Obama Campaign: Hillary's Chance Of Winning Actually Decreased Tonight

[Coexist]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_camp_hillarys_chance_of.php

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton is out with this statement on tonight's results:

“Tonight was the Clinton campaign’s last best chance to make a significant dent in our lead in pledged delegates and they have failed. In our latest projections, we will win the Texas caucus with a double-digit margin and any pledged delegate shift will be absolutely minimal. In fact, Clinton’s chances of regaining the delegate lead actually decreased tonight, as the number of delegates remaining dwindles."

Notwithstanding the shift in momentum and the P.R. victory tonight's results hand Hillary, it's possible that she'll finish the night without cutting into Obama's delegate lead at all.

On MSNBC a few moments ago Chuck Todd estimated that Hillary might pull seven delegates out of Ohio tonight. Todd also presumes that her Rhode Island victory and Obama's Vermont victory will cancel each other out.

And so, if Obama manages to win delegates out of Texas (thanks to the caucuses) that offset Hillary's Ohio delegate gain, she could end the night in pretty much the same position as she was in yesterday, at least as far as the pledged delegate count is concerned.

She won big victories tonight, no question, but it's unclear yet whether the shift in narrative she'll enjoy will transform the race's stubborn underlying dynamic in any significant way.

[npincus]

1. MSM is spinning Hillary's victory like a top... it seems that

their narrative excludes the fact that Obama was far behind in TX weks ago managed to almost close the gap in the PRIMARIES but is AHEAD in the Caucuses... Obama will probably beat Hillary in the caucuses so it is NOT a true victory for her.

[Kittycat]

2. It will work itself out after this weekend & next tuesday :)

Reality will set back in. They're still blinding by the confetti :eyes:

[catgirl]

3. And that she needed to win BIG in both states

TX was close (4 points, I think) and he'll probably win the caucus. Of course,
Hillary will spin this and say Obama has lost his momentum. MSM is already
doing that (ugh!).

I hope some Superdelegates see that HRC is hurting the party and come out
in support of Obama.

[backscatter712]

13. She didn't win big enough.

She won by 4 in Texas, and won by 10 in Ohio.

She needed to win both by 25 or more. Didn't make it.

Enjoy your net one delegate from tonight!

[npincus]

30. Since her "the-MSM-unfair" tantrum, they are marching to the beat of her drum

it reminds me of their deference to Chimpy.

[Eurobabe]

11. Just watched Tweety from last night, disgusting show

pure bullshit spin. The media wants a horse race. That's all.

[Window]

40. Exactly.

[ShaneGR]

4. But keep in mind, whoever goes to the GE HAS to win either Florida or Ohio

Period. No Dem candidate in the last couple generations has won the GE without carrying one of the two.

[Coexist]

6. a Dem won't win Florida either way and there is no reason to think

a Dem candidate won't win any state over the other.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Disagree

Hillary Clinton can win Florida as her husband and Al Gore did...

Like Bill Nelson, Reubin Askew, Lawton Chiles,and Bob Graham, she is tempermentally and ideologically suited to win a state wide race here...

Central Florida is the battle ground and she would do well here...

[Coexist]

22. we will have to disagree then

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. You Disagree That

You disagree that Reubin Askew, Lawton Chiles, Bill Nelson, and Bob Graham have been able to successfully navigate Florida politics...

[Coexist]

29. I disagree that Clinton mirrors them.

and will succeed here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Bill Clinton Mirrored Them

I have to admit I was surprised he contested it in 96 and more surprised he won it...

Even John Kerry, who is certainly out of tune with the Florida electorate, ran a credible race against the uber-popular governor's brother...

Hillary could do it and fairly easily...

[Coexist]

39. Hill of today is no Bill of yesteryear.

[dansolo]

50. Not against McCain

I don't think that either candidate will have a chance to win Florida. The only possibility might be an Obama/Graham ticket, since he is very popular there.

[RoadRage]

9. Well, no black or female candidate has ever won, period..

There are going to be a lot of "firsts" in this campaign. And, regarding OH.. who is more NAFTA friendly - Obama or McCain? Exactly.. canadian conspiricy aside.. those voting for Clinton tonight are not going to sit home and let 4 years of McCain roll into the ground.. they're going to vote for Obama if he's the ticket.

Obama could still win the state of Ohio in a General Election, and he probably does need to win that state to win the General. But, just because Clinton won the primary does NOT mean that she would neccessarily win the General. Many republicans just crossed over to vote for her yesterday so they can vote against her in the fall.

[slick8790]

16. No they don't.

They could win any combination of Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, and Virginia.

[DrFunkenstein]

20. A Look at Voter Turnout is a Better Indicator

Dems pulled out tons of more voters because of the excitement gap. If you could locate campaign contributions by state, it'd be even more heartening.

[Apollo11]

5. Hillary laughs in the face of your "stubborn underlying dynamic"!

[Coexist]

7. she needs to fix her dental work

not a great photo.

[Stephanie]

10. that is pretty bad

WTF?

[catgirl]

41. LOL- I needed a good laugh today!

I didn't expect that. Thanks!

[Hepburn]

32. Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek!

OMG....what a horrible picture!

[Apollo11]

35. Hillary has a lifetime of experience

At least her teeth aren't stained yellow from 25 years of cigarettes.

Edit: Or is it 30? :eyes:

[catgirl]

42. They don't look like real teeth

At least not all of them. Okay, I'm just having some fun here. It's nice
to find a lighthearted thread.

[ORDem]

8. Yep. She essentially wasted 4 states.

Her delegate count will increase by 1 or 2 or decrease by 1 or 2, but those 4 states are done and were a third of the remaining. The math just gets tougher for her.

Don't fall for this Clinton-Obama ticket crap, either. She's trying to spin again to peel off Obama supporters. He's got this thing in the bag.

:dem:

[The_Casual_Observer]

12. Obama is getting desperate.

He outspent her 3-1 in a real primary & lost by double digits. Axlerod is spinning like a top.

[stillcool]

15. I'm not sure I understand this....

after the 11 straight wins, or whatever it was, didn't she have to win by like 60% in both states to make any gains? And, since she didn't is that because Obama had more campaign contributions or just spent them more wisely? Do the number of delegates still count?

[The_Casual_Observer]

17. 11 straight wins in meaninless states fueled by Obomania.

Lets see how he does in PA.

[theboss]

24. Wisconsin, Maryland, and Virginia thank you for calling them meaningless

Is this really a valid strategy?

[catgirl]

44. Washington and Minnesota are swing states too

I suppose they are meaningless too.

[stillcool]

34. meaningless?

what about delegates? Are they meaningless too? What has meaning?

[JackORoses]

36. meaningless States which gave Obama put Obama 100 delegates ahead

Hillary can't catch up.
Thanks, Insignificant States, you just chose the nominee!

[catgirl]

43. No state is meaningless

Dean's 50 state strategy was brilliant.

[KittyWampus]

26. he closed a huge lead and withstood the swiftboating from the Clintons' campaign without going

negative himself.

Your girl and her campaign said they'd be within a few delegates after last night.

They are not.

[goclark]

33. Obama is fine

I just got a beautiful email from him this morning.

I sent him an email back and I hit the button again for another donation. Your remarks have inspired me to visit www.barackobama.com to hit the button again.

I like him exactly where he is ~ crystalizing the Dream of Dr. King.

He is working to make this world a better place, he wants us all to "sit down together at the table of brotherhood."

That is something that has never been done before in American politics therefore the road is not traveled.

Axelrod is not spinning, he is telling the truth.

Got to go hit the button again ~ thanks

[ginnyinWI]

38. I donated again this morning, too.

Every month at the beginning of the month. :)

[goclark]

45. Every time I have to respond to a negative post from a Billary

I donate another $5 to his campaign.

Fired Up! Ready to go!

[Sir Jeffrey]

14. Shhh...

You're ruining the media narrative

[Coexist]

18. Axelrod: if she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals

I write that Clinton's lesson from March 4 is that attacking Obama works, while David Axelrod indicates that Obama's ready to hit Clinton harder than he has.

``We have not hesitated to draw distinctions between the candidates and we'll continue to do that," said Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod. "If Sen. Clinton wants to take the debate to various places, we'll join that debate. We'll do it on our terms and in our own way but if she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals and all t

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Hello_Pennsylvania.html

[RBInMaine]

25. Good, then do it !! GO THE HELL ON OFFENSE.

[Coexist]

28. I think we'll see some now - some much closer to voting dates.

and I can't wait.

[DrFunkenstein]

21. Chuck Todd Has Been Doing an Excellent Job of Watching the Delegates

While other journalists have been chasing rabbits, the NBC political director has had his eye where it counts - on the math.

[RBInMaine]

23. This DOES give her momentum. Obama, GO ON OFFENSE !

If the Obama team can't the learn the lesson from last night, then he should lose. This kind of election is a FIGHT and NOTHING compared to what the R's will throw at him if he were to win the nomination. Hillary at least understands this. If he wants to sit back on his heels and play Mr. Nicey Nice like Kerry tried to do in '04, then he WILL get beaten and deservedly so. I WANT him to win, but he needs to now change with the shifting dynamics and start FIGHTING FORWARD so as to re-take the driver's seat in this thing. If he doesn't learn the lessons of Dukakis and Kerry, then he deserves to lose. That's politics folks. It is a tough, tough business. Hillary is going for the jugular, and she'll connect no matter how much Obama and his team poo-poo about delegate counts. A President also needs to be tough and to be a proactive fighter.
She'll overtake him if he doesn't get off his ass and start hitting her HARD.

[FogerRox]

47. How? She needed 57% of delegates to be on track to catch Obama....

Of the 370 delegates in play last night, HRC needed 57% to catch Obama, thats 211., she got about 52%, 191 delegates, at best 191. IF HRC gets 183 for tuesday, thats about 50%.

SO yeah, last nights results make it worse for HRC.

[Coexist]

48. but he needs to put her away.

[ginnyinWI]

37. K&R for reality. n/t

[FogerRox]

46. Correct, HRC needed 57% of delegates.

Of the 370 delegates in play last night, HRC needed 57% to catch Obama, thats 211., she got about 52%, 191 delegates, at best 191. IF HRC gets 183 for tuesday, thats about 50%.

SO yeah, last nights results make it worse for HRC.

[FrenchieCat]

49. and that's the truth!