How are the last 10 states going to vote?

[XemaSab]

Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Mississippi, and North Carolina I'm going to guess will vote for Obama.

This leaves Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania for possible Clinton wins.

Thoughts? Reflections? Hopes? Wishes? Dreams? :shrug:

[tekisui]

1. Hillary's only possible wins left are: PA, IN and PR.

I think Obama could pull off an upset in PA. He has the money and the time. And after WY, MS and more SuperD's the momentum. IN is in play, and Hillary will win PR.

[nonconformist]

12. Hillary will win big in Kentucky. nt

[tekisui]

14. I've not heard much about KY.

I'll have to take your word for it that she will win. I doubt it will be big. She doesn't really win "big". Only in her home state has she gotten above 57%.

[nonconformist]

18. She'll take KY at least as big as she did Ohio

The demographics are similar, especially in the areas where she won Ohio huge. Plus, KY *loved* Bill Clinton.

[Zynx]

19. KY outside of Louisville will be very fertile territory for her.

It's demographically more in her favor than even Ohio.

[featherman]

32. Clinton favored in KY and WV

[DemVet]

2. Thoughts? Yeah...the convention should be interesting. n/t

[tekisui]

3. And over after one vote.

[Quixote1818]

4. Indiana shares a long border with Illinois and could go for Obama

nt

[Benhurst]

6. Possibly, but it's not nearly as progressive a state as Illinois.

And historically it was highly infested with the KKK.

[XemaSab]

8. Hillary had some support in the rural south of IL

and she won virtually all of the rural counties in Ohio. That makes me think Indiana could go for her.

[Zynx]

20. Indiana is a fundamentally different state altogether.

Very very different.

[democrattotheend]

25. I saw a poll that showed him winning there

A couple weeks ago. But it surprised me. Indiana is like Ohio but with a smaller black population. It seems like it should be a terrible state for him.

[Hawkowl]

29. Yes but it is a primary

Blacks make up a sizable percentage of the democratic party in Indiana. Overall Indiana is a pretty hardcore rethuglican state. The exceptions being in Northwest Indiana which has been hardcore Dem and a mixed area around Indianapolis. The Ku Klux Klan actually took over the state government in the 1920's. I think most of the people most opposed to Obama are registered republicans. So I predict a sizable victory for Obama.

[Quixote1818]

5. If you are right then Obama wins the nomination easily. nt

[LWolf]

7. As a voter in one of those last states,

I will vote for Gravel, write in a better Democrat, or, if it looks close, vote for whichever of the current two is behind, hoping to help make it a draw at the convention.

[tekisui]

9. It will be nearly impossible for a draw. With 2 candidates, one will

get the majority after one vote. Unless SuperD's sit the vote out or vote Uncommitted, which I don't see happening.

[LWolf]

17. I know.

That makes it nearly impossible to get a candidate I can support in November. "Nearly" isn't "completely," though, so I'll hold out until any possibility of a better outcome is gone.

[tekisui]

10. Further. Obama will win his with big margins.

Hillary will win by squeaks. She has only breached 57% in her home state.

[JackRiddler]

11. Last 13 votes...

Puerto Rico also.

And the possibility of Michigan and Florida replays. If these happen and are scheduled for the same day as PA, you get Final Tuesday. Or Ultimate Inconclusion.

[XemaSab]

13. I doubt they'd be able to get those up and running in the next 5 weeks

April's not that far away.

May sounds plausible, though. :shrug:

[tekisui]

15. They are saying June, if it happens.

[Tropics_Dude83]

16. PR is not a sure bet for HRC at all

The governor has endorsed Obama. PR isn't like the Hispanic population in the continental U.S. Don't write it off.

[Zynx]

21. North Carolina will be close as some recent polls show it tightening.

[dansolo]

22. I only have PA, KY, and WV for Clinton

If the remaining primaries and caucuses split their delegates 55%-45%, with Hillary getting PA, KY, and WV, that would net Obama +15 in the pledged delegates. And I think that that split is fairly conservative in favor of Hillary, i.e. I think that Obama's wins will be by larger margins.

[THUNDER HANDS]

23. she wins Kentucky, West Virginia - Penn is a tossup

all the others go to Obama.

[democrattotheend]

24. Oregon should be a toss-up

Obama won the Washington caucuses overwhelmingly, but won the primary narrowly. Oregon is a primary.

To be fair, a lot of Obama caucus-goers in Washington probably did not vote in the primary because they knew it did not matter. I believe Clinton's campaign had people calling Washington to encourage participation in the primary, probably in hopes of showing that caucuses were unrepresentative.

[XemaSab]

27. I feel confident in saying Oregon's a slam-dunk for Obama

Not only did Washington with its similar demographics go overwhelmingly for Obama, but the hinterlands of Nevada and Idaho indicate that he may have surprising strength out in Eastern Oregon, PLUS some of the "Baja Oregon" areas of California such as Siskiyou, Lassen, Mendocino, and Humboldt Counties in California went for Obama as well.

If you look at the county maps, you can see swathes of support for both of the candidates, and Oregon should be Obama country. :D

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/demmap/

(And even on the California map, note well that Hillary didn't break 50% in Shasta, Del Norte, or Modoc. Modoc, surprisingly, went 12% for Edwards, while Shasta county went 11%.)

[featherman]

33. Oregon will be a strong state for Obama

I have no doubt about Oregon whatsoever... take it from a long time (until 2002) resident and party activist (precinct committee captain)

[fujiyama]

26. Apparently there was an Obama state by state win/loss projection

that was leaked to the press and it showed the same thing.

Obama will do well in Montana, Oregon, SD, MS, and NC (which I think will be closer now though).

He will likely lose Indiana, WV, and PA.

I think PR leans toward Hillary as well.

Either way, at this point no one has a chance to win 2025 pledged elected delegates so this thing goes to the convention with Obama likely having the lead in delegates. Depending on what happens with MI and FL, Hillary could take the lead...But I have no idea when those two states would vote...

[mckeown1128]

28. Here is how I have it....

Obama:Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Mississippi, and North Carolina

Hillary: Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania

Toss Ups: Indiana, Guam, and PR.

[IndianaGreen]

30. Indiana had a lot of John Edwards supporters

The empty suit that is Evan Bayh is a Clintonite and he got many of the party hacks to back Hillary in the expectation that he would end up as her running mate.

Edwards' organizing efforts were led by Anne DeLaney, a highly respected former prosecutor and child advocate.

I think Indiana is in play for Obama if he takes the time and effort to campaign here.

Come on down, Barack!

:-)

[backtothefuture1999]

31. According to intrade - Hillary will take Kentucky

see link: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=586723&z=1205005368140

[XemaSab]

34. I get a wierd feeling that the "coal belt"

will go strongly for her, but I can't really put my finger on it. :shrug: