McCain-Obama Race Could Redraw Electoral Map: South in Play, New Math in West?

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: McCain-Obama Race Could Redraw Electoral Map
Black Turnout Might Put South in Play; New Math in West
By LAURA MECKLER
February 15, 2008; Page A7

In recent presidential elections, the electoral map largely has been fixed, with certain regions predictably loyal to one party or another and the competition narrowed to fewer than 20 battleground states. But Barack Obama's success in rallying African-Americans and John McCain's difficulty with conservative evangelicals raise an intriguing question: Would a general election between the two put additional states -- particularly in the South -- into play?...

***

This year, political strategists say Virginia, which already is trending Democratic, could be pushed across the line. Other possibilities include North Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Mr. Obama himself made the claim back in August. "I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," he told a voter in New Hampshire who was skeptical of his general-election appeal. At that time, he predicted that black voter turnout would balloon by at least 30% nationwide if he won the presidential nomination. The Democratic primaries to date offer evidence to support the claim. Overall Democratic participation in primaries to date has shattered records and overwhelmed Republican turnout. In some states, African-American turnout has swelled even more dramatically....

At the same time, Mr. McCain, the senator from Arizona, has an uphill climb with evangelical Christians and other conservatives who make up much of the base of his party....On the other hand, Mr. McCain might enter a race versus Mr. Obama with an advantage among Hispanic voters. During the primaries so far, Mr. McCain has done well with Hispanics, while Mr. Obama has not. That could change the calculations in the Rocky Mountain West, Republican territory where Democrats have seen an opening.

In the South, many analysts see Virginia as a state where either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton could make a serious run, but where Mr. Obama's appeal to African-Americans could offer an extra boost....Another possibility: North Carolina, where Democrats control the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature. Mr. McCain is likely to win, but Mr. Obama could put up a fight, said Ferrel Guillory, an expert on Southern politics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "Republicans would have to defend the state if it's Obama," he said.

Analyst Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report was more skeptical of the idea that Mr. Obama could contend in the South, especially in states such as Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. "White voters in Mississippi don't vote Democratic. They just don't," said Mr. Cook. He also believes that the greater the black turnout, the more anti-Democratic white voters become. Possible exceptions include Florida and Virginia.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120304264630870683.html

[OHdem10]

1. Charlie Cook has this right on, IMO