Polls are fun...but haven't we learned they aren't accurate anymore?

[Mother Of Four]

1) More people using cell phones as a primary line
2) Do not call lists
3) Many registered as Indy or Undeclared
4) Open Primary states


It's a cool feeling to see your person ahead in a poll, but the fact of the matter is this- especially when poll numbers are all over the place, the only thing it does is feed misinformation.

This is what I forsee happening in this Primary Election, and it's not based on polls.

First, there isn't really a way for HRC to recover after 8 straight losses. The best she can hope for is to win around a 50/40 in TX and OH as it stands right now. If Obama wins the next few before TX and OH, stick a fork in the Primary folks...it's done.

This isn't something I say with glee, or eat with a heavy dose of celebratory chocolate. I wanted my vote to count this year in NC, and once again it won't if this is the case.

Here are the things alot of voters are going to be looking at, and what I see as some of the reasons this is happening to the HRC campaign.

1) If you are in dire straights in a campaign, people will naturally think "Wow...if X can't run this, how are they going to govern a country?" (even though they are two completely different animals)

2) We as a people are tired of all the backbiting, stabbing hidden by a hug, smarmy platitudes. I honestly think the biggest mistake of the HRC campaign wasn't the comments or mailers...It what is now coined as "The BFF tour"

3) Two words...Bill Clinton. He naturally overshadows HRC because lets face it guys, he has charisma that just won't quit. By placing him out there as visible as he was, it showed how different the two are. Many who were voting for HRC, were actually voting for Bill. By allowing this to continue, it brought what was iconic about Bill down into the dirt. A place people didn't want him to be, and certainly didn't want to follow.

4) Holding Loyalty higher value than skill. Lets put this in some real world situation that can be comparable, say you were accused of some heinous crime. Would you want a person that believed in you, but was a paralegal? Or would you want the best lawyer out there that would fight for you tooth and nail, even if they thought you were guilty? Most people would look at the person with the Paralegal and say "Uhm..have they lost their mind?"

5) Not having a backup plan for after Feb 5th. This is going to sharply remind people of things our government has done or had happen without a backup plan. Sept 11, getting involved in Iraq, the whole "Mission Accomplished", Katrina, etc.

6) Not understanding the power of the internet, yes...the campaign used it for things like their website and youtube. But neglected to take into account the blistering speed that news travels on the net. In the 90's it could take weeks for something to filter down to the roots, now it takes hours. This will make people step back and think the campaign is out of touch.


I could write alot longer, but after re-reading this it's going to seem like a flame against HRC. It's not, I've gone from never wanting to pull a lever for her to knowing I can if it comes to it because she'll be a damn sight better than McCain or Huckabee. It's simply an analysis from a political junkie, and MY OWN perceived stumbling blocks in the HRC campaign.

The fact of the matter is, Polls aren't really that reliable anymore. Public perception changes too quickly to depend on them.

[Araxen]

1. +1

[damntexdem]

2. Hmm, I'm not sure -- let's have a poll about it.

;-)