Details of the Texas coup de grace and Clinton political malpractice

grantcart

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Feb-26-08 05:08 PM
Original message

Details of the Texas coup de grace and Clinton political malpractice

coup de grâce

/kudə ˈgrɑs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun, plural coups de grâce /kudə ˈgrɑs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation. French. 1. a death blow, esp. one delivered mercifully to end suffering.
2. any finishing or decisive stroke.

mal•prac•tice

/mælˈpræktɪs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. Law. failure of a professional person, as a physician or lawyer, to render proper services through reprehensible ignorance or negligence or through criminal intent, esp. when injury or loss follows.
2. any improper, negligent practice; misconduct or misuse.

HRC campaign for President has simply failed to develop a compelling
message on why she should be President. If you did not immediately buy into the inevitability argument there was never a compelling hook for anybody to join that was not already a fan. Her experience arguement was destroyed by her inability to make a clear statement about the IWR vote, admitting the mistake and moving on.

If she repeat she had not been so interested in packaging a product for consumption but rather fired her pollsters and consultants and just put herself out there she would have been the candidate. It happened for a moment in NH and the people responded. The great irony of this campaign season is, that Sen. McCain's prescription of just leaving all of the packagers behind and doing town meetings would have made her a rock star. Can you imagine the media she would have generated by travelling by herself and just talking to people. She continues to see Super Delegates move from her (4 more in the last 24 hours
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4776192&mesg_id=4782201

Below is detailed step by step why HRC will not gain any delegate advantage in Texas

Because Texas accounts for almost half of the delegates in March, she has no chance of significantly improving her delegate count this month.

Sen. Clinton, President Clinton and all of the other paid consultants know all of this and are guilty of campaign malpractice

Rather than settling out of court we have to wait for another jury. Just like any other civil action don't be surprised if the jury on Mar 4th brings in damages that will have a devestating effect on the Clintons. They could have settled some time ago for pennies.

After Wisconsin this stopped being about Obama winning. it is now simply about packing up the circus with as little damage as possible. The ball is in Clinton's court and how much damage they are willing to inflict on his legacy, her future and our party.

1) The Texas Reality

By the time the ballots were being counted in the Potomac primaries, Clinton had landed in El Paso, Texas, where she declared, "We're going to sweep across Texas in the next three weeks." http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1713270,00.html?xid=feed-yahoo-full-nation-related

But the reality is that after Wisconsin there never was any hope of reversing delegate slippage in Texas. As the demographics below show the field was always demographically tilted for Obama. It was Wisconsin where Hillary stood a reasonable chance, based on demographics, of stopping Obama's sweeping 'run the table' end game of primary wins.

That would have been enough but "Now, having blown through more than $120 million, Clinton's campaign is struggling to build a campaign from scratch in Ohio and Texas, with political observers in near agreement that a failure to win both could be fatal.(ibid)
Rather than confront the Texas reality the Clinton campaign is sticking to some illusion that "Harold Ickes, who gave a presentation about Hillary Rodham Clinton's prospects that severed all ties with reality. "We're on the way to locking this nomination down," he said of a candidate who appears, if anything, headed in the other direction.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/25/AR2008022502501_pf.html

2) Detailing Texas’ Unique Delegate Conundrum
Total Delegates 228 (roughly half of all of the delegates to be selected in March 502)

Selected by Primary 126
Caucus 67
Super Delegate 35
(As of 2/26 Clinton has 13 and Obama has 6)

First the process as explained in Wikipedia
Texas has a unique two-step process of an open primary and caucus, which the Delegate Selection Plan refers to as precinct conventions.

Participants may affiliate with the Democratic Party simply by voting in the primary or signing an affidavit of affiliation.<6>

The presidential primary is binding and has a minimum 15% threshold to receive delegates. The 126 state senate district delegates are selected through the primary based on results in each of the 31 state senate districts.

They are apportioned based on the weight of the vote cast for the Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas, Chris Bell, in the 2006 general election, and for John F. Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election.

This has the result of increasing delegates in African-American senatorial districts disproportionate to their population<7>, and depressing delegates from Hispanic districts.<8><9>

At 7:15 p.m., precinct conventions will be held at most polling places, which are open to those who voted in the Democratic primary. At this point, participants sign in and declare their presidential preference, or that they are uncommitted, which is an option not available on the primary ballot.

<10> Each precinct is allocated one delegate for each 15 votes cast for the Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas, Chris Bell, in the 2006 general election. Unlike most Democratic caucuses, there is no 15% threshold, as long as there are enough whole persons to select a delegate.<11>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Democratic_primary%2C_2008
Second the Distribution of Delegates

Here is a map of CD in Texas

Here is a map showing how delegates are distributed by region
With a breakdown of ethnic groups

The delegates are concnetrated in the districts where Obama has the best demographics

Here is a computerized model using best available data from one week ago
(polls since then have gone Obama’s way

Detailed explanation on each Congressional District can be found here;

http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=891

If you want to see updates from 7 local newspapers showing local reaction to more recentObama surges go here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4776192&mesg_id=4778410

Summary
1) Multiple Polls show Clinton losing ground Obama winning Texas
2) Michelle Stumps in Galveston
3) African-American Districts have extra delegate power
4) Heavy Turnout Helping Obama- Corpus Christi
5) Heavy Turnout From Obama supporters Dallas
6 )Heavy Democratic Voting in El Paso
7) Delegate Distribution Heavily Favors Obama: Caucuses could be Chaotic