Why some of Dean's supporters might not be "transferable".

[KaraokeKarlton]

According to a DU poll I started, it looks like almost half of Dean's supporters aren't actual Democrats, even on this site.

See this poll:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=50382&mesg_id=50382


The Democratic Party cannot expect those non-Democrats' votes to automatically go to whoever the nominee is if it isn't Howard Dean. This poll is very similar to what I see in my own area, except there are more Republicans and new voters than this poll shows so far.

The bottom line is this, about half of Dean's support comes from outside of the Democratic Party. Dean and his campaign staff understand this. Dean's supporters understand this. Those calling him "unelectable" and whatnot don't. That is why Dean says that his supporters might not vote for any other Democrat than him. Personally, I think it's a little foolhardy to risk losing those votes by trying to tear down the one candidate who guarantees those votes in a futile attempt to prop up another candidate that a lot of these needed votes won't likely go to.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Dean is creating many Dean Republicans

just like reagan creaed Reagan Democrats... the phenomena is
actually funny, in some ways and of interest to many of us

For the record I am a Dean fan, but ABB after the primaries...

[janx]

7. They have to go somewhere, right?

:shrug:

We certainly can't blame them. Some of the older ones had their party and culture hijacked.

Where are the fiscally conservative, social liberals supposed to go?

[mkultra]

2. I'm a deaner

and i am completely transferable


ABB!!!!

[sangha]

3. There's an old saying in politics

"You gotta dance with them that brung you"

If Deans gets elected because of the votes of conservatives, don't you think that would affect what Dean does as President, or do you assume that Dean only wants their vote once?

[janx]

11. It's not necessarily just conservatives (and I hate to use that

word in this case since it's been co-opted). It's all kinds of people. His base is still Dem, make no mistake.

This is a good sign, because it might help to bring the American people together again--unlike Chimpy's fearmongering attempt after 9/11.

[sangha]

22. True, but not what I said

The main point of my post is that *IF* Dean is elected by margin smaller than the conservative vote he gets, he will be indebted to them.

I don't understand why any DUer would be happy about that.

[ozone_man]

38. He will have a wide base.

His fiscal responsibility will attract libertarians, liberal Republicans. He will not need to change to satisfy them. They have no place to go, the alternative being all time king of deficit spending Bush.

Left wingers (like me), will be continually applying pressure for more progressive policies, environmental, education, health care, etc. He is a social liberal, but can only go as fast as is possible in the given political climate and within the constraints of the budget.

Dean will energize or create more than enough new voters that previously have been discouraged from voting to replace any conservatives that might jump ship down the road.

[DuctapeFatwa]

13. If he gets Diebold's vote, he doesn't really need anyone else's

even once. ;)

[Brian_Expat]

17. Well, you know how Ronnie Raygun swing FAR to the left. . .

. . . due to the Reagan Democrats. :eyes:

[sangha]

28. Stop rolling your eyes for a moment

and think about WHY those Dems voted for Reagan. I would argue that guns, abortion, welfare, and taxes had something to do with it, and that Reagan faithfully served those Reagan Democrats on those issues.

If Dean gets the votes of conservatives, then the question to ask (IMO) is WHY those conservatives are willing to vote for Dean.

[KaraokeKarlton]

32. Well his position on guns and balanced budgets would be a start

And everyone wants good schools, jobs and health care. Even though the press has mislabelled Dean as some ultra liberal, his record shows that he's very middle of the road on most things. As a swing voter myself, I have to say that I'm convinced that Dean will have a very strong appeal to other voters like me. I've been backing him from the start because I live in Vermont and have lived under his leadership. He's a great leader. He also has the ability to present things to people in a way that holds their attention and makes them really hungry to listen to him. I think he'll take a lot of votes away from Bush, especially because of the way he neutralizes the whole gun argument. That's a really big issue that usually turns would be Democratic voters to the GOP.

[shivaji]

45. Exactly why I am in the Dean Camp

because I am a social liberal but fiscal moderate/conservative.

[KaraokeKarlton]

30. Why do you assume that all Republicans are conservatives?

Isn't that kind of presumptuous? Many people who register as Republicans are actually very similar to Democrats but Dems lose them on one or two issues that really matter to them. Gun control is probably the biggest one. Disagreements about whether or not drugs should be legalized would be another big one.

Dean is going to do what he feels is right and in the best interest of all of America, period. He's much more concerned with doing what he truly believes is right than what he thinks people want him to do. Luckily it's only a very, very rare instance where he makes the wrong call.

[Walt Starr]

4. Loyal Democrat for more than two decades

and now totally anti-establishment.

I think everybody knows where I stand on this one.

[dd123]

41. That is me too.

Only voted for 1 non Dem in my 35 years but I am sick of the games both Dems and Repubs play with the lobbyists and the fat cats.

The scandals that I see, mutual funds, analysts, accounting firms, Energy Cos, corporate looting, etc. pretty much had their roots under Clinton's tenure.

Bush exacerbated the laxness, leading to rampant fraud.

This is what the establishment of both parties has led us to and that is why I am an anti-establishment Dean supporter.

Go Dean!

