If the Democratic primaries had been held in a different sequence, would things be different?

[tgnyc]

Let's say Texas went third instead of Nevada. Wouldn't Hillary have scored a large victory in that large state back in January, before the Obama phenomenon went national?

If South Carolina went first, wouldn't many more blacks -- who had been waiting to see if whites would go for Obama -- have stayed with Hillary? Wouldn't that, in turn, have changed the dynamic among black voters around the country?

Of course, this thought exercise could be played out a large number of ways, with the end results favoring either candidate.

Which leads me to my larger point:

Since the standing of the candidates at any point in time is affected by the sequence of states which preceded that point, isn't it inappropriate to a)ask a candidate who has not been mathematically or financially eliminated to drop out before all the voters have had their say, and b) order the primaries in anything other than a random sequence? Or have anything other than a single national primary? Do we really get the best nominee if s/he has been chosen by vote of only 2/3 of the country?

[AX10]

1. kick

[dkf]

2. I'm sure Obama didn't think that Iowa would have been his best 1st bet.

But he played em as they came and he played them well.

[tgnyc]

4. whether he thought it or not, Iowa was well suited for him:

small state, allowing him to charm a large percentage of the poplulation in-person, and neutralizing whatever fundraising advantage his opponent may have had at that point. Also, next door to his home state. I don't dispute that he'd played his hand well, but my question is could playing his hand as well have left him with a delegate lead at this point if the hand had come up South Carolina, then New Jersey, then Texas, then Florida, then Ohio?

[sandnsea]

3. Hillary tried to bounce FL & MI forward

because she thought they would be more favorable to her than Iowa. She sure as hell wouldn't have chosen Texas or Nevada to go first when she thought John Edwards was her biggest competition. If Ohio had gone first, do you think Kucinich would be our candidate? There's room to change the way we elect candidates, but there are also reasons that IA & NH have remained first. They seem to be a good test for the majority of Americans, who are, in fact, white.