Futures markets say Hillary to quit THIS friday?

[kpete]

Futures markets say Hillary to quit THIS friday?
by mcdave
Wed Feb 27, 2008

A rumor is spreading that Hillary Clinton will avoid humiliation and drop out this Friday, FEBRUARY 29th.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/27/153044/184/615/465173

Lending creedence to this rumor is that fact that shares of "Dropout.Feb08.Clinton" have surged almost 1800% from $2.00 to $35.00. That means there is a 35% chance that Hillary Clinton will drop out on or before Friday.

Is that a result of the rumors or is someone in the know putting their money where their mouth is?

more at:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/27/18855/4545/538/465258

[Maddy McCall]

1. Well, if kos says it, it must be true.

:eyes:

[Yael]

9. Kos didn't say it, someone else did

But don't let facts get in the way of a total dismissal of the story.

[JVS]

2. 2/29! Nooooooo! Now we won't be able to celebrate the anniversary of her dropping out each year.

;-)

[HeraldSquare212]

7. LOL! Maybe that's why she'll pick that day!

[BringBigDogBack]

21. hah!

[CreekDog]

26. yeah, only in presidential years

:yoiks:

[Recursion]

32. But not in 2100

:(

[Alexander]

36. 2100 will be a leap year.

[Recursion]

38. Not unless we change calendars

Century years are only leap years if the century is divisible by 4.

Per the Unix cal program:

$ cal 2 2100
February 2100
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28

$ cal 2 2400
February 2400
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29

[CreekDog]

41. we will be part of the borg by then

:hi:

[tandem5]

3. wow this friday?? how terribly random of her! nt

[anigbrowl]

23. Last day of the month = no payroll bill for March.

If she is dropping out because she has concluded that she cannot win (no comment either way), the end of the month is the logical time to do so.

[Pirate Smile]

4. I hope it is true but I really doubt it. Rumors and markets aren't exactly reliable.

The market is just reacting to the rumor.

[ingac70]

5. No way...

I doubt she drops out when she gets her ass stomped next Tuesday.

[rodeodance]

6. keep spreading the rumor/---Will you make some $$ just asking

[Renew Deal]

8. It's highly unlikely

But not impossible. I wouldn't count on it. There's been speculation about her quiting before March 4 if things got bad. Jonathan Alter was pushing this amongst others. Like I said, I wouldn't count on it.

[yourguide]

10. She's not dropping until the 5th

no way.

[Cha]

24. The fifth of

what?

[yourguide]

28. March - it's done on March 5th

[Cha]

29. Sorry, my attempt at humor

was too dry. :)

[yourguide]

30. No worries... :-)

[Occam Bandage]

11. Yeh, I don't really buy that. Those are a lot of wasted $35-dollar bets, IMO.

[mtnsnake]

12. I think Obama should drop out so we could have a chance to beat McCain

Maybe it's him who's going to quit this Friday.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I'd give credence to this if Obama didn't do far better than Clinton against McCain in every poll.

[GarbagemanLB]

The polls don't count, obviously.

[mtnsnake]

25. Once Hillary is out of the picture, if she is, then watch what the polls say

Obama's electability rating will plummet like a rock when he's left all on his own without Hillary to take the brunt of the rightwing attacks.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. haha, ok, yeah, we'll wait for that.

If anything, they'll go up, since he'll have time to focus his attacks on McCain and he'll shore up his support throughout the Democratic base.

[COFoothills]

13. Possible...not likely...

The only way she drops before Tuesday would be if their internals showed them beyond shadow of doubt that things on Tuesday were going to be ugly for her. Then she might cut her losses ahead of time to avoid the embarrassment.

But by everything I see TX is still close and she still has a small (though diminishing) lead in OH.

But it sounds like her ground game in TX is falling apart so things could get bad for her down there with no GOTV boots on the ground and the mixed format. But I still think that Ohio is close either way....but that's probably not going to be good enough for her.

[babylonsister]

15. FWIW, Limbaugh said the same thing today. Maybe he got it from kos?

Or vice versa?

[indimuse]

16. more rw..

"if you say it enough..."

[Barack_America]

17. I still say March 6th...

To coincide historically with the end of the Alamo.

She ain't going down without a fight. She'll let her campaign be slaughtered...NO SURRENDER!

[mudesi]

18. The futures contract is MARCH 8th

http://www.intrade.com

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

22. LOL. I love succinct thread killers!

[anigbrowl]

27. No it isn't.

"Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008"

I don't know where you're getting March 8th. It expires at midnight on Friday. Are you sure you're not think of March 08 as in March 2008, since midnight on February 29 is technically the 1st of March?

[Major Hogwash]

19. End of the month fire sale at Hillary dot com!

Get your "We love Hillary" political buttons while they last!

Never to be reissued!
Collector's items!
Monetary value guaranteed to go up in price.
Collect the whole set!

LoL

[greguganus]

33. No Way!!! I'm still trying to get rid of all my Dukakis junk!! n/t

[Yael]

20. I think they misunderstood. What she said was that Feb 29th doesn't count, not

"I'm getting out".

[ORDem]

34. This is totally bogus. Go look at InTrade, there's just no liquidity

in that particular "stock". It was driven up by one buyer it looks like. The bid/ask is in low single digits.

[Tom Joad]

35. don't expect her to take the leap that day. she'll wait until next Wednesday or Thursday.

the futures market is just many people guessing. even presuming they are all smart people guessing, they can't know for sure.

[no name no slogan]

37. A 35% chance of rain doesn't mean it will rain

There's also a very small percentage I could get hit by a meteor on my way to work tomorrow, too.

Predicting her drop-out date is like predicting the weather, and it's about as accurate.

It wouldn't make any sense for her to drop out before next Tuesday.

[loveangelc]

39. I was listening to Rush Limbaugh (for some reason) and he mentioned 2 sources tellng him this rumor.

I doubt it though. What would be the point?

[OhioChick]

40. I Read That, as Well.

From: Times of India

Traders bet Hillary will win Ohio, lose nomination

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Traders_bet_Hillary_will_win_Ohio_lose_Democratic_nomination/articleshow/2818013.cms

From LBN: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=3199591

[eridani]

42. If she does, it will surely be after March 4th

Why would anybody believe futures markets?