REALITY CHECK: Obama +1 in delegates since Monday...

[Obamaniac]

It's time the Clinton supporters who think winning three out of fifteen primaries is somehow evidence of their superior electoral chances realize what has happened in the past week.

HILLARY LOST 8 DELEGATES IN CALIFORNIA TODAY, AND GAINED ONLY 7 TOTAL ON MARCH 5.

www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/6/21221/08201

You read that right. Hillary is actually one delegate down since Monday. This is what happened.

Hillary's margin of victory in California has dropped to 8.9%, thus the final delegate total will be officially: 203 for Clinton; 167 for Obama.

This figure represents an eight point plus for Barack Obama from original estimates.

This past Tuesday Obama won +3 in Vermont, Hillary won +4 in Rhode Island and +9 in Ohio and it is being estimated, given Obama's strong lead in the caucus, that he will actually win the Texas delegate count by +3. This means that the delegate difference between Hillary and Obama on Tuesday was only +7 for Clinton.

If you take the eight votes Obama has officially gained in California and subtract them from the seven votes Clinton gained on Tuesday, Obama actually comes away with one more vote than Hillary since Monday.

That sucks if you're a Clinton supporter going on and on about how you're going to win.

Wait, it gets worse...

According to the AP, the superdelegate projections haven't been updated in a while.

Since Super Tuesday, Obama has added 53 delegates (not including the 50 who are privately backing him but holding back on making a public endorsement). In that same time Hillary has had a net loss of 1 super-delegate.

It's entirely possible that Obama leads among super-delegates right now.

Wait, it gets worse...

It appears that the pipedream of allowing MI and FL's votes to count for Hillary is not going to happen.

There is serious discussions going on to hold a "re-vote." But given how expensive primaries are, they will probably hold caucuses instead. This is almost a sure thing in Michigan.

File this under: advantage Obama.

www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/6/192428/5502#2commenttop

[NJSecularist]

1. Wow... all the provisional ballots in CA knocked 2 points off Hillary's total?

[JackORoses]

2. ahahaahaahahaha!

good call, sir!

[ProSense]

14. .

:rofl:

[jakem]

3. kick.

thank you!

[polichick]

4. How very karmic! (Is that a word?)

[thevoiceofreason]

9. It is now!

[skooooo]

5. Obama is the nominee.

[sueragingroz]

6. +1 Obama. That was some knock-out punch!

[Zachstar]

12. Actually it is.

Clinton needed upwards of 50-100 delegates NET from the 4th (But common atleast 20!) To make the case that she needs to seriously continue this.

Now it has turned around and actually given OBAMA yet another delegate.

Texas and Ohio have now voted you see... She is now heading into Obama territory for the next MONTH! A month that will also be used to expose her for what she is.

It did not knock her completely out of the ring.. But it did knock out any chance of winning without use of the supers. A move many stated WILL NOT HAPPEN!

It is over for her now! she now has to win EVEN HIGHER in every state from here on out and pick up a ton of supers. Multiple upcoming states are Obama territory that will set the needed wins from that point forward EVEN higher!

[Obamaniac]

15. She won't be knocked out...

She'll go on until the end of June, in my opinion. I think she will lose because the math simply doesn't favor her. I can't believe some people are falling for her little expectation game schtick. I mean who's ever heard of playing expectation games after 40 primaries?

It's about the math, plain and simple. Clinton supporters may complain about that, but that's the way it is. They can't will or bully their way to the nomination. They have to win primaries (and a lot more than 3 out of 15), they have to win delegates. Delegates decide the nominee. That's the way it's always been. They're not going to change that system at the end of the process now because it's unfavorable to Hillary Clinton.

Obama has at least nine upcoming primaries/caucuses in the bag. I even think he has the advantage in Michigan at this point.

The nomination is his. Clinton supporters are just smoking something funny.

[Zachstar]

7. Great topic!

I suggest we bookmark this and post the link to it every time a Clinton supporter starts going on about her "momentum"

At this rate hopefully this train wreck that is the Clinton Campaign will be over by April.

[IDemo]

8. Obama will add another 5 or 6 to his net total in Wyoming this Saturday

But of course, they won't matter!

[sloppyjoe25s]

10. nice post indeed

math sucks if you are supporting Mrs. Clinton. It must be hard on her.

[stop the bleeding]

11. one thing

please don't reference the secret 50 until/if/when they are revealed. We don't need to rely on them, we'll just use the concrete numbers that are out there. They seem to working pretty good so far.;-)

Thanks for the update:beer:

[Obamaniac]

13. They exist...

They were ready to endorse him yesterday. It was going to be a big demonstration on Capitol Hill. They still support him, according to other Obama super-delegates who have gone public, but have decided to not make their endorsement public right away.

[stop the bleeding]

16. Ok

I know what you're saying but referencing them until it is authentic makes us look a bit kooky:tinfoilhat:, and god knows the amount of shit on these boards is enough for now. Let's just rely on the real math.

[dailykoff]

17. Alerting.

Violates the religious beliefs of botox believers.

[BlueJac]

18. Ha ha ha

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:


In the mean time wake up and see the real Hillary, she loves Mc Cain and you must too!

[FrenchieCat]

19. Love the Reality Check in your title!

Cause that's keeping it real! :rofl:

[Georgie_92]

20. Gobama! Can't wait for the SD update!

[Kukesa]

21. First time I've smiled since Tuesday night. Thanx. n/t

[Obamaniac]

22. No problem...

Keep this bumped so everyone will get a chance to read it. There's been a lot of traffic lately and it's hard to sustain a good thread.

Also give it a recommendation so that it'll appear on the greatest page.

[Orsino]

23. This is childish.

There's no reason to rub it in the faces of Clinton's supporters like this. I know a lot of acrimony is going both ways in this battle, but neener-neeners are inappropriate.

[Obamaniac]

25. How is this rubbing in anything?

It's telling it like it is.

[Orsino]

26. "That sucks if you're a Clinton supporter going on and on about how you're going to win. "

That's more than "telling it like it is."

[JBoy]

33. Math rules.

[Orsino]

34. But childishness gloats. n/t

[Zhade]

37. Considering the sheer arrogance and sense of entitlement from many Clinton supporters...

...I'd call it karma.

[Scurrilous]

24. Reality Kick.

:kick:

[tekisui]

27. Wow, CA was not a double-digit win.

[arundhatiroyfan]

28. even better than I expected

:kick:

[mckeown1128]

29. Kick and Rec

Hey, does anyone have an accurate updated counting of Pledged and Super Delegates??? I have been trying to find an updated list and can't. I'm really desperate here.

[Zachstar]

32. Yes we could use some links..

[Barack_America]

30. And don't forget those 5 superdelegate endorsements yesterday!

Hmmm, not such a bad week after all!

[Obamaniac]

36. So it would seem Obama is plus 8 delegates over Hillary since...

...last Monday.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

31. What is this thing called "maff" I keep hearing about?

[Obamaniac]

35. You can add another 3 delegates from Wyoming.

I love how Clinton people always claim that she is leading, yet every week since this thing began Obama has won more delegates than her.

Even if it goes to the convention, which I suspect it will, he'll be okay because this thing is won by convention delegates.

[AtomicKitten]

38. Has NY reapportioned the delegates from all the precincts Obama registered ZERO votes - like Harlem?

[krawhitham]

39. Hmm

Since Super Tuesday, Obama has added 53 delegates (not including the 50 who are privately backing him but holding back on making a public endorsement). In that same time Hillary has had a net loss of 1 super-delegate.

I'll believe the 50 when I see it