Here's the only hope left: the Superdelegates revolt

[Pab Sungenis]

What would happen if, with no one sewing up the nomination before we get to Denver, the still uncommitted Superdelegates refuse to decide the race?

Let them sit on their hands on the first ballot and vote for favorite sons, like used to be done in days of old, and let the first ballot lapse. Then there will be no more pledged delegates, and there can and probably will be nominations from the floor.

Both Hillary and Obama are too bloodied right now to win in November. Imagine if on the morning after the convention, John McCain, having prepared campaigns against Hillary and Obama, found himself running against Al Gore, John Kerry, or Howard Dean, a "compromise" candidate from the floor.

[joshcryer]

1. That's my dream situation but I am expecting a shared ticket.

It's unlikely either Obama or Hillary would allow it to go to a brokered convention because they don't want to lose their one shot at it. In a strange turn of events Obama may actually step down for the Vice Presidency, in order to get the Presidency in 2016.

[aquart]

13. No.

[ellisonz]

2. Organizational Disaster.

[mattclearing]

4. It would be 72 all over again.

No speech in prime time, a total mess.

[ellisonz]

5. The sad thing is that some on here think it would be a good think for democracy.

Yeah, 8 more years of Republican rule! I think I'll move to Europe.

[mattclearing]

7. It's the epitome of aristocracy.

We'll tell them who they can vote for. It invalidates the $billion+ primary battle.

[ellisonz]

9. Well as long as Queen Hillary beats Prince Barack for the throne...

;-)

[EmilyAnne]

3. That would be the end for the democratic party.

[aquart]

14. And don't forget the sky is falling, Chicken Little.

[Gore1FL]

6. It won't work matematically

At this point, Obama can almost coast to 2025. Hillary did not make the gains required.

[MonkeyFunk]

11. No

Obama probably can't make it to 2025. Superdelegates will have to decide.

[Gore1FL]

12. Yes Super delegates are 795 of the 4047 delegates

The math is behind Obama to coast to the threshold, even if Clinton has over a 10% margin of them--which is better than she is doing now.

[MonkeyFunk]

15. Sorry, you're wrong

it's very unlikely Obama will get 2025 pledged delegates.

[Gore1FL]

16. but it is pretty much assured he will get 2025 delgates

You have to add pledged and super delgates together to get 2025. (or technically 2024)

there are 4047 total delegates. Of those 795 are super delegates. That leaves 3253 pledge delegates. To get 2025 of those a candidate would have to earn an avergae of over 60% of them. That has never happened, and as you state won;t happen this time either.

However, even in Hillary gets over 438 of the 795 Super delegates, Obama is still more than on track to get 2025+ total delegates.

[MonkeyFunk]

17. Dude!

That's what I'm saying!

BOTH candidates will need superdelegates to win this thing. What are you arguing about?

[Gore1FL]

19. Nothing

It is what I have been saying all along. That's how it has been since they made super delegates part of the process.

There is no sin in getting super delegate votes. The issues with super delegates is if they use their 19.6% of the vote to wildly swing the vote away from the candidate who won the pledged delegates without the benefit of a major scandal to justify it.

[MonkeyFunk]

8. Nah

they're not even bruised much less bloody.

Everything's OK. STay calm.

[lapfog_1]

10. I know the political junkies love these thoughts

as do many of us here on DU that don't wholly embrace the candidates we have to choose from.

The press loves it because the story has "legs" for miles and miles.

But, the ones that love it best of all... are republicans.

a brokered convention with a compromise candidate would be a disaster in this day and age.

9 weeks between the selection of the candidate and the election.

A candidate with no campaign staff, no ground operations in the thousands of locations you need them, no time to raise money, and no tested message in THIS campaign cycle.

That is a recipe for a Republican victory.

Doesn't matter if the ticket is Gore/Edwards or Gore/Dean. It's too late to the game and too crazy to think about.

We get our collective asses handed to us on election day. Might even lose the House and Senate over it.

Say hello to President McCain.

[earthlover]

18. Say hello to President McCain also if both Clinton and Obama damage each other