Poll: Hillary's Support Dropping Among Hispanics

[Ichingcarpenter]

the latest Gallup tracking poll shows Hillary's support eroding among Hispanics, a key core constituency...






http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/poll_hillarys_support_dropping.php

[cloudythescribbler]

1. From 31% behind to 4% ahead??? WOW! Gobama!

[Scurrilous]

2. Good news!

:thumbsup:

[Yurem2008]

3. Hillary: "Latinos from TX do not count"

only the ones from California.

[CorpGovActivist]

7. .

[GarbagemanLB]

4. Good news! Go Obama!

[no name no slogan]

5. no lo podemos

nt

[TexasObserver]

12. Incorrecto, cabron! Si se puede!! Obama ganara!!

[EvolveOrConvolve]

6. Obama's momentum is starting to sway Hispanics and it's not surprising

It's human nature to side with the winner, or the person who appears to be heading for the win.

[TexasObserver]

18. It's about understanding the popularity of Obama among jovenes latinas y latinos grandes ciudades.

This isn't about human nature, because I called it before the 10-0 win streak.

It's about understanding that media memes generated by backward looking wonks failed to see the popularity of Obama among jovenes latinas y latinos grandes ciudades.

It's about understanding Democrats in the state of Texas and knowing how they break down.

[TexasObserver]

8. I caught so much hell the past two weeks posting that O would split Hispanics and win Texas

And this week every poll has proved me right.

I don't recall a single poster who told me I was crazy last week on these point admitting this week how right I was.

It's a little thing, but even fellow Obama supporters repeatedly argued with me and told me "but all the polls say ...."

I'm not going to rub it in, but I did tell everyone so, about 30 times in the week before the Wisconsin primary. Search and find out for yourself I hit it on the nose - older Hispanics and the Valley for Clinton, younger Hispanics and the big cities for Obama. About a 50-50 split, while every poll and commentator were saying she was up by 10-25 points overall, and that among Hispanics and she would win them big.

This ain't my first rodeo, not by a long shot. I don't presume to call any other state, but I have consistently said since before Super Tuesday that Obama would win Texas and split Hispanics. He may even win Hispanics by 5 points. I've said every time he would win Texas by 5-15 points, and by more delegates than that.

Anyone still doubting?!

[texas_indy]

9. I was with ya partner! Couldn't understand why they kept saying HRC was loved down here :) .nt

[TexasObserver]

10. VINDICATED!! and it feels so good. VINDICATED, cause it's understood.

(a little homage to Peaches & Herb - sung to REUNITED)

[texas_indy]

16. Wanted to add this in to let them understand the diff between Bill and Hillary down here.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_8235564

"Reyes urged people to show up early because the arena holds 12,000 people, and entrance is on a first-come, first-serve basis."

"In 1996 the Clintons had a rally at the airport with 44,000 people, and what people forget is that we turned away another 12,000 people," Reyes said. "That's how much interest there is."


Hillary is NOT loved down here. Bill is the one they like, not Hillary, and Bill isn't running for president.

She could only do 12,000 when Bill got 44,000 in '96 in the very same place!!

Sorry Hillary, but the Latinos were able to figure that out for themselves.

[flordehinojos]

11. yes ... the illegal ones.

[donheld]

13. God your a mess

Get a grip!

[Binka]

19. Jesus Just Like A Bad Penny

This one keeps showing up.

[jackson_dem]

14. Let's see what happens tonight. Momentum could shift

[cali]

20. It's unlikely

Hillary being a better debater has failed to reduce Obama's momentum before, and he's gotten better. All he has to do is hold his own. And if she's not careful and goes after him in a way viewers perceive as unfair or mean, she'll be screwing herself.

[jackson_dem]

22. It's do or die

The previous debates had multiple candidates. This will only be the second one on one debate. The first one came before Super Tuesday so it is hard to assess what impact it had since so many states voted. It is unlikely she will breakthrough in the debates but it is by far her best chance of changing the dynamics of the race. It is unlikely but not impossible. Kerry was in a similar position in the 2004 general and a great first debate put him back in the contention. Similarly, with the aid of the msm, the debates helped Bush in 2000. In primaries the October MSNBC debate is when Edwards knocked Hillary off the coronation pedestal. If it weren't for that Hillary would already be the nominee. In the 2004 primaries Clark and Dean both suffered greatly during the debates, especially Clark, although Kerry didn't when he was the front runner but Edwards was obviously angling for veep by then.

[dailykoff]

15. She needs to make like the Rosarita lady

and start talking up frijoles!

[Johnny__Motown]

17. Almost everyone is moving to Obama, it is reasonable assume that Hispanics will be no different

Although this seems like a pretty big change. A 17% drop in a week seems like a bit much. Also an 18% increase seems like a bit much.

I don't know of any major gaffe that could account for this big a swing. Unless Hispanics are caught up in the "10 wins in a row" for Obama I think this may be a bad poll.

[dailykoff]

21. Remarkable isn't it?

Hilly the horrible is driving the electorate straight to Obama, and they like what they see.

[jackson_dem]

24. Only in the blogosphere. She still has high favorables with Democrats

It isn't about Hillary but Obama. The shift is pro-Obama, not anti-Hillary. Only among the far left and far right is Hillary viewed as Satan incarnate.

[dailykoff]

26. She's just gotten flattened in the last ten races.

All she has to do is show up in a state and her poll numbers drop. She's a lousy, lousy candidate and that's even before finding out she's a CIA puppet, which I imagine most people don't. But they know enough to take Obama seriously and once they do, they're delighted.

[jackson_dem]

27. Which has more to do with being pro-Obama than anti-Clinton outside of the netroots

It isn't just that St. Obama shows up in a state. He has $168 million and bombards each state with advertising. He outspent the second place finisher 6:1 to win Iowa, a neighboring state, by eight points. Supposedly he outspent Hillary 4:1 in Wisconsin and his ad buy in Ohio right now is reportedly double the size of Clinton's.

[dailykoff]

28. Yes he's outspending her. He can afford to.

The point is that Hilly had it locked up on name recognition, and people are SWITCHING once they get a load of what she's actually like, not just her personality, but her campaign and record.

[Metric System]

25. "Hilly the horrible" Keep it up...

[TexasObserver]

23. Quien es su Papi, Hillary?! Es Obama, no?

[thevoiceofreason]

29. I'm a Texas Obama fan

But I don't see that big of a change here. Are we making strides? Sure. But there is a lot more work to do. Expect very big turnout down in the valley, and expect that turnout yo be very strong for her.

Make phone calls, gang!