60 Democratic Seats in the Senate? -maybe-

[mikekohr]

A filibuster proof majority in the Senate is an outside possibility given the mood of the electorate, a meager 22% approve the the direction of the country. Among Independents, the key to winning the White House and Senate seats, a dismal 11% think the country is on the right track. Among voting age Americans, 52% now self identify as Democrats, as opposed to 35% who cling to the dark-side.

And then there's the math. Republicans have to defend 23 Senate seats, five of those seats are left open by retirement. Of the 23 Republican Senate seats up for re-election 6 to 9 are considered vulnerable, Democrats only have to defend 12 seats with none in real danger of defeat.

In the primaries and caucus', Democrats have turned out 28.5 million voters, Republicans have only managed to turn out 17.3 million voters thus far.

The Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee has over $30 million on hand, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has roughly $13 million in the bank.

With the most favorable political winds at our backs in 70 years, with the excitement, energy, and the engagement of young and first time voters generated by the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama and the historic candidacy of Senator Clinton we stand poised to reset the FDR coalition.

If only we avoid a bitter, and divisive end game in the presidential primary. If only we avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

We can only hope.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mike kohr

[frogcycle]

1. perhaps as important as who wins the POTUS

a 60-vote senate would control SCOTUS appointments, could support de-funding, basically roll back all the onerous moves of recent years, as well as pass new legislation to get the executive in line.

restoring balance of power is at least equally as important as getting a less-awful POTUS. Because at the end of the day, even with one of these two in the OO, if the Senate remains deadlocked, nothing will get done. Period. Nothing. Other than making decisions as CinC, mending fences with allies, and resuming enforcement of laws on the books, the POTUS would be hogtied. Those are big plusses to be sure, but you won't see dramatic healthcare changes, or campaign finance reform, or any progressive-agenda initiatives get off square one.

[mikekohr]

5. Great Post!

The next president will probably appoint 2 new Supreme Court Judges. And nothing gets done in the Senate without the minority in fear of their political lives or stuck with 40 votes or less.

With our 49/49/2 "majority," Republicans have blocked 78% of bills in the Senate either through procedural moves or by filibusters.

The fact that we have lost 7 of the last 10 presidential elections has had consequences all the way down the ticket. All the more reason that this presidential primary be conducted in a manner that does not cripple us in the fall.

mike kohr

[frogcycle]

8. funny how staying awake in civics class comes back to haunt you

all too many think we live in a dictatorship, a kingdom, or a Survivor or American Idol episode

[SoCalDem]

2. If HRC is the candidate, I don't think so

the supporters of BHO may not "transfer" to her in the fall..ans might stay home..

Low turnout means people down-ticket do not get votes they need to beat their republican opponents..

It's the result of a turned off, pissed off electorate..especially for the new ones who were getting into this for the first time..

Dashed hopes die..and when there is no enthusiasm, people stay home..

The new people and huge turnouts will go away...as will the ever-dependable black vote that the dems have counted on ...forever..

After Bobby was killed in "68, many people just did not even bother to vote in the fall..No one "wanted" the guy they stuck us with..

[frogcycle]

7. unfortunately

that may be true.

OTOH, a LOT of the supporters of BHO are in heavily-republican areas anyway. Despite all protestations to the contrary, his wins in the red states do not predict dem wins for POTUS, Senate, Representaive, or dogcatcher in those areas. And in many dem areas where he has trounced HRC, if his "surge" of new voters is subtracted, the region would still go dem.

So while the trend you describe may happen, its impact is not a given, and its threat sounds a lot like fearmongering. Or blackmail.

[SoCalDem]

11. not fearmongering or blackmail.. just a possibility

and in some cases, a probability..

MANY people see her and remember the angst of their term..and don't want to go back..and many people cringe at the bush-bush-bush-clinton-clinton-bush-bush-clinton possibility....for them, even a McCain presidency at least breaks that chain..

and if the soooopers make the choice, after millions of people voted, they WILL feel cheated if HRC is not ahead in delegates.. .. we DO vote by delegates..not the popular vote, remember (see Gore '00)..and we have all been told.. it;s all about the delegates..(and most people see "the delegates" as the delegates awared in the primaries/caucuses...not the soooopers)

For many people, a hopeful , positive person , who is well-liked is JUST what we need...NOT a throwback to times past, and one with very high negatives, and who has divided, instead of added to the party

[9119495]

3. I think Blanco's seat in LA is gone...

so we do have one seat that is vulnerable.

Still, I see us gaining something like 5. Not enough to prevent a filibuster, but enough to tell Joe Lieberman to go fuck himself...and that is good enough for me. Make him chair of the counting chairs committee.

[mikekohr]

6. Blanco is not, was not a Senator

Kathleen Blanco was the former governor in LA. She choose not to run for re-election. Bobby Jindahl, a Republican, won that race.

You are thinking of Mary Landreiu. Her Senate seat is considered to be our weakest link but she is at this point still considered the favorite in the race in articles I have read. She is a capable Senator and a formidable candidate. I believe she will hold onto her seat.

mike kohr

[SoCalDem]

12. I think you meant Landrieu n/t

[saltpoint]

4. 60 sounds good to me. 70 sounds even better. Let's be hard-nosed and

realistic andl push for the maximum gain in both chambers.

The bluer the better.

[stop the bleeding]

9. NYT article and link to LBN here

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/us/politics/07senate.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3213770&mesg_id=3213770

[Eric J in MN]

10. Maybe via the 2010 election. Not via the 2008 election.

A gain of 6 seats, from 51 to 57, is optimistic for 2008.

[hedgehog]

13. Who has the coat tails to make this come true? Be honest. nt

[frogcycle]

15. neither of the current ones

oh, it might happen along with their victory, but it won't be their coattails doing it. Of the two, BHO would probably boost more, by bringing out his "new voter" group, but whether that would be significant enough in key areas is another question.

He might bring out the opposition just as much in those areas.

[mikekohr]

17. Our Strongest General Election Candidate Is BHO

First let me say that both of our candidates for President are qualified and prepared to take office on day one. Anyone that says otherwise is too personally involved to give an objective reply to this question. The differences that exist between our candidates on policy are small,

The real questions are leadership judgment, character, and the ability to reach across the partisan divide that separates us as a people. Obama like Clinton, has the first three qualities. But it is the last in which Senator Obama outshines Senator Clinton, in my view. I live in a county that has been dominated by the Republican Party since the 1850's. Senator Obama is attracting support among people here that have never shown desire to support a Democrat.

We will make big gains in the Senate and in the House this fall. But like it or not, to win the White House, and to lift the entire ticket even higher will require the ability to attract support among independents, moderates, and to be able to peel away that thin sliver of reasonable Republicans. Barack has demonstrated that ability, and with that ability comes possibility, hope and ultimately real, substantive change,


mike kohr

[rock]

14. Recommended! n/t

Nice post

[BlueIdaho]

16. Not With Hillary

Pantsuits have no coat tails. History should teach us that loosing seats in congress is a Clinton family tradition.