State of Washington: Obama 50%, Clinton 45%

[marcellobarrios]

Among 598 registered Democrats, ahead of the Washington caucus in a poll released today by SUSA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-ad7bd6f68a86&q=45617

Are independents and Republicans not allowed to vote here?

[Windy]

1. Lets not look at polls this time. They've been wrong consistently this year.

Whatever happens, happens!

[Alhena]

2. Independents may caucus, not republicans, I believe

[neutron]

3. STOP SPAMMING. This is BS

[UALRBSofL]

4. Obama will win by more then that, it's a caucus

And his supporters will strong arm the Clinton supporters. :)

[tyne]

5. They won't

"strong arm" them, they'll just actually show up. :)

I bet it'll be 65% 33%...Obama.

[johnnydrama]

6. no wonder

No wonder these polls are always wrong. 598 people? That's very low for a poll.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Not for a state poll

Almsot all state polling this season has been 500-700

National polls tend to be around 11100

[jefferson_dem]

8. 1100.

:)

[usregimechange]

9. Damn, Clinton could win there... Not that polls can be trusted but...

[Renew Deal]

10. Indies can caucus in Washington

"There is no party registration in Washington. Upon signing in at the caucus you will need to attest that you are a Democrat to participate, but you can switch your affiliation just for Caucus Day. You can be an Independent, Republican, Green, Libertarian or anything else the next day."

So I wonder if this is a poll of Democrats or people that are caucusing. It says Democrats.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Among those who say they will caucus as Democrats, Obama has a 2:1 advantage over Clinton

Among those who say they will caucus as Democrats, Obama has a 2:1 advantage over Clinton, 63% to 33%. Those numbers show up in the crosstab for question #2. The numbers should be interpreted with caution.

Filtering: 1,250 state of WA adults were interviewed 02/07/08 and 02/08/08. Of them, 1063 were registered to vote. Of them, 598 identify themselves as Democrats, 433 identify themselves as Republicans. Of the Democrats, 234 said they were likely to caucus as Democrats. Of the Republicans, 108 said they were likely to caucus as Republicans.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-ad7bd6f68a86

[Dumak]

22. I don't see quite a 2:1 advantage for obama

In Minnesota and Colorado, after polls showed them to be more or less even, the Obama to Clinton vote ratio was 2:1. I think a fair amount of that was due to the caucuses being held in the evening hours, where it would seem a little less inviting for someone over 50 to attend a caucus meeting in the dark. Younger people are a little less intimidated by the dark, icy sidewalks.

In WA, the caucus is at 1pm, and the over-50 crowd is going to find that a little more acceptable.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[windbreeze]

12. The last time I looked at where this state stood....

Clinton was going to take Washington...what happened?? wb

[UALRBSofL]

13. It's the youth vote that doesn't have good judgment

That's voting for Obama. :)

[tyne]

14. It's the Clinton

voters who can't even invest a couple hours of their time to caucus.

But they sure can invest the time to whine.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

15. Or the ones who have to work Saturday afternoons

[tyne]

16. Or

Super Tuesday nights.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

19. Yes.

[NJSecularist]

20. You're right, Obama supporters don't work

:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[Blue_State_Elitist]

21. Look at the each candidates base of support.

I don't see why there is any argument about this. Hillary tends to win large primary states while Obama tends to win small caucus states from coast to coast. There is something going on here. If it has nothing to do with Hillary's base being made up of a large number of working class Democrats, tell me what it is.

[Dumak]

23. Clinton made a huge effort ...

to get people to vote absentee/early in the primary states. Many of them cast their votes without knowing who this "Obama" character was. Her demographic - women over 50, includes a lot of people with caregivers who make sure they get an absentee ballot in their hands, and will help them fill it out if necessary.

[newmajority]

17. I don't know who manufactured those numbers

Hillary has never had a lot of support here.

[windbreeze]

24. I am amazed really...

either that or something else...because the map I saw of the us..and which way which states would go...had Wash going to Clinton...and that was a couple weeks ago...wb

[HughMoran]

18. Hillary was behind by 13 points just 4 days ago.

2-4-08


2-8-08