About Bush's campaign spending: the Kerry rope-a-dope strategy

[jeter]

The biggest problem with the Bush Administration (and there are many) is that it is based on lies. In politics, it is said, perception is reality. During the 2004 primary season, many of the perceptions about Bush, that he is a strong leader and that he is very popular, were shattered.

I remember thinking this about Bush during the 2000 campaign. It wasn't Bush's record in Texas that mattered, it was HOW HE SPUN his record.

Whether a lot of the myths and fantasies created about Bush were true or not in 2000, people believed him. No one disputed him. Most people didn't know any better.

So now here is the situation. Kerry got a big bounce out of the primaries. He led or was tied in most polls.

He has given back some. Mostly because of Nader's support, the anniversary of the Iraq invasion (if I see that commercial on the History Channel again - where a soldier says he is proud that he made millions of lives better - I will vomit) and the Bush barrage.

But even after all of that. Bush has gained slightly (if at all). Whereas Kerry maybe went down a notch or two. Accordingly, the race is about tied. Some show Kerry leading by a point or two. Others show Bush leading by a point or two.

I don't think we should let ourselves get too upset about this turn of events. For starters, because the public is turning off the election again. "The primaries are over, bother us in the fall." And if Bush wants to spend his multimillions this early on matters so trivial. My opinion is - let him.

Here is the reality:

1) Nader will probably get on a dozen (or fewer) state ballots, thereby making his candidacy inconsequential. His support is the "softest" of the bunch, according to Newsweek's latest polls. So 5% at this point, with little chance of getting on most ballots and with support so soft is hardly anything to get too excited about. In the end, I predict Nader will get 1% (if that) of the vote.

2) When matched up on the issues. Kerry destroys Bush. On the economy, which everyone says is their top priority. On all domestic issues. I think we can even make an argument concerning Bush's truthfulness and credibility. Especially now that Bush is criticizing Kerry on the same thing. We can easily turn it around and won't have to spend a penny. We just need fellow Democrats to get coordinated. (ie. have the Governors of Michigan or Pennsylvania discuss jobs or have fellow Dems on the talkshows defending Kerry's 'character' and truthfulness and attack Bush's truthfulness).

3) Bush has a lot of money. Matching him dollar for dollar is just stupid. We need to remember that Howard Dean had a lot of money too and managed to waste a lot of it. Bush has a lot of people working for him. They are all being paid. Those people alone will suck out 40 to 50 million dollars. Bush's travelling and the travelling of his aides will cost more. So if he wants to run ads this early, when no one is paying attention. Let him. That means that by summer, when we unload on him - he'll have less money at his disposal.

This last point brings me to what our strategy SHOULD be. The rope-a-dope strategy, made famous by Mohammed Ali in 1974.

March should be spent the way it is. By:

1) Coordinating Democrats.
2) Uniting the party.
3) Preparing policy proposals.
4) Raising money.

Kerry should definitely not get into a pissing contest with Bush at this point.

April. Kerry should:

1) Introduce policy proposals (domestic)
2) Campaign on THOSE proposals, ignoring Bush as much as he can.
3) Coordinate Democratic response.
4) Raise more money.

May. Kerry should:

1) Introduce more policy proposals (domestic/foreign)
2) Campaign on THOSE proposals, ignoring Bush as much as he can.
3) Coordinate Democratic response.
4) Raise more money.

Then the campaign should begin in earnest in June.

If Kerry makes it through May with a tie. I say the election is over. We have won. By then, we could have raised about $40 to $50 million. And have that at our disposal. By then, I predict Bush will have spent most of his $140 million. Then it will be a fair fight ON THE ISSUES throughout the summer.

We should spend the next two to three months trying to deflect the Bush attacks like I mentioned above.

If Bush calls Kerry a liar. We send people on TV and bring up all the lies told by the Bush Administration.

If Bush calls into question Kerry's ability to deal with the economy. We send people on TV and bring up Bush's economic record. etc.

Then in June, with our plan for the future released, the campaign can begin.

We announce who our running mate will be. And that person and Kerry travel around the country - with money in the bank, running ads in all the swing states - promoting our alternative vision for the country.

Then watch the numbers jump in our favor again.

That is the smart thing for Kerry to do. Don't let Bush define the tempo of the debate. And don't let Bush define our candidate. We don't need millions of dollars to do that. Just a little patience and some strong voices.

[AlinPA]

1. "We announce who our running mate will be. "

This will be a tick up for us. Could be a nice tick upward.

[LividLiberal]

2. On Nader, in the states he does manage to get on the ballot

some of those states are clearly blue and we will win regardless, and some are clearly red and Bush will win regardless, so it's only the swing states where Nader is even a factor, and I think voters will consider that anyway and his support will be less in those states.