Hillary may lose her edge among superdelegates

[Alhena]

Hillary has her large lead among superdelegates mainly because she was thought to be the inevitable candidate early on and some superdelegates wanted to get on board early. Thus, it's a safe bet that her early pledged delegates are heavily composed of political opportunists, and such people are notorious for changing their loyalties with the shifting political winds. And it's going to be very difficult for Hillary to stifle the winds of enthusiasm which will be blowing in from Obama supporters, assuming he does as well in the next month as pundits expect him to.

Another factor is that Hillary plays well with the blue collar workers, while Obama plays well with the elites and highly educated. And the superdelegates are mainly composed of members of that elite. I can guarantee you that Hillary has superdelegates who watch Obama give a speech and wonder how they can switch to him. Obama's natural constituency is people just like superdelegates- highly educated liberal Democrats. Why do you think Kennedy and Kerry both endorsed Obama even though most of the blue collar workers in Massachusetts voted for Hillary? Most superdelegates will WANT to vote for Obama, on a personal level, I can just about guarantee it.

Even if Hillary keeps most or all of her superdelegates, there are still a lot of unpledged delegates, and I expect most of them will follow the marching orders from the national party. And the national party will likely put its behind-the-scenes influence on the side of the candidate most likely to win in the general election. And that candidate is widely regarded as being Obama- a recent Washington state poll shows Obama beating McCain by 15 while Hillary ties him.

I expect that Hillary's superdelegates will be laying low to see how things develop, but Obama has a big advantage in that his best states are all in the next month, while Hillary has to wait for Texas and Ohio in March. So the bottom line is that, as an Obama supporter, I'm content to let the superdelegate process play out. It seems undemocratic, but the rules were set going into the game, and I'm not at all convinced that Obama won't win over most of the superdelegates if he does as well as I expect in the next month.

[russian33]

1. what are tonite's lottery numbers? please!!

"I can guarantee you that Hillary has superdelegates who watch Obama give a speech and wonder how they can switch to him."

:rofl:

if you know that, you gotta know the numbers...come on! i'll give you a cut!

[Alhena]

3. Have you TALKED with highly educated democrats lately?

That's the group I associate with and they are overwhelmingly enamored with Obama, just as I am. They tend to respect Hillary and will vote for her glady in the general, but there's nothing like the excitement I see from Obama.

[dbackjon]

7. So you are saying that anyone that supports Clinton is a dumbass?

While there are some good points, your tone is insulting. All the highly educated Democrats I know (including me), have reservations about Obama.

[Alhena]

11. I'm saying look at the exit polls ...

the candidates themselves project Hillary to do well in blue collar states like West Virginia and Ohio, while they expect Obama to do well in more educated states like Wisconsin.

I'm just stating the reality of the situation - highly educated voters tend to favor Obama. Certainly there are many exceptions, but that's the general trend.

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. And I'm saying, look at the POPULAR VOTE. MORE citizens voted for Hillary.

Sorry.

[Alhena]

19. Check back in a month- Obama will have a large lead

in the popular vote by then. It all depends on when you look at the data.

[Obamaniac]

20. SPIN SPIN SPIN

Hillary BARELY WON the popular vote. As in by less than one half of one percent.

But keep spinning there Rumpelstilskin.

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. SPIN SPIN SPIN....she DID win the POPULAR vote. Can't handle the truth?

Too fucking bad. The people voted, your guy didn't get the popular vote. Period.

[in_cog_ni_to]

16. OHHHHHHH! You talked to highly educated Democrats! Well, that settles it then!

:banghead:

[russian33]

24. i have a bachelor's degree, i guess that's not highly enough?

well shuks, me and my dumb college graduated edumacated friends all go for Hill...doh

[BellaLuna]

25. How arrogant of you

Seriously.

There are plenty of highly educated people who disagree with you so just because the group YOU associate with supports Obama does not mean ALL highly educated people do.

So, some hard working stiff with only a HS diploma who suppports Hillary is beneath you and your associates? What BS.


I've got a college degree and earned it the hard way and I disagree with your arrogant and pompous assumption.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

2. I very much disagree with the sentiment that Obama is more likely to win the general.

Everybody knows what there is to know about Clinton. To the general electorate Obama is fairly unknown. Once the negative campaign begins I could easily see his approval drop like crazy.

[TheWraith]

4. The Clintons have been running nothing but negative for months. Obama's only continued to rise.

Compare that to Hillary Clinton who starts out with a 48% negative rating, and a 15 year history of baggage.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

5. If you think she has run a negative campaign.

You must not have been active in the 2004 campaign.

[Alhena]

8. It's nothing Hillary has done, it's the excitement Obama is causing

she simply can not match that excitement. She's going to have to be like a firefighter the next month, trying to stop a raging inferno from spreading.

I don't underestimate her political skills, so she may pull it off, but I'd put Obama's chances at 60-40 right now.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

12. Not interested in excitement, sorry.

[TheWraith]

13. Hey, why not get Al Gore to run again? Or John Kerry?

After all, it's not like being excited and drawing in new voters is a good thing.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

27. I thought Kerry was on your team?

[TheWraith]

28. I like Kerry, but he's far from what you'd call an inspiring candidate.

And inspiration in our leaders is something we should look for. Not an adherence to blandness and the status quo.

[TheWraith]

10. Quite active, thank you. Let's run down the list:

"Blacks only" candidate, drug user, drug dealer, Muslim manchurian candidate, buddies with a slum lord, just like Bush, lightweight, ambitious, sexist, voter fraud... the list of smears goes on for awhile.

That's not a negative campaign?

[cali]

9. No. Everyone doesn't know all there is to know about the Clintons

There was a front page NYT story just last week about some of Bill's questionable doings. There are rumors that he's been screwing around that will play if she's the nominee. There are the Clinton Library donors. There's an ongoing trial in CA re Peter Paul. There's likely more. And the old stuff is mighty effective. And the entrenched and undeserved hate that so many feel for her just won't be matched by Obama.

[Alhena]

18. Here are the averages of the national polls ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

they show Obama beating McCain by an average of %0.7 and Hillary losing to him by an average of %1.8.

Not a huge difference, but it's not to be dismissed either.

[incapsulated]

6. This isn't helping your candidate, to be honest

Superdelegates and the "elite" over the base, the working class, the voters isn't a tide I want to ride into the convention on.

I say let Florida and Michigan vote again.

It's not like either candidate has a lock on those States, as of right now.

Voters first. I don't even care if this means my candidate loses.

[sandnsea]

14. I think you're reasoning is way screwy

The only reason Hillary is winning blue collar workers is name recognition and a hope for a return to the perceived prosperity of the 90's. If these folks connected the Clintons foreign business associates with outsourcing, they'd have dropped her like a hot rock. Time is what was working against Obama and nothing more.

[incapsulated]

15. I love you continuing to tell the working class they are clueless

And should listen to your bullshit, like they don't know what the fuck they are doing.

And as if the cult of personality of Obama is based on much more than glam.

Most of his "well educated" supporters can't name a single accomplishment or policy stance of their savior.

[sandnsea]

22. I post accomplishments all the time

All of you Hillary people just keep pretending that what is right in front of your face doesn't exist. You repeat whatever comes out of the media, the whole cult thing is evidence of that.

Working class people do not have time to dig into all the details. The media hasn't said anything about all of the Clintons' ties to Indian and ME businesses. How are working people supposed to know?

[Alhena]

23. Wall Street Journal confirms what I posted .... link

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120234665854049297.html?mod=blog

Superdelegates won't be easy for either candidate to hang on to, though, and they could make the campaign even more contentious. The high-profile superdelegates are likely to stick with their pledges. Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy isn't likely to waver in his support of Sen. Obama, for example, and Washington Sen. Patty Murray isn't likely to withdraw her pledge to Sen. Clinton.

Some superdelegates will need constant wooing, though, and as they are free to switch sides, that would set off battles between the candidates. Mr. Ornstein suggests that smaller-fish superdelegates will continually re-evaluate how either Mr. Obama's or Mrs. Clinton's nomination would affect down-ticket races. Would Mrs. Clinton bring out more Republicans, who could hurt the election chances of Democratic House members, for example, or would she turn out more women, who could help?

[Justice Is Comin]

26. Oh definitely that's what we want

another president that fluffs the elites pillow.

His arrogance and nose up in the air reeks of it too.

I don't want him deciding anything for me ever. I guess that makes me a non eliter. One of the common folk. No wonder I can't stand him.

[calteacherguy]

29. Great post, and food for thought!

:hi:

[TexasObserver]

30. super delegates have to answer to their constituents

Whether elected officials or DNC officials, they have to answer for their actions.