Oregon

[loveangelc]

why is Obama favored in Oregon? The last poll shows it almost tied with Obama a little bit ahead, and one from january had hillary leading. so why is obama favored in Oregon? Isn't it also a closed primary?

[ellisonz]

1. Portland and Eugene vs. the rest of the state.

[Cha]

3. Right..my daughter lives in Portland with her fam..

and went to school in Eugene.

[Flabbergasted]

4. Right. nt

[hayu_lol]

15. The very liberal part of Oregon...

is much of the I-5 corridor from the southern border of the state to Portland. Most of the rest of the state is dominated by the 'right.' Fortunately, the bulk of the voters live along the I-5 corridor.

Rural areas of the state are predominently RW'ers.

Our big advantage is that Oregon 'votes by mail.' Every voter in the state has the opportunity to study the ballot, the candidates, the issues for a week or more before sitting down at the kitchen table and marking their ballots.

Voter turnout here in Oregon, as a result of the 'by mail only' system is usually much larger than in other states. We also eliminate the so-called feeding frenzy by the media over exit polling.

As a liberal in Klamath County, a strong bastion of the right wing, my vote is added to the other liberal voices across the state. That is what has kept Oregon a fairly consistant blue state.

The elimination of polling precincts has also eliminated most of the voting problems that face voters from most of the other states. Paper and pencil ballots eliminate the problems of machine voting. There are no lines to wait in, no malfunctions at a precinct, no press feeding frenzy, and there is the permanent record that is kept in a secure location should there be challenges.

Voting by Mail is a very civilized way to vote. When compared to the nonsensical caucuses, this is the way of the future.

Most of Oregon voters appreciate the benefits of voting by mail. The system is more valued by the left than by the right however for reasons that needn't be explained here. Political manipulation is also almost impossible.

[Flabbergasted]

19. Great Post

[XemaSab]

23. I posted below what I think will happen

But I don't think it's a simple left/right equation.

Obama won every single county in Washington, all the counties but one TINY county with 17 *voters* in Idaho, and 9 out of 11 counties north of Reno in Nevada.

I know that eastern Washington, Nevada, and Idaho aren't exactly like eastern Oregon politically, but it's interesting that he does well out in the very RED Great Basin.

I think Obama's going to PWN the eastern part of the state, and ironically, the I-5 corridor might be some of Hillary's strongest support. :shrug:

[Lefty-Taylor]

29. Hayu, as a proud Portlander, I thank you for an insightful, well-crafted post.

[XemaSab]

21. I don't think that's how it's going to shake out

Idaho and Washington went virtually 100% for Obama on a county basis (Hill won one county in ID, where the vote was 10 to 7 VOTES in her favor.)

Rural northern Nevada went for Obama, which is why he wound up getting more delegates.

Finally, "Jefferson State" in California went about 50-50 for Obama on a county basis, but on super Tuesday there was still a lot of Edwards support in Modoc, Del Norte, Shasta, and a few other counties.

I think Obama's going to do really well out in Eastern Oregon, as well as in the larger liberal cities and along parts of the coast. If I had to guess, I'd say there might be some Hillary strongholds in the Willamette Valley and other ag regions, and maybe a few coastal and suburban pockets. Then again, the Siskiyou basin went for Obama. :shrug:

It's really fascinating how Obama has the obvious urban support, but is also doing well in some unexpected hinterlands, especially in the Northwest and Intermountain states.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/demmap/index.html

[ellisonz]

32. I didn't say it won't be an Obama landslide.

Oregon will be a tough state for Hillary. Eastern Oregon is low pop. To do well she has to win the Portland burbs, a chunk of Eugene and the coast/more rural I-5 corridor. Hopefully, this all ends in PA though.

Just pulling it out of my ass but I would guess 65-35 just based on potentially very high turnout in urban Portland and usual turnout elsewhere.

[XemaSab]

33. It was 68-31 in Washington

:thumbsup:

[meow mix]

35. i bet he scores around 60..

these people are comparing oregon, to washington and cali.. haha. entirely different landscape.

[Cha]

2. When is Oregon's primary? I would think

when Oregon gets to know Obama and now the real hilary they would know just who to vote for..being the progressive state they are.

My daughter lives in Portland so I'll have to ask if they plan on voting in the primary.

[Flabbergasted]

5. May 22nd. edited May 20th

[Cha]

6. That should be verrrrry

Interestingk.

[Flabbergasted]

16. Certainly, and I intend to drag my wife to Obama's speech when he comes to town...

I'll go Hill's to if I can manage it.

This will be the first major political even I've ever been to. My wife is German and not a citizen but she'll be interested to see a little of how things work here.

[skooooo]

7. It's a caucus, isn't it??

Maybe I'm wrong?

[ellisonz]

8. Oregon is all vote by mail.

[movonne]

9. I live here in Or. and the Portland and Eugene areas are very liberal

and active...both are college areas..I think that Or. will go for Obama..

[TAWS]

10. Obama won Northern Califronia and Washington, so I think he has a good shot

[woolldog]

13. yup

look at the counties he won in california: alameda, sonoma, humbolt (a lot of stoners there), san francisco, and marin. These are the most liberal counties in CA.

[XemaSab]

24. You can add Trinity, Mendocino, Santa Cruz, and Santa Barbara to that list

:patriot:

[woolldog]

11. A lot of progressive liberals

[NewHampster]

12. Mail in

Where to Go to Vote

Because Oregon is a Vote by Mail state, you may vote in the comfort of your home.

* If you are a registered voter, a ballot will automatically be mailed to you for each election that you are eligible to vote in.

Ballot Mailing Days

* Each County Elections Office also has voting booths. The booths accommodate any voters who would prefer to vote at a polling place, as well as voters with special needs.

Assistance to Vote

Voters with disabilities can request assistance to vote their ballot by calling the local County Elections Office. Assistance can be provided in the voter’s home or place of their choice.

http://www.uhavavote.org/elect_q_a/wheretovote/where.html

[skooooo]

14. How many delegates?

[Flabbergasted]

17. 65

[skooooo]

30. it'd be nice if he could win there by a fair margin..

...and pick up another 15 or so net!

[grantcart]

18. Oregonians are known to be intelligent

[featherman]

20. Clinton is not particularly popular in the Northwest

The SUSA poll yesterday showed her losing to McCain in a GE matchup in both OR and WA while Obama wins both v. McCain. That's one factor.

The traditional, Catholic, white working class voter that has been such a strong demographic for her is not a major factor in OR

The Hispanic portion of the vote is not nearly what it is in the Southwest and SoCal

Oregon is not an heavily older population state like FL, OH and PA

On the other side:
There is no AA vote to speak of. And there is a strong feminist tradition in liberal centers like Portland and Eugene.

It's a long way off and the national dynamics may change dramatically but I'm looking at 55-60% Obama in this one.

[XemaSab]

26. Re: There is no AA vote to speak of.

Obama's been cleaning her clock in the whitest states in the country. Idaho, for example, where he won 80 to 20.

I'm not worried in the slightest about the lack of Black people in Oregon. :)

[woolldog]

22. I want to add this:

in states that aren't beholden to the democratic machine, where voters tend to be more "independent" and anti-establishment democrats, Obama does very well. That's my impression of what Oregon is like, only having visted there a few times.

[pdxmom]

27. The RW likes to call us "The People's Republic of Portland" and Bush, Sr.

dubbed Portland "Little Beirut". We have little tolerance for the RW agenda here and even less for warmongers.

We've also witnessed the Patriot Act firsthand, with the Brandon Mayfield case front and center.

Hillary may do well, but her Iraq vote may be her undoing. We are a very anti-war city.

[Beregond2]

28. OR

Yes, that's just what Oregon is like. I live just over the border in WA, but I have always felt more like an Oregonian. All our news comes from there, Portland is the nearest large city, and I have lived there at various times. There was a time when OR was a red state, but even then, they kept sending Wayne Morse to the Senate; one of the most liberal Senators in history. Now, the urban areas are reliably blue, and even the reddish areas tend to be pretty independent.

The blue collar workers in the Northwest have traditionally been employed in the lumber and paper industries, which have been devastated by globalization. Therefore, they have no great love of the Republican-lite of the Clintons. They supported them when there was no other option, but now? I don't think so. Obama will do just as well in OR as he did in WA.

[Bluenorthwest]

25. I have only been here about 4 years

Here for last GE, not for Primary. I love vote by mail!

[OutNow]

31. The Big "O"

Usually any "O" seen in Eugene is yellow or green and designates the U of "O".

But this year, there are many "O"s around town that represent Obama.

I've had Obama bumper stickers on my pickup for almost a year now.

Not too many Clinton stickers around here.

[meow mix]

34. sick of feds being oppressive. (assisted suicide, medical marijuana ect)

Obama is the only candidate who will be on their side, and they know this. Oregon has always been one of my most admired states.