Word of caution on Texas polls

[thewiseguy]

Two polls did come out today that suggested a sizable lead for Hillary in Texas. (PPD, and Insider Advantage)

Both of these polls either had Hillary up or tied with Obama when all other polls were suggesting that Obama was gaining in Texas. I think it would be a mistake to give too much weight to these polls.

Also 60% percent of the democratic primary vote have already been casted in Texas and polls are all over the place on who actually leads amongst early voters. Yet most of them do show that the race is close. Now if lets say neither of the polls were right and the two candidates were splitting the early votes then Obama would have the lead, just as SUSA suggested.

Barring any monkey business I believe Obama will take Texas tomorrow. The only thing that would worry me is the Republican crossover, but then again how much influence does Rush have? And how many Republicans would actually go wait in long lines and vote for Hillary?

[panader0]

1. First sentence-"sizable lead" Second sentence "up or tied"

How is tied a sizable lead?

[thewiseguy]

4. What I meant...

was that these two polls that were released today give Hillary between 5-6 point advantage.

These two posts were the only polls to also show Hillary with a good lead or a tie when other polls were indicating that Obama was up 4-5 points. (This was last week)

So I am not so sure on the word momentum that is being tossed around. None of the polls have really changed within the margin of error in the past week.

[BeatleBoot]

2. The 60% cast votes include Republican Crossovers for Obama

Republicans got a Very Early start on that one...


http://republicansforobama.org/?q=node/359


E-mail to send to Texas Republicans


Attention All Texas Republicans and Independents!!

On March 4th, Texas Republicans and Independents will have an opportunity to end Hillary Clinton's (and Bill's) presidential ambitions once and for all!

Since Texas has on open primary, Republicans and Independents should sign in at their polling place and request a Democratic ballot. They should then vote for Barack Obama. Even James Carville admits that if Hillary loses Texas, "she's done!" Republicans can help make this a reality!!! Just think, no more Clintons in the White House!

Voting Democratic this one time will have NO effect on your ability to vote in the next Republican primary or obviously on your vote in November. Since John McCain has the Republican nomination locked up, voting for McCain or Huckabee at this point will have no effect on the outcome on the Republican side.

After you vote during early voting or on March 4th, you ARE NOT done! Report back to your regular polling place at 7PM on March 4th to sign the Barack Obama list for caucus delegates. In a little known Texas voting quirk, 67 delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated because of these caucuses. This is a full one-third of the total number of Texas delegates. For Hillary to lose, she has to lose the primary votes AND the caucus votes.

I urge you to vote against Hillary Clinton by voting for Barack Obama. Please forward this e-mail to all your Texas Republican and Independent friends so that we can help ensure the Clinton's defeat on March 4th!!!

[moobu2]

3. Oh it’s OK if repugs cross and vote for BO

[BeatleBoot]

6. No I don't think it is OK. I prefer a closed Primary.

Because if only Democrats voted, then Hillary would already have won the nomination.

[truedelphi]

7. But that could prove to be very bad for the country in the long term

The American voter currently is divided among the parties thusly:

Repugs: 28%
Dems 33%
and a whooping 39% of all American voters are independents.

So it is very important that whoever ends up with the Democratic candidate nomination can appeal to others than just the mid range Democrats.

And of course, you would never know this if you watch the M$M outlets on TV.

[southern_dem]

8. To be fair

Rush Limbaugh was on his show urging Repubs to vote for Clinton so it goes both ways.

[QuicklyLoving]

5. As long as polls show a tight race, Obama has the edge

In my view, Obama does not necessarily need to win Texas or Ohio, but rather keep Hillary from opening up a sizable lead. And by sizable I estimate a 13-15% lead by Hillary. That is, IMO, what she would need to get a significant number of delegates.
I honestly do not see Hillary winning Texas, or winning Ohio by a margin larger than modest.