Wall Street Journal: Many Superdelegates May Switch

[Alhena]

Can we dispense with the notion that superdelegates in a particular candidate's camp are firm delegates like those resulting from elections?

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120234665854049297.html?mod=blog

RealClearPolitics.com calculates that 211 superdelegates have announced plans to support Mrs. Clinton, compared with 128 for Mr. Obama, and political experts expect a steady trickle of additional superdelegates to choose sides in an effort to force the party to settle on a nominee.

That would give the superdelegates the balance of power, Mr. Sabato says, but it also would put them in an embarrassing spot. Allowing the party's honchos to decide the nomination would make it look as if the party were returning to days when party bosses controlled the nominating process. Democrats would be even more red-faced if key superdelegates then received big jobs in a new Democratic administration.

But a drawn-out nomination would be equally problematic for the party. It would give the Republican candidate time to begin organizing and fund raising for the November general election if, as expected, the Republicans settle on a candidate this month. And it would give Democrats less time to reconcile after an acrimonious campaign.

Superdelegates won't be easy for either candidate to hang on to, though, and they could make the campaign even more contentious. The high-profile superdelegates are likely to stick with their pledges. Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy isn't likely to waver in his support of Sen. Obama, for example, and Washington Sen. Patty Murray isn't likely to withdraw her pledge to Sen. Clinton.

Some superdelegates will need constant wooing, though, and as they are free to switch sides, that would set off battles between the candidates. Mr. Ornstein suggests that smaller-fish superdelegates will continually re-evaluate how either Mr. Obama's or Mrs. Clinton's nomination would affect down-ticket races. Would Mrs. Clinton bring out more Republicans, who could hurt the election chances of Democratic House members, for example, or would she turn out more women, who could help?

[LiberalFighter]

1. The likelihood of super delegates receiving big jobs in the administration is slim by that reason

It is obvious that the writer does not know who makes up the super delegates. They are talking about elected officials mostly that are not likely to accept someone telling them that they will support Clinton or Obama. They will decide based on what they consider important and what they believe.

For the remaining super delegates to have an effect one of the candidates would have to receive an additional 745-838 delegates before the remaining super delegates would put them over the mark. But that would require all 457 remaining super delegates voting for Clinton or Obama. What are the odds of that?