lisa0825]

8. He is sending 50 staffers to Texas.

I know it's a longshot with Hillary having more hispanic support, but I am not counting him out here.

Plus, remember that he could win delegates without winning a majority of the vote. all this "win this state, lose that state" stuff is meaningless right now.

[tammywammy]

14. Yep

All my democratic friends up here in the DFW area are for Obama. :)

[mohc]

9. March 4 should be interesting

Obama might be hoping for a rally effect after winning the rest of the February contests, but there is a bit of a lull in the lead-up to March 4. Obama may be riding high Feb. 19, but there is a two week gap until Mar 4. My guess is he wants to aim for a draw on Mar 4, maybe winning RI and VT and coming close in OH and/or TX. If he still holds a delegate lead coming out of Mar 4, the rest of the schedule is favorable to him, and I think being ahead late and winning the late contests will make it hard for Clinton to make her case.

[thevoiceofreason]

10. He's fine if he "loses" 51-49. Split the delegates

That way, his bigger wins in the states she ignores (since her campaign still thinks it's a 17 state race) put him on top.

[harun]

15. Georgia and South Carolina (n/t)

(Sorry thought you meant in the GE)

[Obamaniac]

16. Easy...

...by winning every where else.

There are 20+ nominating contests coming up.

BTW, I don't think Hillary will win in Ohio. Maybe Texas, but not Ohio.

Hillary has only won 11 contests so far, to Obama's 16. The popular vote is split pretty evenly so far: Hillary 50.2% to Obama's 49.8%. Hillary is aided by the fact that she has won in larger states, even though Obama has actually won more states covering a larger geography of the country. If Obama wins say 16 out of the next 22 states (which is entirely possible - it's possible he may win more than that), that means that:

1) Obama will have won 30 to 35 primary contests.

2) Most likely Obama will have won the popular vote nationally when it is completely averaged.

3) Obama most certainly would have won more of the allocated delegates assigned after primaries.

Can you imagine the furor if, despite winning all three of those things I mention above, Hillary should win the nomination --- why? Because she won 4 out of the 5 largest states?

You honestly think that her campaign would have any legitimacy if that were to happen?

[snooper2]

17. Snippet of how Texas Dem Primary Works...

Texas has 228 Democratic delegates that will be won through a complex process of primaries in 31 state Senate districts, along with the courting of superdelegates. A quarter of the overall delegate total is awarded through precinct conventions held immediately after the voting.

[David Zephyr]

18. Texas and Ohio will be an uphill battle for Obama. If anyone can do it, he can.

It still will be tough.

[Alhena]

20. That would be a big deal if they were winner take all ...

but they aren't. Hillary will probably win Texas by 10 percent or so and Ohio by 8 and end up with more delegates than Obama but not dramatically more.

You need to get out of the "big state" mentality- that doesn't apply in a race where Obama will get significant support in each state.

[thevoiceofreason]

34. Texas will be closer than that.

[cali]

21. Here's how, sweetie:

He comes within 10 points in each state and cleans up in February. He also wins Vt and RI. Easy. I'm sure that answer thrills you to pieces. It's accurate too.

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. He wins a shitload of states and gets a good split in those?

It's not winner take all, delegate-wise.

[in_cog_ni_to]

23. They're bringing in the big guns while in Texas and Ohio:

[OzarkDem]

29. ...

:scared: :scared: :scared: :rofl:

[Bok_Tukalo]

36. Kool-Aid is not the big gun

[loveangelc]

26. I dont know why everyone thinks he's going to lose OH.

a lot can change in a month...if the momentum is with Obama for Feb. you don't expect polls to change?

If I were Obama, I would start trying to do what he did in Iowa and win over rural voters in the state and start doing that early. The cities have very large african american populations and I'm not sure they will turn their support to Clinton simply because a congresswoman endorsed her...

[underpants]

37. He has repeatedly displayed the ability to close gaps

and out right win.

Lots of time between now and Ohio and if he does any where near as well as he is supposed to in February he is going to hit that ground running ...oh and with a fist full of cash

[Radical Activist]

27. He uses the remaining February states to make Hillary look like a looser.

Her campaign could effectively die out before we get to March.

If I were Obama I would send a ton of staff to Cleveland and turn out the black vote. I'd also look for an endorsement from Jerry Springer. I know people will laugh but he will pull votes in rural Ohio.

[loveangelc]

32. jerry springer endorsed clinton actually lol.

if i were obama, like i said, i would do what he did in iowa and look for votes in rural areas. the big cities have somewhat large black populations, and there's as much as, if not more of, a % of african americans in ohio than missouri...

[Radical Activist]

43. doh!

That kind of surprises me. Jerry is pretty progressive.

[Perky]

28. Hillary should win both but Obama still gets 45% or so

That probably is not quite enough to offset the bump he is going to get in the intervening primaries.

PA and North Carolina are going t be far more determinative.

[Moloch]

33. Obama will win Ohio...

He's won every midwestern state, except Michigan where he wasn't on the ballot.

[CalebHayes]

35. It isn't winner take all.

How does Clinton over come losses like 80% to 20% in ID?

[madrchsod]

39. more people vote for him than hillary?

so far obama has won the battle of the rust belt, wisconsin ,indiana ohio are the only states left

[Coexist]

40. He's going for it... no holds barred, boots on the ground:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/1/124543/1892

Barack Obama has continued to make sizeable gains into Hillary Clinton’s lead in the Lone Star State. Results are from polls of previous Texas Democratic primary voters conducted by IVR, an automated telephone polling company. They are the only company consistently polling in Texas, to my knowledge.

Primary Polling in Texas by IVR
1.31.08 1.10.08 12.11.07
Obama 38% 28% 17%
Clinton 48% 46% 51%
Edwards n/a 14% 15%
Undecided 10% 10% 6%


Over the past seven weeks, that amounts to a 24-point swing in Obama's favor, and Obama is poised to keep gaining on Clinton as election day nears in March 4.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/7/9151/60691

150+ show up for 1st Obama Training in Houston

Obama officials said he would open 10 offices around the state including Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and in the Rio Grande Valley.

The campaign named Adrien Saenz, a former aide to Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, to be its state director, and Mitch Stewart, who directed Obama's Iowa grass roots operations, to be Texas field director.

Another veteran of the Iowa campaign, Josh Ernest, a 1997 Rice University graduate who worked on former Houston Mayor Lee Brown's 1997 campaign, was named communications director.

"The ground team that has been on board since Iowa is parachuting in tonight (Wednesday)," said Juan Garcia, a Texas state lawmaker from Corpus Christi who attended Harvard Law School with Obama.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5520230.html

Tewes is in Ohio already - he brough Iowa to Obama.

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/the_next_two_weeks_then_ohio_bound

Also, as mentioned last night, the new Obama Ohio campaign manager has boots on the ground in the Buckeye State (starting yesterday). Paul Tewes lead the successful Iowa campaign and is one of Obama's top generals. His assignment to Ohio shows the campaign is ready for a tough fight here, and that they're committing some of their strongest talent to the state to try and fight Clinton's institutional support (and couteract the Governor's impact). Expect a long, hard fight. I've yet to find out who'll be leading up team Clinton (if you know, give me a heads up).

Also, I've been informed the Obama campaign will be opening campaign offices across the state by week's end. The Cleveland office may actually be up and running by the end of the day today. Stay tuned, because we're getting swarmed as a state starting TODAY, and I'll be breaking stuff as it comes in.

[Tatiana]

41. I think he needs at least one of those states. n/t