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Edited on Thu Feb-07-08 05:51 PM by Magic Rat
There are certain strengths and weaknesses that both of our candidates possess. As I see it, now with Romney out of the race and McCain the defacto nominee for the GOP, this is how I see that affecting us in the General Election.
:graybox: It will hurt Obama in his attempt to attract Independents, because they will probably split 50/50 or close to it. This wouldn't have been a problem with either Romney or Huckabee, who don't do well with Independents.
:graybox: It will hurt Hillary in her claim that she's experienced, as McCain has both more time in the Senate on domestic and foreign policy issues, but also by virtue of his service in the war, which Romney and Huckabee couldn't claim.
:graybox: It will hurt Obama with his claim of bringing change, because McCain represents the most radical 'change' candidate the GOP has. For evidence of this, look at how much the rabies-wing of the GOP hates him, and how much they DON'T want change in their party.
:graybox: It will help Hillary, because McCain might be the one GOP candidate that even the most hard-core right-winger wouldn't run to the polls to support to keep her from getting in the White House. I heard RWers on the radio floating the theory that letting Hillary get into the White House to mess up so badly the country would be running back to the GOP with open arms in four years might be a silver lining in the mess they're in.
:graybox: It will help Obama with his biggest issue weakness, illegal immigration. His support for drivers licenses for illegal immigrants would KILL him against any other candidate, but McCain is the softest of the Republicans on immigration, so he won't lose much ground there.
:graybox: It will hurt Obama in Southern states with large military populations that also have large amounts of African Americans, like Georgia and the Carolinas.
:graybox: It will hurt Obama in Arizona. Hell, it would hurt both in Arizona, but Obama more since Hillary won that state in the primary.
:graybox: It will help Obama in Montana, where McCain didn't come in first or second in that primary.
:graybox: It will help Obama in Colorado, where he won the caucus HUGE and McCain didn't get 20%.
:graybox: It will help Hillary in Arkansas, since Huckabee won't be the nominee, providing he's not the VP.
:graybox: It will help Obama in North Dakota, where he got over 60% of the vote and McCain got 23%.
:graybox: It will hurt both candidates in New Hampshire.
:graybox: It will help both candidates in Iowa.
:graybox: It will help Obama in Alaska, where he won 75% of the caucus and McCain got beat by Romney, Huckabee and even Ron Paul.
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So that's how I see McCain being the nominee affecting the race.
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