The conventional wisdom is Clinton will win PA

[bigdarryl]

With the primary two months away I'm not to sure about this Clinton has a sizable lead over Obama but most polled say they could change there minds. And if Obama keeps winning states like he is all bet are off http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/keystone-poll-pennsylvania-primary-polls-jan2008.pdf
keystone-poll-pennsylvania-primary-polls-jan2008.pdf (application/pdf Object)

[book_worm]

1. I think the winner in PA will be the candidate with the momentum at that time.

[Arkana]

2. I do too--and I think OH and TX may turn out that way as well.

[Alhena]

5. If she doesn't win TX and Ohio big, there may not be a PA primary

there are 6 dead weeks prior to PA and if Hillary disappoints on March 4 there will be a lot of pressure on her to concede.

[Alhena]

3. There is a 6 week dead period prior to Pennsylvania

the Mississippi primary follows shortly after the March 4 primaries, then it's 6 weeks of no primaries until Pennsylvania.

That means Obama gets to camp out there and work his charm on the voters. I doubt he'll win it, but he'll cut her margin of victory. It's a closed primary, though which is good for Hillary. Obama really needs to register a lot of young and black voters prior to the registration deadline of March 16.

[Hutzpa]

15. This is the same crap

that gets spill over to M$M, same type of talking thrash point.

Sometimes I just wonder....

[Barack_America]

17. I believe the deadline is March 24.

And, yes, that is exactly what my group in Philly is focusing on.

[bigdarryl]

4. Mark my word she will not carry Philly not with that large African American pop even though...

the Mayor Micheal Nutter has endorsed her. I don't think that is going to matter.

[kentuck]

6. I can remember when the conventional wisdom was...

that Hillary was the "inevitable" nominee. I don't know if that is true now?

[Proud2BAmurkin]

7. No way Clinton loses PA

[Alhena]

10. She has to win it big- a 5 point win is a loss for her

[blogslut]

8. It ain't going that far

It will be over soon. I expect her to drop out before March 4.

[Renew Deal]

9. The election will not go that long.

Dean will end this after March 4.

[scheming daemons]

11. There are 6 weeks between the last March Primary and PA's...

Give Obama six weeks to set up camp in a state, with his money..... he'll pull in 85% of the Philly vote.... split Pittsburgh 50-50.... and Hillary will edge him in the VERY conservative (and very racist) center by about 55-45.


If the Philly vote comes out in big numbers, he will win.


There's no way that....given six weeks and a bottomless pit of donations to concentrate on ONE state, that Obama will not close the deal.


I've lived in PA all my life.... I know this state. If the vote were today, Hillary would win about 53-47....but the vote isn't today.

By the time April 22 comes around, Hillary might be on life support and Obama will be swimming in cash from all the momentum he's built up.



PA might not matter.... but if it does... and Obama gets to campaign here for 6 straight weeks.... he'll win. He'll definitely win.

[Barack_America]

12. There are some of us who will be working hard to fight conventional wisdom.

We're already at work in Philly.

[K Gardner]

16. Yay Kristi !!

[ShadowLiberal]

13. I think one of them will drop out by then

I don't think that the party heads will want to wait until PA votes to decide this thing. I think that one of them will drop out of the race by then because of pressure from the party heads who want to get the party unified under one candidate ASAP, because the longer those two fight each other in the primary the harder it'll be for either of them to beat John McCain in November.

[harun]

14. No way it will still be undecided at that time, Hillary and Dean both said so (n/t)

[Lugnut]

18. She'll have to do it without my vote.

I'm writing in John Edwards.