Why the PPP poll showing Obama's surge in Ohio is BAD for Hillary

[ButterflyBlood]

Let's look at the Wisconsin polls:

PPP: Obama +13
Research 2000: Obama +5
Rasmussen: Obama +4
Strategic Vision: Obama +4

PPP OWNED everyone else. Their reasoning given before the election for why their polls were so different from everyone else's was they were using a new turnout model assuming much higher turnout among blacks and youth. Turns out they actually UNDERESTIMATED it.

They did it right before, and that itself is bad for Hillary. If this continues, things keep getting worse.

[northernsoul]

1. Is there a link to this PPP Ohio poll?

I'd like to see it.

[HeraldSquare212]

2. "Hillary Clinton is in big trouble," said Dean Debnam, president of PPP,

Here's a link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Ohio_Release_022508.pdf

[Windy]

4. How do those numbers look when compared to the pre-wisconsin numbers?

any analysis?

[HeraldSquare212]

5. I don't know what you're asking.

But I think people have been saying PPP was closest in Wisconsin, giving Obama +13 or so. I don't understand enough about how they weight their samples to be able to judge the polls. I have to imagine they get rejiggered after every primary.

[northernsoul]

9. thanks n/t

n/t

[Windy]

3. the fact that 13,000 people turned out to see him in conservative Cincy is telling

I'm from Cincinnati originally (disenfranchised Michigan now) and know how conservative and frankly in some circles, how biggoted Cincinnati residents can be. This is the south in attitude, no question about it. I am very very encouraged by the turn out, for a lot of reasons!

[Cha]

7. So encouraging and just a little

bit miraculous!

[Bullet1987]

6. I think OH will be a lot closer than people think....

Blacks are strong in many of the major, heavily-populated cities.

[Greyskye]

8. Statistical Dead Heat

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Ohio_Release_022508.pdf
Clinton 50%
Obama 46%
Undecided 4%
Margin of Error 4%
Keith Number = 8%