[newsguyatl]

5. at this point

i am NOT transferrable either. i can't tell you how i will feel IF dean loses the nomination...


but i don't think i'll have to worry about that though...


none of the others have come even CLOSE to exciting me... and i don't believe any of the others can beat bush...


i will tell ya this -- it'd be like pulling teeth for me to punch the ballot for an illegal and immoral war enabler... it'd be DAMN hard, and honestly, i don't think i can or WILL ever do it.

[billbuckhead]

6. Many longtime Dems won't vote for Dean+Dean polls bad vs Bush

He's the only announced Dem candidate I won't vote for if he's nominated. I'll never vote for an NRA candidate, let alone one who panders to the Confederate flag.
Furthermore, Dean has consistantly polled worse than major 2004Dems vs Bush, I guess all this alleged new supports evaporates when it faces Bush for some reason. I think half of it is his gun nut supporters going home to Bush where they can get the real thing.

[KaraokeKarlton]

33. I really don't get why you call him an "NRA" candidate

Dean doesn't want to take away what's already in place. He just doesn't think anymore federal gun control is necessary but wants to let states have the option to add more as they see fit. Gun control doesn't prevent criminals from getting guns anyhow, in part because the focus isn't in the right area. If more of an effort was made to enforce the laws in place it might make a difference, and Dean does favor doing that as well as making sure instacheck covers gun shows.

As for the polling against Bush, a new one just came out that shows Dean only 5 points behind Bush, and doing better against him than all the others. There's a thread about it somewhere on here.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

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[Bombtrack]

10. and it's doubtful Dean even has that many supporters

150K solid supporters is a number I'd believe. Which is a tenth of what Dean DECIDED to claim

[ryharrin]

15. He's gotten donations from almost 150,000 this quarter alone.

I believe the number is something like 250,000 altogether. If you think that every single Dean supporter out there has donated to Dean, well then I'd say he'll have a really easy time beating bush with the huge amount of donations he'll inspire after he wins the nomination.
on edit: when the hell did he ever claim he had 1.5 million supporters? I'd like a link for that.

[Bombtrack]

29. during his 'nominate me or else' speil he said he had a million and a half

supporters

and about his contributors, first of all, many contributors also donate to other democrats. And many contributors are republicans hoping he'll get the nomination to increase the chance of a Bush victory. You can disagree with those republicans political strategy, but they certainly shouldn't be counted as Dean supporters.

[mouse7]

19. Oh.. you know best... you're smart than all of us

I really dislike pronouncements like this. It's like the Kerry supporters on the Dean blog saying all the comments on the Dean blog are generated by bots. Makes as much sense, too.

[windansea]

12. 500k ??

webhits??

[mouse7]

21. Speaking of which... n/t

[J B]

14. You know what posts like these remind me of?

I/P threads.

And I hoped something had been learned from the crap before midterms on this forum.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

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[newsguyatl]

16. you should get out more then...

that's quite ironic, because more than 3 quarters of the dean supporters i've met are over 30...

i came from a very poor, single parent household, where my mother was at one time on welfare... i'd seen poverty in my childhood... and whaddya know? i support the good doctor, too...


so there goes THAT argument.

[Bombtrack]

20. and are you "non-transferable?"

you wouldn't vote for Clark or Kerry or Edwards ?

[mouse7]

24. Clark and Edwards, no prob

Thank Gawd Kerry is in freefall so I'll never have to make that horrible decision.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. Add me

Grew in a well to do family, but, married into the service... we make do... but we are far from rich

[billbuckhead]

27. Dean has allowed Rove to use the IWR as the ultimate wedge issue

If Dean wouldn't have crucified the Dems who voted for the IWR, we would be far more united as a force against Bush. Some good doctor.

[Democrats unite]

18. As I have stated before Dean will not get the Nomination

And the nontransferable votes you can take with you, I don't care anymore the majority of you will end up green anyway and thanks to the green Party we Lost Florida in 2000 (which you know what that caused) Democrats are going to support a Democrat this year, no matter who it is and anybody that is NBD can go to...

[KaraokeKarlton]

34. Well, I'm not a Green, I'm an Independent

The Dean supporters who are registered Democrats will undoubtedly vote for whoever the nominee is. At the same time, no one can realistically expect non-Democrats to vote for Democrats unless they like and want to vote for the nominee. They just aren't loyal to the party, so it's a whole different ball game with those particular Dean supporters.

[floridaguy]

39. Polarization will kill Democrats chance in November

When Dean suggested his internet supporters might stay home, if he didn't win, and at the same time told the leaders of the Democratic Party what they should and shouldn't do, he highlighted his ability to polarize the Democratic party.

It will take a united Democratic party to beat Bush,and it will take a candidate like Clark who appeals to the swing voters to win.

Those of you who think we could beat Bush with Mr. Magoo you need a little dose of reality. Even if we don't like it, GWB is still supported by a whole lot of misguided Americans.

Therefore, it will take a unified, not polarized, Democratic party to win the general election. For those who seem more concerned with winning the primary, you need to re-read the rules of the game, where it says purpose of the game: Beat George Bush.

[KaraokeKarlton]

42. I don't think Clark has a wide enough appeal to win

and he's not proven. Frankly, there's really no evidence whatsoever that he can get swing votes. I've hear many quite left liberals and Greens say they absolutely won't vote for Clark if he's the nominee and will go third party. Any right leaning swing voters he can pull in will be negated by the left swing voters/Green he'll lose. Dean has a 20 year proven record of attracting those swing votes, which is why I'm much, much more confident in Dean's ability to do it.

[angee_is_mad]

25. Is Dean republican-like?

The new people that he's attracted, would they vote republican or not vote at all? The only way they could hurt any other candidate is if they vote republican and if they vote republican Dean must not be as progressive as he portray.

If they never voted before and elect not to vote, it would be a crime shame, but we might still be able to pull it out. If Gore was able to do it any of the other 8 sure as heck would be able to. Especially if Nader stays out.

[KaraokeKarlton]

36. Well, people misunderstand an awful lot about Dean

It's really hard to say how those non-Democrat Dean supporters will vote, or if they will, if Dean isn't the nominee. The Greens probably won't vote for anyone who voted for IWR and a lot of them don't like Clark at all. The moderate Republicans aren't going to vote for anyone who mentions gun control. Dean is really hard to fit into any neat little political box and there's enough about him that almost everyone can appreciate enough to vote for him and feel alright about it, if they aren't in full support of him. The only ones who probably won't vote for him would be the far, far left and far, far right...esentially the most radical on both sides of the politcal fence. He always did very, very well with a broad base of Vermont voters and sometimes got close to half of the Republican votes along with most of the Democratic votes. Some of the Dem votes went to third parties, but most of those people would have voted for him if it was going to be really close. Dean was such a great governor that it was always a given he would win.

[Fleshdancer]

26. Interesting poll

At this point, Dean is not just my chosen candidate, he's an investment. I have never given this much money to a candidate before.

However, I honestly believe with all my heart that in order to be a true patriot, I must do whatever I can to get Bush out of my White House. I also believe that if Dean somehow loses the primary, he would be standing next to me fighting for the Democratic nominee.

This party will need the help and support from all the candidates and their campaign if we are to win in 2004. We need Kucinich and his wonderful supporters to solidify our base. We need Lieberman and his supporters to bring in the moderates. We need everyone in between to reach the minority communities, the women, the unions, etc.

If Dean loses the primary then all I ask from whoever wins is that they have a plan in place to guide our grassroots. You better be smart enough to ask Dean to campaign for you, you better be smart enough to ask Trippi to consult, and you better be smart enough to make sure Matt Gross and Zephyr Teachout take control of the internet team.

[KaraokeKarlton]

47. Dean will support whoever the nominee is

And I don't think any other campaign would be able to organize, coordinate and inspire Dean's supporters like his campaign does. Dean puts the power in our hands, and no other camppaign places that kind of faith in their supporters.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

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[kodi]

35. increasingly, i like dean a lot more than many of his supporters

howard dean is a strong democrat, even if a lot of his supporters act like naderites.

[KaraokeKarlton]

37. Well, if you look at the poll it should help understand that

although I have to say I think you're exaggerating a bit. Dean has already built some very solid support from voters who don't typically vote for the Democratic candidate. It's great that he has been able to get that support because the party has been trying (unsuccessfully, I might add) for a very long time. That phenomenon is probably the single most overlooked tidbit of information about Dean's campaign. As a Dean supporter it gets really frustrating to hear many posters on here discuss who will be able to attract those swing voters when Dean has already done it. It's not something that one can see unless they are actually active in the campaign, meetups and online communities. Once you're close enough to see it, you lose all doubts about his electability. As long as the Democrats unite behind Dean, he really can't lose.

[NashVegas]

40. Speaking as Someone Who Wrote-In for Jerry Brown in '92

There is some truth to the statement.

My main concern is for my country, not the Democratic Party. The party has shown its main concern is for itself. If Dean does not get the nom and IF my vote doesn't transfer (one is not conditional on the other), it will be because the Dem party nominates someone who I don't believe is any better for the country than Bush*. There are a few Dem candidates who I wouldn't have trouble pulling the lever for, and a couple I would stay home over, and one that could drive me to vote for Bush, if only to make the Eagle scream for real change.

PS - I'm registered independent.

[KaraokeKarlton]

43. Thanks for your input

I think it's really important for Democrats to understand that Dean has pulled in a lot of non-Democrat voters and that these are the voters that might not be willing to vote for another nominee. I udnerstand the frustration many have felt over the Nobody But Dean comments, but they were likely thinking Democrats were saying that. If they realize that it's Independents, Greens and even Republicans who might not transfer it might unruffle some of those ruffled feathers.

[mzmolly]

44. Right KK

Thanks for posting. Additionally, Dean is bringing new voters into the process. Many of which are not accounted for in the polls.

[KaraokeKarlton]

46. Yes, there are a lot of new voters he's attracted

I find it pretty bizarre that some would snub all that Dean is doing for the Democratic Party. With all the people he's attracting there won't be any need to worry about "appearing more to the right" to get votes because the Democrats will be a stronger party. :shrug: