Hatred Of Hillary Vs Fear Of Obama: Which hurts us more?

[phrenzy]

As of now, it seems that the HC hatred among repugs is so fervent that they will specifically come out, note to vote FOR McCain, but to vote AGAINST Hillary.

With Obama, I think it's still an unknown. While I can see people not being comfortable voting FOR him, I also can't see people coming out in droves to vote AGAINST him.

Obama's shine may fade, but I really don't see the entrenched Hillary haters ever relaxing enough to give us the election in '08.

[anonymous171]

1. Don't forget about congress and various other local elections

Even in HRC manages to get the presidency, congress and the rest will go the repugs for sure.

[LulaMay]

2. Are you using a Zogby method for that prediction?

[anonymous171]

5. Repugs turn out in droves to defeat Clinton.

While in the voting both, they also happen to vote for every person with an (R) by their name.

[BzaDem]

4. Of course, that is assuming that there are tons of people who hate HRC but don't normally vote.

The people who hate HRC probably already vote for republicans anyway.

[jsmirman]

12. I think you are GREATLY underestimating

the level of hatred for her that is out there. It is, at least in my experience, not at all restricted to those who would vote republican anyway.

It is hugely powerful, visceral, and very, very widespread. Take this from someone who gets to see a pretty broad crosssection of people with all sorts of education levels, geographies, and party or no party affiliations as a result of all the sports forums I participate in. Believe it or not, if you love sports and talk about them online, you tend to hear from people you might not otherwise speak to in your daily life.

[Control-Z]

14. Men or women's

sports?

[jsmirman]

16. All men's sports

I'm not sure how active a discussion of women's sports- at least when you are talking the enormous numbers needed to have a cross section- there is online.

Believe it not, though, there are a number of women who participate in the discussion of men's sports.

[BzaDem]

3. You will see tons of people coming to vote against him once the swiftboating starts.

The whole problem is that he is unknown. We know him (as the small portion of the public that votes in primaries). But the general electorate doesn't. Republicans will paint a very nasty picture of him. Not only will they swiftboat him, but there is sooo much stuff to swiftboat him with. Much more than Kerry. Rezko, his minister, his position at one point that handguns should be banned, his desire to give drivers' licenses to illegals, his extremely liberal voting record in the IL senate.

Clinton, on the other hand, is known. Many republicans do hate her, but the ones that do are the ones that vote for republicans anyway. Luckily, in our system, you don't get extra votes for extra hatred. She is so well known that she will be almost impossible to swiftboat. And she is such an effective debater, much more so than Obama. She will be able to school McCain on the economy and make him look like a fool. I think that Clinton is a lot more electable than Obama.

[anonymous171]

7. God forbid we nominate a liberal.

Anyway, clinton is already defined, which is a BAD thing.

[Syrinx]

9. I think Obama has improved a lot in the most recent debates

Early on, Clinton was much more impressive in the debates. I think it was mainly due to the fact that Obama didn't want to attack fellow Democrats. In the most recent debates, Obama has found his zone. He's topped almost every one of Hillary's "zingers," without getting personal or nasty, and you could see the frustration in Hillary's eyes.

I will support Clinton if she is the nominee, but I think Obama is by far the most attractive candidate.

[Syrinx]

6. I remember seeing a poll awhile back...

In which 49% of American voters said that they would not vote for Hillary Clinton "under any circumstances."

That means that Hillary would need to get virtually 100% of the vote from those that could imagine themselves ever conceivably voting for her.

I don't like those odds.

I will vote for and support Clinton if she gets the nomination, but if she does, we're staring a McPain administration in the face.

[Justitia]

8. She is extremely polarizing and it will simply kill the down ballot races.

Here in TX, nothing motivates the repubs like beating up on the Clintons.

Unfortunately, our down ballot, great Democratic candidates will pay the price for the Clinton hatred.

[phrenzy]

10. The Problem...

I agree, I am somewhat scared by Obama's "untestedness" in terms of fending off mud. If a few bad things come out about him, they could whip up a scare campaign that could theoretically motivate enough Republicans to come out with the ferocity they would if Clinton were the nominee.

Also, don't forget, the hardcore Republicans (who hate Hillary the most) are also the most ambivalent about Mc Cain. So, in a way Hillary being on the ballot will bring those Republicans to a voting booth they might not otherwise bothered going to.

The way I see it (at this stage): I can envision various scenarios in which Obama wins or loses against Mc Cain. I can only envision scenarios in which Hillary loses against Mc Cain.

[mattclearing]

11. K&R. Great question, probably the most important question regarding the GE.

I think it would be unwise to underestimate the fear of Obama in the general electorate. There are a lot of ignorant, xenophobic, racist, etc. people in the U.S., even now. That said, I always vote my heart in the primaries, because I want the candidate who best represents me, so despite the risk, I choose Obama. And even so, nominating a woman is just as risky as nominating a black man, possibly more so.

Hatred of Hillary is constant and a given. I don't think there's any way to change it, it's been 16 years since she became well-known on the national scene, everyone has their mind made up about her. I don't see her converting people who don't like her now. I hope she has a plan to get to 51%, and it would be nice if it didn't involve smearing POW/anti-pork/campaign finance reformer (and certifiable war-hungry anti-abortion media whore) John McCain into oblivion.

[Diane R]

13. Hillary's high negatives and loathing from the repubs means Pres. McCain if she's the nominee.

[phrenzy]

15. Then Again....

It can also be said that Hillary has been so thoroughly demonized and has been made into such a monster already, that she has nowhere to go but up.

Obama, on the other hand, has a lot of room to fall.

The thing I've always liked about Hillary is that, there really isn't anything "new" that can come out and in that sense she is a 'safe' bet in that we know what we are working with.

Not so with Obama.

That said, I still think even in the best case scenario, with Hillary winning over some new friends, it still won't be enough to offset the HillHate(tm)