Hillary up 11 in Ohio, I think Ohio is in the bag for her because of Strickland, Texas is a problem

[Herman Munster]

I think she's going to win Ohio with Strickland's machine behind her. Texas is a bigger problem for her with all the crossover republican votes that will kick her out and then vote McCain in November.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/02/25/new-ohio-numbers/


From Quinnipiac University poll:

Dems: Clinton 51, Obama 40.

[cali]

1. We'll see. Not that it matters. She's done.

She'll lose in TX. She cannot win in Vermont. She may edge him out in RI, but she'd lose WY and MS- not that she'll still be in for those contests. She simply ran out of chances in Wisconsin.

[NDambi]

2. She needs a HUGE WIN. in Ohio, a KO..I don't think she

will get it..and Tx will also be close..and she doesn't need close...she needs a blow out.

I just don't see it happening..

[SKKY]

3. She needs a 60/40 split in delegates in both TX and OH, just to break even...

...It's not happening. Barring some unforseen miracle, she's toast.

[quantass]

5. Actually she needs 60/40 not just in TX and OH but the rest of the way...

[SKKY]

18. Your correction just highlights my point. Put some butter on her...

...she's done.

[NDambi]

27. She's not gonna be able to do it! Barring a miracle..she's done.

[Obamaniac]

4. Hasn't every poll shown Hillary doing better than she actually does

on election day?

Nothing is "in the bag" for Hillary.

[Herman Munster]

7. lol sure like the NH polls

or all those polls that showed Obama winning CA by 13 or him winning or it being really close in NJ or MA.

[yellowcanine]

15. After Super Tuesday though it is pretty much true.

[Bullet1987]

23. There was only one poll that showed that and that was Zogby...

and NH was in the VERY beginning...BEFORE she went on a 11-state losing streak and race-baited. But in California, you also can't ignore that HUGE amount of Indie votes that weren't even counted.

[Obamaniac]

30. You keep holding onto New Hampshire Herman Munster...

...and Hillary's 2 percent landslide.

She's lost 25 out of 34 since then.

[BeyondGeography]

6. Quinnipiac polls routinely overstate her advantage

I wouldn't be so sure about Ohio.

[totodeinhere]

8. Haven't you learned yet not to trust the polls?

Other polls have shown it closer than that in Ohio, but you choose to quote the poll that shows Clinton in the best light.

Lets just wait for eight days until the results are in and then we can talk.

[Renew Deal]

9. That's down from 55-34

Obama is closing fast again.

[mohc]

10. "Obama Gains On Clinton In Ohio Dem Primary Quinnipiac University Likely"

Quinnipiac.com

The pollster's direct article seems to put as much emphasis on the trends favoring Obama as they do the current positions favoring Clinton. Maybe Clinton will be able to stop the trend, but as it sits right now Obama is closing the gap rapidly. Unless something dramatic happens the best the Clinton campaign can hope for in Ohio is to run out the clock and be a few points ahead. It will be interesting to see how the campaign plays things out. If Clinton appears to be trailing in Texas, and considering the caucus hybrid system and delegate allocation to targeted districts, will Clinton focus on Ohio to insure at least one win? Or will they decide they have to win both states to remain competitive, and focus on Texas where they are behind and put their narrow lead in Ohio at risk?

[workinclasszero]

11. If she loses Texas

Shes done. If she battles Obama to a 51 to 50 win in Ohio, it wont matter a bit.

Face it, Hillary is done.

[pdxmom]

12. The last Quinnipiac poll, done 2 weeks ago, had her up by 21 points, so

she's losing support and the margin is less. And in just two weeks. I think the polls, at this point, are almost a waste, because who the hell knows what's going to happen in the next 8 days.

[Renew Deal]

13. Here's the poll

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1146

  LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                              
 Wht     Wht
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk   
 Men     Wom

Clinton                 51%     48%     53%     59%     20%   
 55%     61%
Obama                   40      45      36      33      68    
 39      29
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1       -    
  1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -    
  -       -
DK/NA                    9       7      10       7      12    
  5       9

                        Age     Age     No col College
                        18-44   45+     degree degree

Clinton                 42%     55%     57%     33%
Obama                   52      35      34      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    5       9       9       8

They underestimate Obama's support among men, women, whites,
blacks, and 18-44.  I know Ohio is tough for Obama, but he has
performed better than these numbers.

[Independent-Voter]

21. So basically, HRC's support is down to just older, less educated, white women.

Telling.

[Renew Deal]

22. While simultaneously underestimating Obama's typical supporters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Maybe They Should Be Euthanized

:sarcasm:

[Sensitivity]

14. Hillary prob UNBEATABLE in Ohio. Obama should probably focus on Texas

Is is reasonable to expect the hard core traditional blue collar democratic support for Clinton to dissapear, especially when buttressed by the vast majority of the Ohio political leadership. Obama campaign should be carefull about believing in miracles. Leeave that to Mike huck.

[cali]

16. Take a look at the poll trends before advising that he should

ignore Ohio. He's closing fast. He has a week, and if he can keep it within five points and beat her in TX, it is sooo over.

[Independent-Voter]

29. Ohio's one of the few states left that still trend toward HRC. He's going to spank her in Texas by

15% and this will be over.

[yellowcanine]

17. Obama is gaining in Ohio and Texas and this past weekend will hurt Clinton.

She is starting to look desperate; her own polling data must not be good.

[WolverineDG]

19. Well, Texas is already in the "doesn't count" column

she said so to a Texas Monthly reporter when asked why she was fighting to seat the FL & MI delegations.

dg

[Bullet1987]

20. I think it'll be closer than that...

Her base isn't as strong as it once was, and Blacks dominate many of the major urban areas. But even if she does win by 11%...that's still not the 60%+ she needs to catch up. They essentially still break about even...maybe with Clinton getting 10 or 15 more delegates.

[catgirl]

25. Do you have a link to the poll?

All of the polls I've seen so far don't include Independents. Including them will change
the results.

[theHandpuppet]

26. Strickland's machine?

More like Strickland's support. He's a popular governor.

[yellowcanine]

28. Up 11 with one week to go is not "in the bag" for a primary. Particularly since that poll would

have included only 2 days after Thursday's debate and most would not have seen Hillary's rant on Saturday, not to mention the "skies are opening" screed on Sunday that many are likening to the "Dean scream" of 2004.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. Isn't this the same polling company that had her up 24ish a week and a half ago?

[NJSecularist]

32. I lost all respect for Strickland after nodding like a yes-man during Hillary's attacks