Texas swings to Obama -- SUSA

[cali]

by kos
Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:39:49 PM PST
SurveyUSA. 2/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (2/19 results)

Obama 49 (45)
Clinton 45 (50)

That's a 9-point swing in just six days. And this doesn't even take into consideration Obama's advantages in his ground game, in the delegate allocation process, and in the caucuses that night.

<snip>

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/25/233252/948/594/464169

This is the third poll in so many days that puts Obama ahead. There is every indication that this trend will continue and that Obama will win TX. In particular, Hillary's lack of ground game and money will contribute to her losing in TX.

[earthlover]

1. Texas is becoming an unimportant state?

[cali]

2. It could well turn out to be very unimportant indeed

Barring a political miracle for Clinton, this is where her campaign dies.

[WolverineDG]

6. It already is!

She told a Texas Monthly reporter she can't carry it in the general, so she's back to fighting to seat the FL & MI delegations because at least MI is in the Democratic "win" column.

dg

[workinclasszero]

7. Thats right very unimportant and worst of all

Texas is hopeful for the future!:applause:

Remember the official Hillary Clinton campaign slogan:

[TexasObserver]

3. Texss is the knockout punch.

[janetblond]

4. Now, Ohio needs to come around ...

I don't think many of the blue collar workers in Ohio realize they got screwed by NAFTA.
They just don't "get it" .... yet.

[cali]

5. Ohio is tightening up rapidly

Obama is anywhere from 4 to 11 points back. He's cut his lead in half or more in less than 2 weeks. I think we can expect the trend to continue and that he can win OH. If he loses it will be a narrow loss.

[NoBorders]

25. I agree, but Clinton has not dropped much in OH

Her numbers (around 50%) have held steady. Of course, there are something like 12% undecided according to a poll I saw on CNN this morning, so there's certainly the possibility Obama could win.

But I'm not counting on a win in OH. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he wins there.

[JeanGrey]

35. Even if she wins Ohio she is still finished.............it won't be

nearly enough.

[Muzza]

8. Nice selective use of polling data....

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

Feb 25, 2008

Clinton: 46
Obama: 45
Undecided: 9

[Mass]

10. Considering that Obama was 20 points behind a few weeks ago in TX, Rassmussen data are good news too

In addition, SUSA has been one of the best poller this primary season.

[Kittycat]

14. SUSA is commonly accepted here as the leading poll of reference.

They've been the most accurate this season. Maybe if you'd been here a while, you would know that.

[underpants]

18. CNN has it too O 50 Hillary 46

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/25/texas.poll/

[Inuca]

17. Absolutely

This looks very encouraging for CLinton who needs to win by ~15%.

[Occam Bandage]

23. I agree. Posting the only poll in the last week that does not show Obama leading

is indeed selective use of polling data. Also, not showing the fact that Ras showed Obama down 20 points the day after WI is selective use of polling data as well.

[tekisui]

26. I saw a Clinton supporter say, "I'll believe TX gap has closed when I see

SUSA" Here it is. Aside, 46-45 is not statistically a lead for Clinton.

[cali]

32. get real. I posted the newest SUSA. I'm in no way obligated

to post other polls. And SUSA, in case you've not been following, has been far more accurate than rasmussen. In addition, the new CNN poll yesterday, reflected the same thing as SUSA. And EVERY poll over the last week, makes the trend clear: Obama is gaining and she is losing.

[Jacobin]

9. Hillary

[TexasObserver]

13. Nice!

[babylonsister]

20. Ha! I love visuals. nt

[psychopomp]

22. Hold that thought

I can't tell you how many times we counted Dumbya and Dick Cheney out using the same catch-phrases. Fitzmas never came!

[thevoiceofreason]

31. Pictures speak louder than words

[dempartisan23]

11. great news!!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

12. OPEN Primary 1 time Republican votes for Obama in TX.ask Dick Morris &Dennis Miller they gave orders

[K Gardner]

16. You're embarassing yourself. So is Hillary. Enough is enough.

[loveangelc]

21. If anything Republicans are voting for Hillary to have a weaker candidate and keep this going.

[Voice for Peace]

30. wrong. Republicans I know personally (and respect) are voting for Obama because

they like him, despite his being so liberal, and they dislike McCain intensely,
despite his being Republican.

[Occam Bandage]

24. Woohoo! We've done it! Texas no longer counts!

[NoBorders]

27. (All Three)

[theboss]

28. I hope Republicans are dumb enough to vote for Obama

Give us the better candidate in the general.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

29. The general election is open, too.

[cali]

33. He'll win the majority of dems too

and it looks like he'll win in OH if the trend continues. He's now only 5 pts back in the latest Rasmussen, 6 pts back in the latest SUSA and 4 pts back in the latest PPP poll. The fat lady is in the house. Give it up for the fat lady.

[Alter Ego]

15. *w00tles*

How much longer until we hear that Texas doesn't matter?

[Kittycat]

34. She's already written them off.

She's moved on to bigger and better states, like Rhode Island.

[Scurrilous]

19. Good news!

K & R :thumbsup: