Clinton trails in Texas, deadlocked in Ohio

[ariesgem]

Sun Mar 2, 2008 1:16am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Hillary Clinton narrowly trails rival Barack Obama in Texas and the two are virtually tied in Ohio ahead of critical contests that could decide the fate of her presidential bid, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll released on Sunday.

Clinton faces heavy pressure to win in both big states on Tuesday and halt the Illinois senator's momentum after his 11 consecutive victories in their battle to become the Democratic nominee in November's presidential election.

Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, has seen big poll leads disappear in both states over the last two weeks as Obama seized control of the Democratic race with his winning streak.

She now trails Obama in Texas by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent, up from a 2-point edge for Obama on Saturday. Obama's strength in the state's big cities and among men, young voters and blacks has offset her advantage with the state's sizable bloc of Hispanics and older voters.

Clinton still holds leads in heavily Hispanic south Texas and conservative west Texas, but Obama has pulled virtually even among women voters, usually one of her strongest constituencies.

In Ohio, Clinton has a statistically insignificant 1-point edge on Obama, 47 percent to 46 percent, after the two were dead even on Saturday. That is well within the margin of error of 3.7 percentage points in the poll conducted by Zogby International.

"It's way too close in both states to say either one has a significant advantage," pollster John Zogby said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN2964115720080302

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. as long as Obama can prevent a blowout in either of these....

I say her proverbial goose is cooked. But, of course, she keeps moving the goalposts. I don't expect her to concede, her ego's just too big for that.

[johnnydrama]

2. the over/under

I'd say the over/under for delegates won on Tuesday is 0. I think it'll be very close to a 0 difference in total delegates won on Tuesday.

[tekisui]

9. I predict Obama gains 20-25 Tues.

[MindMatter]

18. I think that is conservative

I think +30 is very plausible for Texas, and it could be +50 there. See my post later in the thread for the argument that leads to those numbers

Vermont and Rhode Island should mostly cancel one another. Together those two states could give Clinton a +5 bast case.

Ohio is a question mark. It seems to be her best opportunity, yet the latest polls call it a draw with Obama on the rise. It is hard to see how she comes out of Ohio with a +10.

If I were betting, I'd say those 4 states will be a +40 for Obama.

[quantass]

3. No delegate gain then -- which means Hilary will be the big loser (win or lose)...ouch!

[workinclasszero]

4. Hillary is done

Unless she wins Ohio and Texas in a blowout. Heh, like there is any chance of that happening.

Although I fully expect Hillary to scream after the 4th, "Meet me in Pennsylvania, Barack Obama!". Those goalposts are very mobile in the Clinton campaign.

When will this charade end? Hopefully most of the remaining super delegates will come over to Obama after the 4th and that will end the worst run campaign in history.

Then we can get back to the real task at hand, taking back American from the rethug party!

[BigAnth]

5. Didn't You Get The Memo??????

Texas and Ohio don't count any more (and Vermont never did count). It's now all down to Rhode Island. If Clinton can eke out a win in Rhode Island, she's got the momentum on her side. Then all the Super Delegates will flock to her and she'll have the nomination in the bag. Yes, it will all be over as soon as the momentum of a Rhode Island victory propels Hillary back to front-runner status.

[workinclasszero]

6. I LOLed!

Thanks.:hi:

[Zachstar]

11. Clinton is done.

Clinton lost HUGE LEADS and went on the attack/desperation mode. Texans see that and the people of Ohio and the other remaining states see that. The Obama camp has been extremely energized by it's base and are working hard for a good win! And the responses and the actions towards the Clinton fear politics shows that of a leader who can face the BS and not act stupid over it.

We have our Leader!
We have our HOPES!!
We have our DREAMS!!

WE HAVE OBAMA!!!

GOBAMA!!!

[Arkana]

7. If Obama can stay within 3-4% of her in both states

then he's the winner, even if he should lose both.

That's what's great about being the front runner--the status quo is your friend.

[MindMatter]

10. No. He needs to win.

Because he needs to tip the stack of undecided superdelegates. If Clinton won both Ohio and TX, they will remain uncommitted.

It is a moot point, I think. Clinton might scratch out a very narrow win in Ohio. I think that is very much in doubt:
a) because Obama clearly has fast-moving momentum and the polls lag by several days; and
b) it seems his supporters are more enthusiastic then hers, which probably leads to a stronger turnout on the Obama side.

Be that as it may, it seems that Hillary is toast in Texas. Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of these polls take into account the Texas proportioning rules, and that is a huge factor. Assuming the Hispanic areas come out in force to vote, they will get a smaller share of delegates than the popular vote would suggest because they did not participate heavily in the LAST election cycle. I would be really, really surprised if any of the Texas polls account for this. So a 4% advantage for Obama is probably more like a 10% delegate advantage for the election part of the game. And given the stories we've heard about the Clinton organization on the ground, I seriously doubt she can come out ahead in the caucus portion of the game. I don't see any way she can leave Texas with more pledged delegates. This looks like a 30 delegate landslide for Obama even if popular vote is only separated by that 4% margin.

[totodeinhere]

13. I'm afraid that the Clinton camp will try to find some way to spin...

the outcome of this Tuesday's elections no matter how they turn out. Then they will use that spin as an excuse to stay in the race.

[MindMatter]

15. Her spin has not been working

The only way she can arrive at the convention with more pledged delegates is with HUGE wins in TX, OH, and PA. TX is definitely not happening. OH could be a narrow victory, but that would only tip pledged delegates by 5-10 at most. Similar story in PA. That's not enough. The only way to sin is with the superdelegates.

The spin is for the superdelegates. That has not been working. The past two weeks, all the movement has been towards Obama. While she has been completely unsuccessful at winning new superdelegate commitments, she has been successful in convincing most of the uncommiteds to remain uncommitted through this week.

I don't believe her spinning will work if she suffers a big loss in Texas unless she has a surprisingly strong win in OH. A big delegate count win for Obama in TX coupled with a slight delegate count gain for Clinton in the other 3 states would convince another 50 superdelegates to go with Obama. If that happens, Clinton spin becomes irrelevant. She and Bill will be the only two people on this planet who thinks she can and should be the nominee. If she stays in under those circumstances, she becomes a Huckabee tilting at windmills.

At least Huckabee has a good excuse. God told him to do it.

[Zachstar]

14. 30 may be a bit too much to expect for.

And I agree that this year the polls suck! I think it is a bad idea to rely on anything other than reports from the ground there.

[MindMatter]

16. Maybe. Here's my rationale

153 delegates are assigned based on the primary voting. Let's assume Obama wins the popular vote by 4% (52-48), which is a number coming up frequently in the polling. If the delegates were assigned uniformly based on popular vote percent, then Obama would get 80 delegates and Clinton would get 73. That's +7 for Obama.

But the delegate assignment is not uniform. Every analysis I've seen says that the districts that get "more than their share" of delegates, so to speak, are all districts where Obama is strong. So a 4% popular vote advantage will probably be a 15 delegate spread.

That leaves 75 delegates to be decided by caucus. Obama has done extremely well in caucuses, and all indications are that his organization is very energized in TX. So that looks like it could easily be a +15 in the caucuses.

A +30 seems very plausible to me. It could even be a +50 if the early voting is an indication of what will happen on Tuesday.

And I still don't understand why Hispanics would automatically support Clinton, other than racism against Obama.

[Thrill]

8. Anything less than a 10 point win in both states for Hillary

is a failure

[dailykoff]

12. They don't like her, they really don't like her.

I wonder when she'll get the message?

[billyoc]

17. Everyone knows that Rhode Island is the only state that matters.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: