Election '04: Ohio could be key on road map to victory

[JohnLocke]

Election 2004: Ohio could be key on road map to victory
By Ronald Brownstein -- Los Angeles Times
Saturday, March 20, 2004.
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WASHINGTON — In their initial private assessments, advisers to President Bush and Sen. John Kerry see the United States divided almost exactly in half, with both sides identifying virtually the same states as likely to determine November's winner.
An enormous overlap in early spending on political ads by the two camps underscores this convergence. Bush, Kerry and two interest groups supporting the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee already have bought television advertisements in 16 states that split narrowly between Bush and Al Gore in 2000.
The campaigns also believe that both Bush and Kerry begin their battle with about 200 electoral votes leaning their way, with 270 needed for election.
And strategists for the two candidates point to Ohio as the state most likely to pick the victor if the race remains close.
A senior Republican strategist close to the Bush campaign said that if either campaign could choose one state "to know the result of on Election Day ... that state would be Ohio."
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But the increasing spotlight on Ohio — which Gore abandoned in the last weeks of the 2000 race to concentrate on Florida — shows how economic and demographic changes have subtly shifted this year's calculations.
Florida, the most closely contested major state in 2000, remains near the top of the "win" list. But Republicans are confident that a good economy has tilted the state in their direction, and some Democrats agree.
The Democrats' focus appears to have moved from Southern states that Gore fought for but lost in 2000 toward other possible pickups: Southwestern states — especially Nevada and Arizona — and states that have lost jobs under Bush, such as Ohio, West Virginia and Missouri.
Bush advisers see states with large numbers of rural and culturally conservative voters — principally Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Oregon — as their best opportunities to capture electoral votes won by Gore in 2000.
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