THE MATH - Friday, March 14 - CONDENSED VERSION (Still, Holy Crap!)

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Friday, March 14 – Superdelegate Statistics (HOLY CRAP!)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,661.0 of 3,227.0 – 82.5%

NOTE: Condensed Version. Sources and calculations at this link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5079171

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TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 14:
Hillary Clinton – 1,499.5 (525.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,622.5 (402.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 900.0

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PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 14:
Hillary Clinton – 1,250.5
Barack Obama – 1,410.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,816.5 (208.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,976.5 (48.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 14: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,090.0
Barack Obama – 1,107.0

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 14: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 160.5
Barack Obama – 303.5

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SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 249 (Source: AP 3/14/08)
Barack Obama – 212 (Source: AP 3/14/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 334

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 242 of 334, or 72.5% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 254 of 348, or 73.0% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 232 of 348, or 66.5% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 249 of 346, or 72.0% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 247 of 336, or 73.5% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 235 of 336, or 69.8% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 242 of 348, or 69.4% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 239 of 346, or 69.1% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 244 of 348, or 70.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 119 of 334, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 141 of 348, or 40.5% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 231 of 348, or 66.2% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 132 of 346, or 38.2% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 128 of 336, or 38.1% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 154 of 336, or 45.7% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 167 of 348, or 47.8% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 196 of 346, or 56.6% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 205 of 348, or 58.9% of remaining SDs

Going 50/50 here on out, in Senator Clinton’s best case scenario, she would still need two-thirds of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.

On the other hand, Senator Obama’s superdelegate needs cross the “over half” mark ONLY if the Michigan delegation is seated as is, from the January results, in a 50/50 scenario.

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 213 of 334, or 63.8% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 210 of 348, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 203 of 348, or 58.2% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 214 of 346, or 61.8% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 209 of 336, or 62.1% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 206 of 336, or 61.2% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 207 of 348, or 59.3% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 210 of 346, or 60.7% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 206 of 348, or 59.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 148 of 334, or 44.3% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 186 of 348, or 53.3% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 260 of 348, or 74.6% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 167 of 346, or 48.3% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 167 of 336, or 49.6% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 183 of 336, or 54.3% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 202 of 348, or 57.9% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 225 of 346, or 65.0% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 244 of 348, or 70.0% of remaining SDs

Giving Senator Clinton a 55/45 edge in pledged delegates from here on out will still require her campaign to pick up more than half of the remaining superdelegates IN EVERY SCENARIO.

The 55/45 disadvantage in pledged delegates from here on out for Senator Obama’s campaign would still put forth three scenarios where they would need less than half of the remaining superdelegates to clinch the nomination.

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POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 14:
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 12,903,848

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 14:
Barack Obama – 13,173,496
Hillary Clinton – 12,639,549

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 14:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302

With Florida only added, as of March 14:
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 13,774,834

With Michigan only added, as of March 14*:
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 13,232,157
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 14*:
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 14,103,143
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

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FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,661.0 of 3,540.0, or 75.2%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 64.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.9%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.9%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 54.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 45.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 61.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.5%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 60.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 57.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 42.4%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.3%, in all remaining contests

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THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIO

Looking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 59.1% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan. That’s considerably higher than the 54.2% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 59% in only one state during this primary season.

On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 40.9% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan. Even though that’s higher than the 35.9% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.

Clinton’s wins over 59%: (1)
Arkansas – 70%

Obama’s wins over 59%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Mississippi – 61%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%

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PENNSYLVANIA

There are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.

If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 73.5% in all the remaining contests, under status quo, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates.

If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 63.5% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates.

Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70.0%, would she catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. That's a very tall order, everything considered.

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MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

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Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.
(hi to elixir!)

[Greyskye]

1. And this is the CONDENSED version!

Great info, kudo's on the hard work! :thumbsup:

:kick: & R

[sellitman]

2. Logically it is over.

[grantcart]

4. this would be the cliff notes to the condensed version lol

[RiverStone]

3. kicking as always for the good work!

Thanks :hi:

[leftrightwingnut]

5. K & R

:kick: