malik flavors
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:12 AM
Original message |
Suffolk University Poll (3/1-3/2): Clinton (52) Obama (40) |
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Couldn't tell you much about this poll. Seems to be a pretty big difference in comparison to most other polls, but here it is, for what it's worth. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/FinalOHIOMarginalsMarch22008.html
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quantass
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:14 AM
Response to Original message |
1. Check out Suffolk's Poll record -- Most results were completely wrong. |
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Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 12:17 AM by quantass
This is why you need to use multiple results from other sources and look for a pattern...this University's record has been weak over this election...google them up
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sandnsea
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message |
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That pretty much sums up that poll.
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NJSecularist
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
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It was 44% below 45 in New Hampshire. 40% in South Carolina. 40% in California. You get my point.
Also, they only sampled 8% African Americans, when turnout is expected to be doubled that.
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NJSecularist
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
15. Hell, even Michigan, an uncontested primary, got 43% |
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I think Michigan is the best comparison for what will happen in Ohio, although those in Ohio will surely object to that. :)
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Johnny__Motown
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Mon Mar-03-08 01:11 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
21. Maybe northern Ohio, southern Ohio is almost a southern state.The state is nothing if not diverse |
ORDem
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Mon Mar-03-08 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
17. Polls are weighted by categories, so this is not a valid argument |
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against their methodology. You can't get a perfect sampling of all age groups, so you weight the results accordingly. Anyway, it does look like an outlier in any case. There's no dynamic in the last couple of days that would account for such a large swing.
:dem:
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Alhena
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message |
3. 38% of those polled were over 65 - did they call a retirement home? |
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Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 12:19 AM by Alhena
an additional 25% were 56-65. So 63% of their poll was over age 56- great poll, guys.
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adoraz
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:22 AM
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DUyellow
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:19 AM
Response to Original message |
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Q11. Of the following categories, which comes closest to your age? N= 400 100% 18-25 .......................................... 1 ( 1/305) 6 2% 26-35 .......................................... 2 16 4% 36-45 .......................................... 3 40 10% 46-55 .......................................... 4 86 22% 56-65 .......................................... 5 98 25% Over 65 ........................................ 6 152 38% Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 7 2 1%
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MadBadger
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
6. 18-45 is 16%? Bull fuckin shit |
skipos
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #4 |
7. And what would be a realistic estimate of the breakdown of the ages that will turn out to vote? |
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I have never really looked at the numbers.
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skipos
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
12. I'll answer my own question. In Wisconsin it was |
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18-34 = 16% 34-44 = 22% 45-59 = 34% 60+ = 29%
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Drunken Irishman
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
14. Well going by the 2004 primary, those numbers are way off. |
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Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 12:31 AM by Drunken Irishman
18-29 (9%) 30-44 (23%) 45-64 (46%) 65 and Older (22%)
18-64 (78%) 65 and Older (22%)
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thewiseguy
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:24 AM
Response to Original message |
8. wow what a shitty poll |
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Why would they even publish this poll on RCP?
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Renew Deal
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:25 AM
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9. They have severely undersampled Independents |
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Indies were 24% in 2004. This poll says 9%. That's wrong.
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Renew Deal
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
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14% in 2004, 8% in this poll.
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MadBadger
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:27 AM
Response to Original message |
11. They severely underpolled 18-45, which in every other state is from 30-45 percent of the vote |
NJSecularist
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Mon Mar-03-08 12:35 AM
Response to Original message |
16. All you need to know about Suffolk is this poll from Massachusetts |
shiestyelbow
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Mon Mar-03-08 01:05 AM
Response to Original message |
18. I'm beginning to worry about Ohio |
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Hopefully he comes through in Texas.
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MadBadger
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Mon Mar-03-08 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
19. Dont worry about Ohio. He may lose, but this poll is worthless |
adoraz
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Mon Mar-03-08 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
20. this poll really means nothing |
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simply put, they way over sampled the group heavily favoring Clinton and way under sampled the group heavily supporting Obama. This would basically be like way over sampling whites and way under sampling blacks in a deep south state.
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milkyway
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Mon Mar-03-08 01:17 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
22. Don't. Obama will net a lot more delegates in Vermont than Hillary will in Ohio. Even if Hillary |
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wins a close popular vote in Ohio, she might win fewer delegates than Barack. Even a win of 8% will not net here more than about 5 delegates.
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DU
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Thu May 02nd 2024, 04:21 PM
Response to Original message |