I never thought Bush would win last time; does Bush have a stronger

[IconoclastIlene]

base than we are giving him credit for? I mean, I thought Gore would win by a landslide last time around; my husband reminded me not think that no way Bush could win....yet, dammittall, I don't understand how so many folks here in the USA could be so gullible, closed minded, and ignorant.

Yet, as we all make a grave for the Republicans, why arent more of their "sins" being thrown in their face? Enron, and everything else. I hope that the Dems find the fine line between "nicities" and flinging mud that deserves to be flung.

The tv ads showing Kerry as soft on terror need addressing as they occur, not when it is too late and everyone (on the fence) gets their minds twisted by the propaganda dialogue it spews forth.

[Atman]

1. Don't be silly

Name one demographic currently polling for Bush that is not republican white men? And even the white men are starting to bail.

The Bush "power" is a media ruse. The perception of 50% polling is ESSENTIAL for the Diebold election theft to work. In reality, Bush's approval numbers are closer to the upper thirties. Unless you can find that swollen demographic hiding the millions of voters that have bailed on Bush since he lost the last election by 500,000 votes. Judging by his current troubles and constant barrage of negative press, how can any reasonable, intelligent person believe Bush really is any threat of a LEGITIMATE victory? He might take the White House again. But there is not a snowballs chance in Crawford that he'll "win."

[sadiesworld]

2. My theory on Nader is that he will try to atone for 2000 by

pulling out of the race at the last moment thereby screwing up the "close race" polling. He will urge his supporters to vote for Kerry and it will be too late for the polls to reflect anything but the truth. Well...a girl can dream, can't she?!

[IconoclastIlene]

3. I hope we don't get screwed again.

Nuts and bolts!!
Bolts and Nuts!!

WE ALL GOT SCREWED
WE ALL GOT SCREWED!!!

[Sinistrous]

4. Cannot agree.

Nadir (sic) would stumble over his bloated ego on the way to the microphone.

[sadiesworld]

5. I know, I waited for it in 2000...

but it does help me sleep.

[caledesi]

9. I am dreaming w/ ya SW. I think this is the plan, I really do. nt

[cosmicdot]

6. of course, I start with knowing that George Bush did not win in 2000

to start any analysis with that he would win is, imo, beginning with a fallacy that he did ...

one has to factor in everything Al Gore faced as our standard-bearer - despite which ... he won ... he won.

obstacles and forces were hitting him from all sides

-he had Benedict Arnolds thrust upon him via the DLC - I mean really, who in the DLC flew to FL and loudly protested the coup d'etat and stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Gore, and fought for him through the Supreme Court thing on 12/12/2000?
-the Media sent home viewers lies and distortions and fake, misleading polls so they could have a cliffhanger election night ... they're such drama queens; and, they were pro-Bush 24/7 before and after, and still are - powerful weapon against anyone - character assassination is their sport
- the MONEY - the Pioneers ... and the GOP treasury wealth this time is even more disgusting, but it's there to corrupt the debate and steal the outcome
-there should be some Floridians sitting in Tallahassee and in a House seat in DC who should be in jail
-whether we like it or not, the Clinton investigations did affect some people voting

etc. etc.

Considering that there were several 3rd Party candidates; the biased Media; the Clinton hating Media doing their best to stick it on Al ... I never thought Al could win by landslide ... not with the snakes, crooks and criminals controlling the Media and the Bush Family Evil Empire ... I didn't breathe easy until I heard Gore won Florida ... and, then, I knew he had won ... but, as we all know, the BFEE and their corporate dogs shut the election down.

Al learned as much as we did during 2000; and, I would say his posturing and behavior gives clues as to who he trusts.

[Gildor Inglorion]

7. Don't underestimate the influence of

1) Religion. * has sold himself as a devout Christian to most evangelicals. They're rabid in their support and they WILL vote for *.
2) Religion. Many hundreds of thousands of Roman Catholics and others may agree with Kerry on every subject except a woman's right to choose, but they WILL vote for * .
3) Prejudice. All across the south (and in much of the rest of the country, too), like it or not, the Democratic Party is viewed as the party of blacks and gays. The racists and homophobes WILL vote for *.
4) "The right to keep and bear arms." The NRA and its minions WILL vote for *.
5) Ignorance and greed. Enough said.

Sadly, many, if not most, of these people will vote contrary to their own best interests. No amount of appeals or education will sway them. It will take a major - almost miraculous - effort for Kerry to win.

[caledesi]

8. He didn't win - SCOTUS selected him. nt

[w4rma]

10. major/big media = (Republican Party) state media, imho. (n/t)

[OneBlueSky]

11. BushCo owns the voting machines . . .

it's not who votes that counts . . . it's who counts the votes . . .

[Festivito]

12. It's the media, stupid.

No, I'm not calling you stupid. It's a good question. My take is that the media, news media presents negative items against Republicans in a "they both do it" light.

This leaves people thinking that both sides are the same. So, they choose based on looks or whatever. Here Republicans have the advantage by having paid staff in media positions. Some give "speeches." Some have cush jobs. Some work on book deals. Some just want to keep their jobs and rise quickly to a good income. They know what they need to say, and what they cannot say.

Saying bad things about liberals is rewarded. Saying bad things about Conservatives means that other person might get the next promotion. So, the public ends up hearing both sides are the same plus liberals are bad.

Plenty of people see past this. Too many are fooled.

Add in that Conservatives own airwaves out in rural areas, the only competition from easily bought religious broadcasters. The people only hear half the message. And, when you look at the demographics of Bush's "win" you see the red states by county take up more land. That's land with fewer people and fewer media choices.

You have Internet, radio, and several TV choices. Others don't.

[Monte Carlo]

13. He has a record now.

That's his greatest asset and liability at the same time. He has his popular appeal right now, but he also has lots of explaining to the public for the awful things that he has done, and with 8 solid months of campaigning in what's sure to be a nasty media war for the history books, he's GOING to have to answer for at least some of it. There is a lot of it.

[TomSeaverr]

14. He has the South

Thats the only thing that keeps him going. And once they stop thinking so damn stupid they will wake up. They see manufacturing plants closing all around them, yet they still vote for this idiot because he talks like them

[jsw_81]

15. Bush didn't win last time

He lost the popular vote by over 500,000 and only "won" the electoral college after his father's friends on SCOTUS gave him Florida.

As far as this year goes, I think Bush's base is demoralized after the immigration fiasco, the out of control spending/deficits, and the missing WMD's. Some of them are even trying to get that crazy Alabama judge to challenge Bush from the right!

Democrats, on the other hand, are solidly united behind Kerry and eager to see a regime change in Washington D.C.

It will be close, but Kerry will prevail.