I think people are going to be surprised how well Hillary does in Mississippi

[Herman Munster]

A couple factors:

Mississippi along with Alabama are probably the most racist states in the union. Obama got 25% of the white vote in Alabama. I expect him to get under 20% in Mississippi.

Also, Hillary will get more black support in Mississippi. Arkansas shares a long border with Mississppi. She very well could push 20% in the black vote which is significant.

At that point it all depends on turnout, but if for argument, turnout is 55% black, 45% white and Hillary gets 80% of whites and 20% of blacks.

Obama only wins only by 53-47.

If there is a surge of independents and republucians, it will help Hillary as more whites will be voting.

If turnout is 50% white, 50% black, the race is dead even.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. I don't think so - Herman.. You're wrong as usual.

Hillary pissed off Misssissippi last year, and they have _LONG_ memories. She'll be lucky if she breaks 40%

Hawkeye-X

[ingac70]

3. The Rush listeners have nothing else better to do...

now that McCain is the definite nom. They'll come out in droves to vote for Hillary.

[jackson_dem]

28. Who won the rethug vote in Ohio and Texas?

Obama...

[ingac70]

54. ....

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/7/7116/66189

[Maddy McCall]

2. Mississippi has more black elected officials than any other state.

That could not happen without blacks and whites voting for black candidates.

I resent your label of my state.

[Lucinda]

5. I agree with you. I think she'll do well, but racism won't be the reason why.

[thunder rising]

11. Make it happen :-)

:applause:

[NDambi]

37. Matty Matt...you know Hillary ain't gonna win Ole Miss...black folk ain't gonna vote for her

in large blocs, that's gone forever.

[woolldog]

40. 50% of whites in mississippi said they would never vote for Obama

17% of men said they would never vote for Clinton.

Everyone knows Miss and Alabama are the most racist states in the country.

[Mooney]

4. I think it's funny

that you're touting racism as something working in HRC's favor, and you're one of her supporters. If I were one of her supporters I would never even bring that up, and I would hope no one else did either.

[Kaylee]

46. I agree. I didn't even respond the first time I read the OP.

The glee with which the OP touted racial divisions in Mississippi deserved no comment. All I could do was shake my head.

[K Gardner]

6. Like Hillary, you will say ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING, no matter how untrue, no matter who it hurts. Just

to make yourself feel better. Shame on you.

[NJSecularist]

7. It's great that Hillary can count on the racist white vote

It must make her campaign so proud.

[thunder rising]

15. Hey, she's finally found a demographic she can call her own!!

:eyes:

[adoraz]

8. no, just watch

60% of those showing up will be black, and close to 90% of them will go for Obama. he will definitely get at least 20% of the white vote, probably closer to 30%. It will be at least a double digit lead.

[NeedleCast]

9. A close loss or tie in Mississippi helps Hillary how?

[thunder rising]

17. It's that Hillary math! You win by just barely losing.

:crazy:

[Herman Munster]

18. it damages obama in the expectations game

and more media pile on. That's how. It's a long 6 weeks till pennsylvania.

[Hawkeye-X]

22. Unfortunately after MS and WY, Hillary will have increased pressure

to 'suspend' her campaign for the good of the Party.

[Zynx]

33. Before PA which has far more people than MS and WY together?

[Hawkeye-X]

44. I guess you're not using the delegate math.

Right now it's 99.9% impossible for Hillary to catch up on the remaining delegates.

There is 0.01% chance that Hillary will win by twisting the arms of the SD's which is not going to happen.

So it's best if Hillary drops out right now. Close to 40 states have decided... I know how much you want to let the rest of the states vote, but it's a waste of time, personally. DNC needs to start fundraising in preparation for the GE, and the downticket Democrats need help, and we have to stop focusing on Obama vs. Clinton.

Hawkeye-X

[NeedleCast]

23. Again, how does that help Hillary?

If she ties in the rest of the states and wins PA by 20% she's still 100 delegates behind going into convention.

[jackson_dem]

31. She doesn't need to close the elected delegate count

If she can win the popular vote nationally and end the primaries with momentum and a near sweep of the big states she has a strong case to make to the superdelegates, who both candidates will need to get to 2,024.

[jackson_dem]

34. In the real world it does

In 0bamanatin he is bullet proof.

[goclark]

57. can you edit for your poor choice of words

I'm sure you meant no harm.

[Syrinx]

10. calling voters racists isn't likely to help your cause

[bluestateguy]

12. You seem content to accept votes from whites on the basis of race

Why doesn't Hillary reject and denounce anyone who would support her simply to vote against Obama because of his race?

[jackson_dem]

30. Why doesn't Obama? He is getting 88% black support

Do you think race isn't a factor in that? They have the same 100% NAACP voting records. Edwards had a 97% NAACP rating and lost the black vote 78-1 to Obama in SC despite winning the white vote 40-24 over Obama in SC.

One candidate publicly disavowed votes on race and gender: Edwards. We deserve the racist and sexist cesspool we are in for rewarding the two candidates who [played the race and gender cards.

[yardwork]

47. But Obama doesn't go around saying that he's counting on the black racist vote.

That's the difference.

I mean, you've got a point about both candidates. Obama lost my support for months when he appealed to homophobes. At least he hasn't done that again. Hillary, on the other hand, seems to be counting on the white racist vote to get the nomination.

That's....just wrong.

[woolldog]

51. LOL.

Edwards is great. I'm sure he'd be ashamed that your one of his supporters though.

Blacks have shown that they will support white candidates. Whites have shown that most will support a black candidate. There is a healthy minority who have shown that they aren't so progressive.

Do you understand the difference between voting for someone b/c they are part of your group and are making an historic run at the presidency, and voting against someone based on their race or group?

It's why Mormons voted overwhelmingly 90+ % for Romney and why Catholics voted overwhelming for JFK and why blacks are supporting Obama.

[woolldog]

60. Edwards did.

Not sure how much of an effect it had (probably none), but it was classy.

[BklynChick]

13. it's kind of sick to be saying yay hillary she'll do so well because there are so many racists there

[bluestateguy]

27. And the racists who DO vote for her, won't be there for her in November anyway

They are probably just following their Rush Limbaugh marching orders to vote for Hillary the Unelectable in the primary. Such voters tend to call the Democratic Party the "black party" and vote Republican on that basis no matter who the Democrats nominate.

[yardwork]

48. Absolutely correct.

The Democratic Party is not the party of racists! For a Democrat to be using this approach is just wrong. Totally wrong.

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. 53-54% for Obama, I agree with that (but nothing else you said).

Works for me.

[ExFreeper4Obama]

16. Your overly optimistic

Even if he only wins 53-47 its not good for Hillary at all. She needs blowouts in order to close the delegate gap. Huge blowouts. It will actually get worse for her in the big picture.

[Skidmore]

19. Hermie, I guess all I can say is it takes one

to know one.

[Quixote1818]

20. Mississippi has more blacks than any other state. 40% of the population.

Also, Obama will win the white moderates and independents, not Hillary. And if you suggest Mississippi whites are prejudice against blacks, who is to say the men are not prejudice against women? You seem to be hoping it is filled with shallow, prejudice people which may lead to Hillary being close? Is that something you would be proud of?

[NJSecularist]

21. He did the same thing with Pennsylvania

Yes, that is something he is hoping for and something he would be proud of.

[Quixote1818]

42. I guess when you are desperate you court the bigot vote

Unbelievable.

[yardwork]

50. That attitude will sure go over well in MS, too. Real flattering!

I can just see Hillary's campaign riding into Mississippi with the campaign slogan - "I know you're all ignorant racists. Vote for me!"

Brilliant. :eyes:

[muntrv]

24. Geez, you make Hillary sound like George Wallace.

[NDambi]

38. lol

[democrattotheend]

25. You could be right

Although I don't see Clinton getting 80% of whites, unless the Limbaugh Republicans cross over. I could see her getting as much as 65% of the white vote, but not 80%. And I'd be surprised if she got 20% of the black vote. But it could be closer than we expect. I'm not taking anything for granted...will make phone calls over the weekend.

