More detail from today's Gallup poll

[mohc]

The Gallup Tuesday Briefing was just released with some more detail on today's poll which showed Kerry beating Bush 52-44 among likely voters, or 50-44-2 with Nader in the race. Gallup broke down the numbers by Blue states, Red states, and what they call Purple states (those where the margin was within 5%). In Blue states Kerry leads 55-42, in Red states Bush barely wins 50-47. But in the ever so crucial Purple states Kerry is leading 55-39. There is definitely going to be more error in this breakdown than the base MoE due to it being smaller samples for each state type, but it definitely bodes well.

Also on certainty of vote, among likely voters the breakdown is 45-7-6-38 (certain Kerry, lean Kerry, lean Bush, certain Bush). With another 4% undecided, this election is going to come down to that 17% that is not yet certain, and we only need 5% of that to win.

[Melodybe]

1. Nice...

It feels like lots of people are starting to pay attention.

Yay, us!


:kick:

[LeftCoast]

2. Did they mention which states where what color?

I'd love to see the breakdown. Got a link?

[LeftCoast]

3. This may be the poll you were talking about

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=10942

[Mairead]

4. And the significant statement is...

Last November, Bush's approval had slipped to just above its current level. But after his Thanksgiving visit to Iraq, followed shortly thereafter by the capture of Saddam Hussein, public approval jumped 13 points. With the intensified campaigning in the Iowa caucuses, as Democratic candidates vigorously criticized the president, Bush's approval took a nosedive, reaching the lowest levels of his presidency.

If he does a little theater, he gets a *big* bump. So I'd guess we'll see something in mid-/late-October.

[dusty64]

5. Excellent, gallup

polls also seem to skew to the right. There is something odd about Kerry doing better in swing states than solid blue ones however, whats up with that?