How Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

[awaysidetraveler]

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As it stands (notwithstanding superdelegates) Hillary Clinton needs to beat Barak Obama by an average of 24% in the remaining elections to surpass Obama's 141 pledged delegate lead (AP) and win the nomination.

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter /

If she keeps her 32 superdelegate lead, she needs only an 18% average lead over Barak Obama to beat his 109 total delegate lead.

If Florida and Michigan hold new elections and allow Obama to campaign, Rasmussen projects that Hillary Clinton
would win. In Florida she would gain about 55% of the vote, giving her roughly 108 delegates, and Obama would
lose with only 39% of the vote, gaining 77 delegates. However, they are statistically tied in Michigan, meaning
that Obama would likely split the vote there with Clinton. Therefore, Clinton should gain 31 delegates in this
scenario, which we'll call scenario A.

In scenario A, after the FL and MI re-vote, Clinton will only need a 12% average lead over Obama to secure the democratic nomination.

Florida's election put Hillary Clinton at 49% (105 delegates), Barak Obama at 33% (67 delegates),
with Edwards at 14% (13 delegates). So if Florida is seated as is, Clinton stands to gain a net
of 38 pledged delegates. Michigan's election gave Hillary Clinton 55% of the vote (73 delegates),
and "undeclared" might go for Obama in a settlement, leaving him 40% of the vote and 55 delegates.

So if these delegates are seated as is, Clinton will gain a net of 56 delegates in this scenario,
which we'll call scenario B.

In scenario B, Hillary keeps her superdelegate lead, convinces Howard Dean to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates
as is, and then she wins the remaining races by an average of 8% in each of the remaining elections.

Will "scenario B" occur? If it could occur, would it be advisable? The answer to that is no, and again no.
Democrats agree on fair rules where everybody gets to vote and all the votes get counted:
if you can't agree to that, then you're simply not one of us--no matter who you vote for.

So that leaves the 12% hope of Hillary Clinton in scenario A, which is an almost impossible scenario.

Why hasn't the media divulged this mathematical reality to Hillary Clinton and her supporters? Well... it is complicated math, I'll grant you that. But why isn't the media breaking it down and reporting it as a simple fact?

I suspect that they want us to slug it out in the streets. Should we let them divide our party that way?

No.

Best of luck as you find your way back home to the Democratic Party.

[SoFlaJet]

1. or she can try and win it like this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BDqbPs27As

[galadrium]

2. I think shes going for this plan

[awaysidetraveler]

3. Excellent video...

Yeah, she's a spoiler alright. The thing is, being a spoiler won't win this election.

[Sulawesi]

4. I think it is a longer shot that you say...

You let her keep her 32 superdelegate lead, and say she needs 109 to catch him. But if she did make up this differential (resting on the current superdelegate lead) then she would need more to pass him in the pledged dels.

It would be best to ignore superdels completely (almost tied now anyway) and tally what is needed to overtake him in pledged delegates.

If that ended up close, but she was short, she could use a win in the popular vote to offset losses in the delegates and muddy the waters for the superdelegates, btw.

[awaysidetraveler]

5. I agree that I painted a rosy picture, but I suspect that many HRC followers are wearing

rose-colored glasses as they look at the math.

As far as that slate.com site is showing, Hillary would need a 24% average lead to overcome Obama's 141 pledged delegate lead.
More, of course, if you count the Texas caucus.

I also ran a likely projection, which left Obama with close to a 150-200 pledged delegate lead,
and like you I suspect that the superdelegates are going to follow Obama in a very short while.

After all... she's just a spoiler now.

[LisaL]

6. She doesn't need to overcome any leads.

Why did your forgot to mention that since neither will get the necessary votes for the nomination, it goes to the convention?
And it doesn't matter if Obama has a lead over her?

[awaysidetraveler]

7. Now the delegates don't matter? What about votes, do votes matter?

What matters then? You see, if she isn't winning the nomination by way of pledged delegates, then she isn't winning the popular vote, or the delegate battle, or even the most number of states.

Don't run off, now. Answer the question: what constitutes winning and losing in this election?

[awaysidetraveler]

8. It's such a strange argument... I really wish you would clarify it for me.

I've heard it before, but it makes no sense to me: I've just listed all of the possible variables.

So she goes to the convention with fewer delegates than Obama. How does that become a win?
Superdelegates just ignore the popular vote, the pledged delegate vote and they shoe-in FL and MI?

So you're arguing that superdelegates will, by themselves make up for the 8% pro-Obama spread after the FL and MI shoe in?
Or are you arguing that after a vote in FL and MI the superdelegates will make up for a 12% pro-Obama spread?

In short, are you really arguing against democracy? And if so, why are you writing here?

[Sulawesi]

9. Just think a little bit about the scenario you propose...

...really, just ponder it. It makes Florida 2000 look fair...at least they pretended the votes mattered.

[awaysidetraveler]

10. Hey... you know, I think it's just freeper rethugs wandering through for the most part...

The bottom line is that democrats believe in their votes counting for a purpose, and rethugs don't get it.

Granted, some of these Clinton supporters might be the real thing, but if they are then they should be talking numbers.

They just don't.

That and CNN... and the rest of the media, who are blowing Clinton's campaign up to boost ratings.

The media deserves the brunt of our anger, not Clinton.

[MadBadger]

11. When you spell his name wrong twice, I have to point it out...BaraCk Obama

[awaysidetraveler]

12. Drat, right you are.

Thanks for pointing it out. Any thoughts on the post?

[MadBadger]

13. You would need to add something to all this..the superdelegates in Michigan and Florida

She has a lead in both states in SD's.

[awaysidetraveler]

14. Ah, interesting... yes.

Only how can I count them? I guess that they go either in scenario A or B... but to be honest, I don't think
we can contemplate just seating MI or FL without a second vote. Where do the superdelegates go then?

Also I'm looking for numbers of superdelegates. Thanks, though....

No, all I see are articles about superdelegates shifting from one side to the next in Florida.

Got a link?