sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:03 AM
Original message |
Do we all still think Hillary is going to win Maine tomorrow? |
|
I'm not looking for chest puffing, but am seriously wondering. I was under the impression that she is supposed to win this - am I wrong? I ask because I see a number of threads saying Obama is easily going to win everything from now till March 4.
Anyone have any polls from the last day or so (as if these mean anything)?
|
MadBadger
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:04 AM
Response to Original message |
1. No polls, but I think Obama wins by four. |
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. Are you thinking Obama gets the Big Mo from tonight? nt |
MadBadger
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM
Original message |
Well yes, but I just dont see how this is such a pro-Hillary state. |
NWHarkness
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message |
20. Usually, Maine votes like New Hampshire |
|
So that's one reaon the pundits think Clinton is favored.
An interesting factor will be how French catholic voters go. Most people think they'll favor Hillary, and that means she takes Lewiston big. But who knows?
|
gateley
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
13. Yes (even though you weren't asking me). nt |
JVS
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:05 AM
Response to Original message |
3. Is Maine winner take all? |
MadBadger
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
11. No state is winner take all. |
JVS
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
16. In the GOP Maine Primary it looked to be winner take all |
MadBadger
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #16 |
28. Our rules are different. |
JVS
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #28 |
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
|
If Hillary loses Maine, I think her outside shot at Virginia pretty much goes up in smoke. And if Obama sweeps here, it will be really hard for Hillary to stop him in Wisconsin, which of course would make Obama's chances of winning in Texas better.
But if Hillary wins Maine, even if there are no real delegate advantages, I think she can make the case that she's still in the game for the upcoming states prior to March 4.
|
JVS
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
23. I agree. If she wants to stop a chain of dominoes from falling, she needs a win somewhere in the... |
Windy
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:05 AM
Response to Original message |
4. I don't ever count on anything. To do so, is to become weak in the fight in my opinion. n/t |
NJSecularist
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM
Response to Original message |
5. If Hillary's camp is sweating, then you know all you need to know about Maine |
|
She isn't the prohibitive favorite that everybody thought she was.
|
NWHarkness
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM
Response to Original message |
6. Polls wouldn't matter anyway |
|
Edited on Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM by NWHarkness
When you are expecting to double or even triple previous turnouts, accurate polling is impossible.
We had about 160 here (Belfast Me) in 2004, we are expecting between 300-400 tomorrow.
|
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
32. great point...the turnout totals pretty much kill polls...nt |
VolcanoJen
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM
Response to Original message |
7. Hillary does great back east. |
|
I think it will be a nailbiter.
|
Colobo
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM
Response to Original message |
8. Hillary will win tomorrow by 5%. |
book_worm
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:06 AM
Response to Original message |
9. We will find out soon enough. |
graywarrior
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:07 AM
Response to Original message |
10. Mainers aren't swayed the way we think they should be. |
|
They're such independent thinkers. Could go either way.
|
skooooo
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:07 AM
Response to Original message |
|
...I thought Obama was favored.
|
TexasObserver
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:08 AM
Response to Original message |
14. I suppose she could win Maine, but I think he'll win it. |
|
Anywhere he gets sufficient coverage and time to meet the public, he wins.
|
WillyT
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message |
17. Some Analysis For You: |
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #17 |
27. Thanks! I guess there just isn't anything definitive about... |
|
these smaller states. We get spoiled by the early contests...I don't think the news organizations were really prepared for the race to go this far.
|
scheming daemons
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message |
18. Election markets have Obama trading at 67 for Maine, Hillary at 40... |
|
...so the money is on Obama.
|
Bonobo
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message |
19. Maine is a conservative east coast state. Hillary will win. |
bilgewaterbill
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message |
21. Intrade has Obama a near 3-to-1 favorite today. |
|
Up a bit from yesterday. They were way wrong on New Hampshire, however.
|
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #21 |
24. Intrade is pretty much discredited I think...they are as bad on politics as |
|
most regular people are on the stock market. The initial allure of this idea made sense, but clearly they are truly poor predictors.
|
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:09 AM
Response to Original message |
22. Is Hillary spending money in Maine - ads and staff? |
NWHarkness
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
|
We are getting a lot of ads for both candidates on the Bangor stations.
|
sfam
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #26 |
30. Cool - thanks! What's your feeling on the ground there? |
|
Do you see real support for one or the other? How's the local coverage playing this?
|
NWHarkness
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #30 |
33. I think the local coverage has been very fair |
|
Good coverage both campaign's events, nice interviews. Maine people have great bullshit detectors, and the local media knows it.
Here in Waldo county, I predict a solid Obama win. Dems here are generally very progressive. If Kucinich and Edwards were still in it, they'd both draw heavily here.
Statewide, I think it will be close, but Portland and Lewiston are the big Dm strongholds and from what I hear, both favor Clinton.
|
meow mix
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:11 AM
Response to Original message |
25. itll be too close to call forever... |
|
and then hillary will win by like 100 votes. that would really suck badly and its kinda what i expect.
|
Quixote1818
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:12 AM
Response to Original message |
29. Who won the NH counties on the Maine border? nt |
Guaranteed
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Feb-10-08 12:43 AM
Response to Original message |
34. Yeah, I'm thinking Clinton by about 20. nt |
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Wed May 01st 2024, 01:11 PM
Response to Original message |