[Yossariant]

26. I'm a Hillary people and I don't think she'll do well in Mississippi.

Obama is entitled to the black vote.

[apocalypsehow]

29. Anything to win, right? Even if it means subtle appeals to racism...

Disgusting.

[jackson_dem]

36. Yes, how do you think St. 0bama went from losing the black vote to winning it 88-12?

[yardwork]

53. What part of this was subtle?

[apocalypsehow]

56. Excellent point - I stand corrected.

n/t.

[Zynx]

32. This is borderline one of the most disgusting posts I have ever read.

[yardwork]

61. It's been very easy to hit home runs off of. I'll give it that.

[NDambi]

35. LOL Not...gonna happen...Herman...

[yardwork]

39. I'm really uncomfortable with anyone winning on the basis of racism.

It's chilling to read a Hillary supporter cheerfully counting on the racist vote.

Man. Just leaves me feeling really uncomfortable. That's one reason I moved over to supporting Obama last week. I want this country to move on from racism.

After that, maybe we can tackle sexism. And homophobia.

[jackson_dem]

41. It is hard to say whether it was racism but Obama did win SC on race

Whites: Edwards 40, Hillary 36, 0bama 24
Blacks: obama 78, Hillary 19, Edwards 1
Total: 0bama 55, Hillary 27, Edwards 18

These numbers are too out of whack to be a product of chance. Race is the obvious determining variable.

0bama is an odd choice if you want to vote for a candidate not winning on racism, not to mention homophobia. His SC numbers didn't start to move until his homophobia tour in South Carolina last fall.

[BklynChick]

49. I do think there's a difference between winning because people of your own race (or gender) lean

towards you than people who vote against you because of your race (or gender). big difference.

[jackson_dem]

52. In order to do that, though, you must vote against someone else based on their race or gender

Ask John Edwards...

How about voting on issues? Edwards may have been the nominee if that were the case. He tied among white males with the two celebrities but Obama has nearly unanimous black support while Hill has always had large female support, especially among white women. This is what Edwards got for not playing the race and gender card like HillBama did. :(

[yardwork]

62. What card could Edwards have played?

Edwards had the misfortunate to be running against two historically unique candidates, each with their own demographic. For once, the straight white guy got elbowed out.

Edwards's platform was also anathema to the corporations that own the media outlets.

[yardwork]

59. It's not the same thing. Black people support Obama, but not out of hatred of whites.

After all, black people have never had the opportunity to vote for a viable black candidate for president before. That's far different from voting for a white person out of hatred for blacks.

I agree with you that Obama certainly used homophobia to jumpstart his campaign in SC. That cost him my support for months.

[Zynx]

43. I agree. Deplorable OP.

[yardwork]

63. Maybe we should alert on it.

[susankh4]

58. Me too.

And I think that anyone getting 90% of one racial group is clearly winning based on racism.

[yardwork]

64. Not necessarily. There's a difference between people enthusiastically supporting

somebody on the basis of a characteristic (Obama because he's black; Hillary because she's a woman) and a campaign counting on a *racist* vote, in which people vote *against* somebody because of their sex or ethnicity.

[gristy]

45. Yes, I will be surprised

if she gets 42% :evilgrin:

[susankh4]

55. Could be!

Hillary has been developing a message for a whole new constituancy. That is white males. And they seem to like what she is saying.... and the kinds of endorsements she is getting.

Go Hillary!

[Bullet1987]

65. Herman, you're wrong as usual

Hillary usually gets an 80-20 split in the Black vote...and that is HORRIBLE in a state where close to 65% of the voters will be Black...lol.

[grantcart]

66. Its better to go the other way

Herman Hillary will win in a landslide. I am sure that she will get not one vote less than 67%

It will be one of her greates victories anywhere.

Its just going to be awesome.