My theory on Republican crossovers

[democrattotheend]

This is not intended to promote one candidate or the other, or to weigh in on the legitimacy of Republican crossovers. Just a little analysis to help us put it in perspective. Based on anecdotal and polling evidence, I think Republicans who vote in Democratic primaries fall into three categories:

1. Genuine supporters of a Democratic candidate. A lot of Republicans are fed up with Bush and looking for a change. Based on my experience in Columbus over the weekend, where I met a lot of Republicans who were torn between McCain and Obama for the primary and the general but said they'd never vote for Hillary, I think a majority, though certainly not all, of the Republicans who genuinely favor a Democratic candidate support Obama.

2. Republicans who are voting for the lesser of two evils. These people probably won't vote Democratic in the fall, but at least find one Democrat less objectionable than the other and are voting for the Democrat they'd rather have in the White House in case McCain loses. I think a lot of Democrats voted for McCain in the primaries in 2000 for the same reason. This group is probably more for Obama than Clinton, given the amount of hatred she (unfairly) inspires among Republicans and the fact that some Republicans like Obama personally even if they don't agree with his views.

3. Strategic voters. This group is much smaller than the other two, but at this point, I think it is safe to say that a large majority of strategic Republican voters are voting for Clinton. That may not have been true early on, since Republicans were somewhat divided over who would be easier to beat. But at this point, regardless of which Dem looks easier to beat, it was in their interest to keep our primary going for as long as possible. The fact that Limbaugh was advocating that listeners vote for Clinton yesterday probably increased the number of strategic crossovers.

[yourout]

1. I agree with what you say but you will be shouted down rather loudly by supporters of she who can..

not be named.

[democrattotheend]

4. Why?

I tried to make this as objective as possible. I conceded that some of Obama's Republican votes come from Republicans who just want to see Clinton go down and won't vote for him in November.

[yourout]

7. I tried to warn you.......

[LisaM]

2. Well, you've certainly spun that in favor of Obama.

Which begs the question of why he attracts Republicans who really want to cast a vote for him.

[yourout]

9. People underestimate the absolute hatred of all things Clinton by the right.

There are many middle of the road Republicans that could be convinced to get behind Obama in the GE that would rather sacrifice a child than vote for Hillary. They will turn out in droves to vote AGAINST her. Not FOR McCain.

This hatred is not founded on policy differences it is a product of years of mind shaping from hate radio and media spin.

[LisaM]

12. They also hate Kerry, Dean, Gore, and anything associated with the Democratic party

I think it's naive to think otherwise.

OTOH, I honestly believe that there are some Obama supporters (here) who likewise do not like Hillary and simply cannot believe anyone would support her. I support her. I think she's tough, feisty, smart, a hard worker, and a fighter. I think her heart's in the right place. I freely admit I would love a woman president, and I think she would be a good one. However, I can also fully understand why others are moved by Obama, and why they support him. I just wish Obama voters would return the favor.

[democrattotheend]

14. I can understand why people support Hillary

There are a lot of qualities I like about her. Like you said, she is tough, feisty, smart, and hardworking. And like you, I love the idea of a woman president. I am not entirely sure I agree about her heart being in the right place, though I certainly think she cares about people.

I don't like the way she has conducted herself in this campaign, but I certainly understand why her supporters like her. A few months ago I would have been proud to support her as the nominee. Now, I will still support her, but I will do so with a heavy heart, knowing that the establishment and fear mongering won out over a message of hope and grassroots activism.

[LisaM]

15. This is far from being the most negative campaign of all time

Or even in the last three election cycles, but I don't think Obama has been any better. He is perhaps more subtle, but he's gotten in plenty of digs of his own.

[msongs]

3. repubs vote 4 obama = good, repubs vote 4 clinton = bad nt

[democrattotheend]

6. I never said that

I specifically said that some of his Republican votes come from people who hate Hillary and won't vote for him in November (category #2).

[goddess40]

5. That's why we need to get rid of open primaries

Those that are genuine supporters can join the democratic party and vote in the primary. The other two would also have to join and they may find that too objectionable.

[democrattotheend]

8. I agree that we should not let registered Repukes vote in the primary

But disagree about independents. Self-identified Democrats only make up at most 40% of the electorate...we can't win in November without support from independents.

[yourout]

10. You will get no argument from me.......good idea.

[Mz Pip]

11. As far as the strategic voters go

I think it ends up being prety much of a wash. There are Republicans who believe Obama will be easier to beat and vote for him. There are Republicans who beleive Hillary will be easier to beat and will vote for her. Maybe Limpballs made a difference, but i doubt a big enough one to swing the election to Clinton.

[democrattotheend]

13. A month ago, I'd have agreed

But I think at this point, now that McCain has the nomination wrapped up, from a strategic perspective, it makes sense for Republicans to back whichever Dem is losing in order to keep our primary going as long as possible.