My Prediction for the Rest of the Primaries: Updated to Include Michigan and Florida Projections

[MadBadger]

I looked at the Forbes delegate calculator and will show where I think it will be without adding superdelegates

MS: Obama wins 64-36, and 21-12 in delegates
PA: Clinton wins 53-47, and 84-74 in delegates
Guam: No matte what it will be split 2-2 in delegates
NC: Obama wins 58-42, and 67-48 in delegates (Gets endorsed by John Edwards)
IN: Clinton wins 53-47, and 38-34 in delegates
WV: Clinton wins 58-42, and 16-12 in delegates
OR: Obama wins 53-47, and 28-24 in delegates
KY: Clinton wins 59-41, and 30-21 in delegates
MT: Obama wins 67-33, and 11-5 in delegates
SD: Obama wins 64-36, and 10-5 in delegates
Puerto Rico: Obama wins 56-44, and 31-24 in delegates

If Michigan and Florida were included
MI: Obama wins 56-44, and 72-56 in Delegates
FL: Clinton wins 52-48 and 109-101 in delegates

That puts the total delegate count at: Obama 1891 Clinton 1757 without Michigan and florida and with Fl and MI: Obama 2064 Clinton 1922.

The rest will be without FL and Michigan

OUt of the 346 unpleged superdelegates, Obama would only need 134 of them to claim the nomination

I'm really unsure about Puerto Rico, but Obama got endorsed by their governor I believe, and I think if an endorsement would effect votes anywhere, it would be Puerto Rico.

Here is the Forbes Delegate Calculator for anybody interested.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[David Dunham]

1. What about the likely MI and FL do-overs?

[David__77]

2. Hmm... what makes them "likely?"

Both candidates have to agree - this has already been stated. I think the clock will run out before it's possible.

[Bullet1987]

4. I think what is likely to happen with Michigan and Florida

is their delegates will be split amoung Clinton and Obama. I don't think there will be a do-over.

[ORDem]

51. Good grief let's hope there is not a do-over. All we need is to drag this

crap on until July. :crazy:

Even if there are "do-overs" in MI and FL, they had damn well better be after P.R. votes.

:kick:

[thoughtcrime1984]

15. If they are re-done, Obama may get enough delegates to go over the top

Without counting the 2 states, the number of delegates needed to clinch nomination should be lowered proportionately.

[skipos]

3. Hil got 55% in MI and 50% in FL

and I assume you know what tends to happen to the numbers once Obama starts campaigning in a state.

I guess she would win FL and lose MI.

[Gore1FL]

25. I think it was closer to 60 in FL

but still the delegate swing isn't an avalanche. If the do get their delegates, they still probably won't get the whole pot, either.

even a lead of 79-80 represents about 10% of the total super delegates. ((796+80/2))/796 = a little over 55% of them that Clinton would need to win. That means she would need to win the super delegates by 60%-40$.

To put this in perspective,the current numbers of super delegates now committed are 210 for Obama to 232 for Clinton. She has 232/(210 + 232) =52.5%

Of the remaining 354 super delegates, she needs to make up 58. ((354+58)/2))/354 = a little over 72% of the remaining.

If the lead was 40, she would need ((354+18)/2)/354 = to the 52.5 pace she already has.

The lead is not going to be 40. It won't even be 80. it'll be closer to 100-175, probably in the 130 range. even with a 50 delegate pickup from the the nebulous MI and FL delegations, he still has an 80 lead.

Picking up almost 3/4 of the remaining super delegates seems a bit daunting, at best.

[MadBadger]

29. She beat Obama 50-33

[JVS]

34. 55% in MI is also against Kucinich and that mighty powerhouse Uncommitted.

[MadBadger]

5. I updated it to include possible Michigan and Florida primaries.

[Gore1FL]

28. You might have been a little optomistic in those contests

But even if she picks up 50 from both contests, her task will be to get almost 3/4 of the remaining super delegates.

[MadBadger]

30. I may be optomistic in Florida, but I dont think so in Michigan

Rasmussen has the race tied at 41 as of now. I just think Michigan is a great state for him and will look more like Wisconsin than Ohio.

[alteredstate]

6. Time's running out for do-overs.

And I doubt the Democratic party would be willing to change the date of the June convention.

[MadBadger]

7. 3 REC's for my personal punditry? Oh do i feel special.

[alteredstate]

8. Thanks!

I bookmarked your predictions.

[XemaSab]

9. Obama will do better than that in Oregon

I think Oregon is very, very friendly to him.

[MadBadger]

10. I thought about it at first, but then I remembered the actual results of the mail in WA primary

There he only won by about four points in the primary phase. I think that in a closed primary situation with mail in ballots, Obama wins there, just not by that much.

[here_is_to_hope]

23. Obama will smoke Hillary in Oregon, no doubt about it.

I know ZERO Clinton supporters, ZERO.
But Obama? Just going by the stickers (Oregonians wear their colors) bearing his name, its a lock.

[writes3000]

11. So wait!!!! This is a HUGE point you're making!!!

You're making the case the a re-do in FL and MI could actually get Obama to the 2025 he needs to win outright?????

Holy freaking crap!

I only wished I thought of it first.

And I'm damn sure the Obama camp is crunching the same numbers you are.

[MadBadger]

13. I believe the magic number increases with Michigan and Florida counting.

[writes3000]

17. No, I think you're wrong there. I think the magic number has always been 2025!

This is a huge strategic point.

Even if Obama losese forty delegates from your math, he still crosses the threshold.

This is huge, hnmnf.

Obama can bypass the SDs with the FL and MI re-votes.

[MadBadger]

18. Down thread somebody says the number becomes 2208

[lapfog_1]

16. With FL and MI he needs 2208 not 2025. - n/t

[writes3000]

20. Just read up on this. You're right. Thanks for clearing it up. n/t

[TheDoorbellRang]

44. The 2025 number is without FL and MI

As it stands now, there are 3253 PD's and 796 SD's = 4049 total
The 2025 goal is half of that 4049 plus .5
FL would add 185/25 and MI would add 128/28 for an additional 366 delegates, upping the overall total to 4415 and the new halfway + .5 goal to 2208.

Even with a do over in MI and FL, Clinton still needs 58% of the remaining pledged delegates to outpace Obama.

[grantcart]

12. I think your percentages are about right if the votes were today

but the delegates I think will be split more narrowly in all of the contests and that Obama will be slightly ahead of your forecast.

However I think that there will be a clear movement of superdelegates that will pick up speed in the next two weeks.

Richardson more or less committed to coming out and I think he was reflecting conversations that a lot of the senior folks were having.

[MadBadger]

14. If Obama ends up winning PA, I'll say right now, its all over.

But i think she will still hold on. I hope they redo Michigan because I think Obama wins there comfortably.

[grantcart]

37. Yes and they will fix up something for Florida - there are some rumblings

that Florida might be a lot closer for Obama than people think.

[writes3000]

39. I've heard that as well. Based on what, I wonder. n/t

[MadBadger]

40. What rumblings

Rasmussen's poll shows him down 16, but tied in Michigan.

[grantcart]

42. Just comments that I heard - pointing out that people tend to forget

how substantial the African American community is coming out. Also that there is a new more comprehensive Social Security proposal that was to be released that would be well received there.

[writes3000]

43. Oh yeah, the SS proposal is a huge selling point for Obama.

I was surprised to see the woman from Politico saying that Obama might take FL today on CNN. But she said MI may favor Hillary.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. I didn't know Forbes had this, interesting.

If I run my numbers, without superdelegates, Obama finishes with 1,915 delegates, Clinton 1,733 (182 down). Then you take the superdelegates and break them 50-50, which favors Clinton, and Obama wins the nomination!

[MadBadger]

21. One thing that is important to remember if MI and FL count is that she picks up a lot more SDs

[Drunken Irishman]

22. But so does Obama.

[MadBadger]

24. She has the establishment in both states though

thats why the argument has been framed so easily in her favor there.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. I know, but she wouldn't get enough SD's to really do much.

[MadBadger]

32. I agree on that.

[Quixote1818]

26. Obama could win Indiana because it borders Illinois and much of its population

is around the Chicago area.

[MadBadger]

27. I see Indiana and Kentucky going the way of Tennessee

[Drunken Irishman]

33. I would be surprised if Obama lost both by as much as he lost Tenn.

[MadBadger]

36. The demographics dont favor Obama. IN TN at least 18 percent were black

in KY only 8 percent is black.

[Drunken Irishman]

48. I still don't think he loses by more than 10 points.

[MadBadger]

49. Hey, he lost by 18 in RI, so you never know

[Drunken Irishman]

50. Well you never know, but I don't see it.

[JVS]

35. Lake county is big in this.

[MadBadger]

38. Describe this Lake County

I dont even know what state its in lol.

[JVS]

41. Chicago's southside spills eastward across the state line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_County,_Indiana#Demographics

[SoCalDem]

52. East Chicago, Hammond ,Gary IIRC

Not exactly her constituency

As of the census² of 2000, there were 484,564 people, 181,633 households, and 126,961 families residing in the county. The population density was 975 people per square mile (376/km²). There were 194,992 housing units at an average density of 392 per square mile (151/km²). The racial makeup of the county was 66.72% White, 25.33% Black or African American, 0.28% Native American, 0.82% Asian, 0.04% Pacific Islander, 4.96% from other races, and 1.85% from two or more races. 12.20% of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race. 12.2% were of German, 9.6% Polish and 7.1% Irish ancestry according to Census 2000.

According to 2005 Census estimates 58.6% of Lake County's population was non-Hispanic whites, 26.2% African-American, 13.7% Latino and 1.0% Asian.<3> In 2000 there were 181,633 households out of which 32.80% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 48.70% were married couples living together, 16.60% had a female householder with no husband present, and 30.10% were non-families. 25.80% of all households were made up of individuals and 9.60% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.64 and the average family size was 3.19.

In the county the population was spread out with 26.80% under the age of 18, 9.30% from 18 to 24, 28.30% from 25 to 44, 22.60% from 45 to 64, and 13.00% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age was 36 years. For every 100 females there were 92.90 males. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 89.00 males.

[Utopian Leftist]

45. Superdelegates

Does anyone know if data is collected somewhere that shows what states/areas the uncommitted superdelegates are in? Because I'm thinking that many of them might end up voting the way their constituents do. Which would mean that the state they are in might offer a clue as to which side they would end up on.

[PseudoIntellect]

46. I don't think Obama would do that well in MI/FL. You really think 4% spread in FL is attainable?

[MadBadger]

47. Heres what I know

Obama is tied in Michigan right now. And I think he can lose by 4 or 5 in Florida.