Gut check on the primaries.

[saltpoint]

Dig down and make it frank and clear. Despite and apart from your preference in candidates, will the nomination contest run to the Denver convention?

[bicentennial_baby]

1. Yes, unfortunately...

[saltpoint]

2. The nominee may be decided at almost any point, it looks like.

That's just my take.

Before Pennsylvania, the night after Pennsylvania, the night after North Carolina and Indiana, or all the way to the convention floor in Denver.

If it goes all the way to the Front Range, it might be a good idea to hold onto your John Edwards and Al Gore campaign buttons.

Parents, faced with two children's sibling-spats, often take privileges away from both and grounds them, while the spat-free third child gets to go outside and play.

[Quixote1818]

3. Not quite. When the Press realizes Clinton can't catch up, there will be pressure

for her to drop out. She will win Pennsylvania and there will be some excitement but it won't last and then Obama will be in the driver seat.

[saltpoint]

5. Agree that Pennsylvania is going to go for Clinton, although as you indicate,

it may not be enough. The arithmetic favors Obama but doesn't clinch the nom prior to Denver for him either.

I think he'll do better in NC and Indiana.

[MojoMojoMojo]

4. Obama will be forced to drop out after he loses 30% of his support

[saltpoint]

6. At what point in the nomination contest do you see this occurrence?

I think we're looking at the same calendar and I don't see any such development.

[Texas Hill Country]

7. He had a 15% drop in the polls today....

The 4 day running avg shows him dropping 4%... that equates to a 15% post-pastor drop from 50% to 35%.... not good at all.

[Hepburn]

11. Link?

:eyes:

[tokenlib]

8. The SDs will choke and abort the party kamikaze run ASAP...

...Now I just hope they live up to the faith I place in them to do the right thing. I'm thinking after North Carolina...

[saltpoint]

9. History may be the ultimate superdelegate.

I voted 'Uncertain' because the two huge trends in the party seem to be 1) the surge for reform with fresh faces versus 90s stalwarts and 2) the long list of Dem heavy-weights who endorse the fresh face over the 90s stalwarts.

It's the outcome of that shoving match that would help us answer the poll question.

[LTR]

10. My prediction is Dean or some of the other party honchos will demand this be resolved

The DNC will not allow this to continue if it jeopardizes the White House and other elections. I believe there will be a lot of superdelagates switching their votes to achieve harmony long before Denver. For whichever candidate, who knows?

[Laelth]

12. That was tough.

But, in the end, I voted "yes" because I don't think the Big Dawg can let go. BC will try to do what it takes to win ... at all costs.

:(

-Laelth

[saltpoint]

13. It is a tough vote because the field is blurred.

Agree.

Not letting go might be the deciding factor. We'll have to see what good Dr. Dean has to offer.