Survey USA Texas Poll: Hillary 50 Obama 45

[Herman Munster]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-02f3bc9ab73c

[loveangelc]

1. :)

[Renew Deal]

2. Amazing

Obama is within striking distance, and he can maybe win on delegates. :wow:

[GarbagemanLB]

3. almost tied and Obama hasn't even touched down yet!

This is gonna be awesome.

[Johnny__Motown]

, thanks. He seems to have closed the gap nicely

[TexasObserver]

4. not surprised ... wait until election day ... Obama for the WIN

[LordJFT]

5. bad news for Hillary

if she only wins by 5% she's done. And Obama hasn't even started to campaign there yet.

[scheming daemons]

6. Thanks Herman! She was up by 15 just a week ago!

What great news for the Obama campaign!


Hillary needs to win Texas by at last 10% in order to make a big enough dent in Obama's lead.


Amazing that Herman wasted one of his three threads posting GOOD Obama news!


Maybe he's coming around....

[GarbagemanLB]

7. LOL

[NJSecularist]

8. My initial thought is that they overrepresented Latinos and underrepresented blacks

Hispanics - 32% of the turnout
Blacks - 18% of the turnout

Those are their numbers.

I just don't see it. 2004 primary exit poll data for Texas shows that there was 22% black turnout. I expect even more black turnout this year.

[Herman Munster]

15. actually they may have underestimated hispanics

Hillary's camp expects hispanic turnout to be 40% or greater.

Texas was a done deal for Bush in 2004 and hispanic turnout was low and lots more hispanics have registered in the last 4 years.

[NJSecularist]

17. Link?

There is absolutely no way Hillary will get 40% Hispanic turnout.

Absolutely no way.

There was 25% Hispanic turnout in the 2004 Texas primaries. That is what I expect this year, maybe a bit more.

But 40%. No fucking way.

[Renew Deal]

29. Hispanics haven't shown up in Texas.

I think it's an average of 19%.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

57. Why not 70%

Or 80%?

So long as you've digressed from reality, you might as well have fun with it.

[scheming daemons]

9. First time in my life I ever recommended a Herman thread!

lol.

[Iktomiwicasa]

60. Herman's full of good news for Obama

Thanks Herman!:toast:

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Survey USA overall has a good track record and I think this is about right

I think it may be getting close but I'm suspicious of any poll that has Obama leading in Texas at this point. It's still two weeks before March 5th and Obama tends to close the gap in the last few weeks.

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Don't we have a debate coming up soon?

[loveangelc]

12. I'm going to say that they may be underestimating crossover voting.

idk for sure tho. it is amazing that he's risen that much in a week tho. theyre underestimating the black vote somewhat too it seems, i think there will be record african american turnout in tx.

[mckeown1128]

13. I have come to trust SUSA more then the other polls...

So this means a LOT more than the CNN poll that shows Obama 2 points behind. This is bad news for Hillary.

[Araxen]

14. A poll I think I can trust

The CNN poll is nice to look at but it's hard to stomach Obama catching up without even being in the state really.

[BeyondGeography]

16. Be very afraid, Herman

:scared:

[Colobo]

20. I bet he is! Obama might win Texas!

[Thrill]

18. 20 point lead gone just like that. And Obama hasn't even campaigned there

[woolldog]

19. Very nice.

Happy to see this poll. SUSA seems to be pretty accurate.

[MadBadger]

21. Thanks Hermy!

[NJSecularist]

22. Texas is not a Hillary Clinton firewall

Not by any stretch of the imagination. Never has. Never will.

Ohio is the only firewall Hillary has.

[XemaSab]

73. The purpose of a firewall is not to stop the fire

but to give you more time to escape.

[MadBadger]

23. I Never Understand this. He leads among Indies and Repukes, while she leads among dems, BUT

He leads amont Liberals and she leads among conservatives and moderates.

[CTLawGuy]

48. dems in TX tend to be conservatives or moderates

NT

[scheming daemons]

24. Seriously.. .how bad must things be for Hillary when HERMAN, of all people, is...

posting threads showing that Hillary's huge lead in Texas has evaporated?


Wow. I'm sure Herman thought this was a pro-Hillary thread he was creating.... but this gives me extreme optimism, as an Obama supporter, for Texas.


Hermie... you da man!

[Colobo]

30. Go Herman! Gobama!

[TeamJordan23]

25. Doesn't Hillary have to win both TX and OH by 20 points to catch up? nm

[jackson_dem]

26. No

[MadBadger]

28. But winning by five wont do it.

[jackson_dem]

32. There are plenty of other states after March 4

At this point a win would be a huge momentum boost for Hillary. There are two small states that vote on March 4 too. Things will look a lot different if she sweeps all four, even if she doesn't win by 20 points in any of them. Obama is considered to be unstoppable now by the msm and his supporters outside the msm.

[MadBadger]

36. Obama will win at least Vermont, and dont be surprised if he takes Rhode Island

[jackson_dem]

49. It is hard to see him winning Rhode Island if he lost Mass. despite having Kenney/Kerry/Patrick

Vermont is rural so he has a better shot there.

[MadBadger]

50. He won CT. Plus, arent there some upscale liberals in Rhode island, Like in Newport?

[jackson_dem]

51. I don't know much about Rhode Island

I wouldn't be shocked if he won Rhode Island but if he does win RI it will likely be in a sweep or a three out of four night for him anyway so Rhode Island won't matter under that scenario anyway. Rhode Island can help Hillary a lot if she can win the big 2 and than add it to the total so Ohio and Texas don't look like aberrations.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

58. Moving the goal posts

Assuming she wins by small margins in all four (a broken premise to begin with), how does that change her delegate situation? In Texas, she's already facing a situation that sees her at a disadvantage with delegate allocation to begin with.

Morale wins don't count at this point.

[NJSecularist]

38. She needs to win both. The margins don't matter.

[Renew Deal]

31. Yes

Though a strong day tomorrow would help.

[jackson_dem]

27. With two debates before Texas and we know how Hill owns Obama in every debate

[Quixote1818]

33. Actually most of the debates are about a wash. No clear winner or loser. nt

[jackson_dem]

With multiple candidates. Two candidate debates can have a significant impact

[NJSecularist]

40. Didn't work out as well as you say in the California debates

[Renew Deal]

34. How did that work out on Super Tuesday?

Hillary lost the day.

[jackson_dem]

42. How do you "lose" when you get about 100,000 more votes?

If it weren't for the debate I believe she would have lost Super Tuesday.

[Renew Deal]

45. Because delegates count

And Hillary lost the day on delegates.

[scheming daemons]

35. After the last debate, Obama won 13 states (out of 22) and more delegates....

...if that's "owning" then give me more of it!

[jackson_dem]

44. And lost by about 100,000 votes (all states are not the same size contrary to Obama mythology)

[Renew Deal]

46. Yes we know. They are "second class."

:eyes:

[jackson_dem]

52. No but it is as dumb to throw the states won number now as it was when the rethugs did in 00' and 04

Land doesn't vote. People do.

[DesEtoiles]

62. yes - the 50 state strategy sucks, according to Hillary

[scheming daemons]

47. All that matters is delegates...... Obama won those.....

...and... before the debate... Hillary was favored to win 12 of the 22 states.... she won 9.


She lost the debate by the only objective measure.... it lost her 3 more states than she expected to.

[jackson_dem]

53. Obama had been surging after South Carolina

The debate didn't cause that. I believe the debate helped her mitigate Obama's surge. We'll find out soon...

[scheming daemons]

54. Wait a minute.... you Hillary supporters spent the days after SC

..telling us that SC was an "anomaly" because of the African-American vote. That there was no "surge".


Second of all.... a week before Super Tuesday, Hillary led in the polls in 20 of the 22 Super Tuesday states.

She ended up winning 9.


Maybe the debate had something to do with that, maybe not. But it is clear that the debate did NOTHING to slow Obama's momentum.... Momentum that you Clinton supporters DENIED THE EXISTENCE OF in the days following SC.


Like your candidate, you are spinning yourself into the ground.

[jackson_dem]

55. I was an Edwards supporter. I only became a Hill supporter recently

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

63. I bet he's totally wishing he had those 100,000 votes now

Rather than, say, his crushing delegate-margin victories across the country.

[CTLawGuy]

37. thats a shitty margin

I'd be really concerned if I were Hill....

[Thepricebreaker]

39. She needs to win MUCH bigger then that, or she is done

Its all about delegates... She has to win 60%+

[jefferson_dem]

41. Wow. Great news for O. SUSA has proven to be the most reliable pollster out there this season.

Not much of a chance Hillary can extend that to the 20-point margin she needs to keep her fledgling hopes alive.

[loveangelc]

43. txxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

sorry :)

[jonathanseer]

56. Keep Dreaming

Obama won't win Texas. Rasmussenreports IS the most accurate pollster to date (over the entire primary season) He has a ways to go.

He is also getting way too many endorsements.

If there is one thing about Texans is that they love to be contrary, and now that the media is talking about Obama as if he's won, Texans generally will vote the opposite.

They're still the #1 biggest supporters of President Bush.

Obama is simply too ultra-liberal for this state - Democrats included.

Of course if he doesn't win, I imagine Obamaniacs will claim Hillary cheated - cheated in the home state of George W. Bush - yeah right.

The Republicans have no reason to help Hillary.

They have said little about Obama, because they figured he would not win.

Now they see he can, they're changing their gun placements as we speak.

Who do you really think is behind the sudden surge of reporting of Obamania - in our VERY CONSERVATIVE Mainstream media.

If you are so silly as to think Clinton is behind it, you'd also have to believe she enjoys being trashed 24/7 by the same media.

The Republicans are licking their chops.

Unlike Clinton, Republithugs do NOT PLAY BY PC RULES

They will use race.

They will call him by his middle name ONLY Hussein over and over and over again.

No it won't sway any Obama supporters, but it will sway a lot of undecideds.

They will use his speech copying to call him a liar. Just like they used Bill's BJ to construe he lied under oath as if it were he were lying about an act of public corruption, not private activity.

They will RELISH AND LOVE the OUTRAGE this causes in Obama supporters. They will not run or shy away from it.

Instead they will point to it as proof positive of what their lackey press says - Obama's supporters are cultish - turning off yet another portion of the voting public.

All to dismissively Obama supporters will say none of that nonsense means a thing to me, and you're right it won't.

The problem is to a large percentage it will mean quite a bit, and those are the people Republithugs will be aiming for, not you. As progressives, they really don't give a damn what we think. They just want to ensure we don't win the presidency.

Obama will hand it to him, because he clearly thinks and his supporters as well that the Republithugs will play fair, play nice and not get super dirty.

Oh they'll get super dirty, dirtier than you've ever seen.

After all they have nothing to lose, but the white house, and as it looks now, it's ours to win or lose.

So the more they can damage the Democratic unity the better.

[loveangelc]

59. RASMUSSEN IS THE MOST ACCURATE?????????? LOL

rasmussen who predicted romney would win california. lol ok.

i didnt read the rest of that crap.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

66. You missed a lot

It was kind of a revelation, except that it wasn't.

[jonathanseer]

68. NO THEY DID NOT Here is the link - I know facts give you a headache

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_republican_presidential_primary

[loveangelc]

71. O OK, they had Romney tied when he lost by double digits.

look at the rankings, Rasmussen is not much higher than ARG...which is pathetic.

[jonathanseer]

70. well then why did you comment? If you don't read a post, who gives a damn what you think

really I believe the respect I get is the proper measure to decide what kind of respect to give.

[NJSecularist]

64. What are you smoking? Rasmussen has been terrible all primary season.

[MadBadger]

65. Prove Rasmussen is the best pollster. I guarantee you are wrong.

[jonathanseer]

69. You canNOT prove a SUBJECTIVE POINT because it's an OPINION

Oh wait, you're an Obama supporter, all that you say is automatically factual, and need not be researched.

By that virtue, all that is contrary to what you effuse is false.

[MadBadger]

72. I'll give you your facts buddy

http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/All_2008_Primary_Report_Card_Thru_021308_median_error.pdf

SurveyUSA is number one, Rasmussen is number 19. Of course you can measure the accuracy of a poll.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

67. It's all a conspiracy!

The Republithuglipiglican's and teh MSM!

They want Obama!

They'll say his middle name!

They'll space their posts just like this!

It will be a travesty!

[DesEtoiles]

61. What does the ARG poll say?