diplomats
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Mon May-10-04 04:51 PM
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That CNN poll of likely voters only sampled 575 people! |
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I just saw that on http://www.pollingrerport.comThat's a small number. No wonder the margin of error is 5 percent. :eyes:
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ALago1
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Mon May-10-04 04:53 PM
Response to Original message |
1. actually that's a pretty decent number |
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Statistic generalization of a general population is fairly accurate at a truly random sample of 100 or so people.
So, if this is sample is random, 575 is more than enough
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Nederland
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Mon May-10-04 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
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A sample size of 100 would yield a margin of error of about 12.8% with a 99% confidence level. At least I think that's a pretty big MOE...
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Zynx
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Mon May-10-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
7. For a potential voting population of 100,000,000? |
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What school of statistics did you go to?
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ALago1
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Mon May-10-04 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
8. You missed the key to my post |
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If the 100 people sampled were truly randomly selected (which I'm not sure of b/c I didn't look into the methodology of CNN's polling), 575 is not a bad number at all...
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whistle
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Mon May-10-04 05:17 PM
Response to Original message |
2. It seems that the poll sample size was done on the cheap... |
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Edited on Mon May-10-04 05:17 PM by whistle
...the better number would be 1,100 or higher sample yielding results of +/- 3.0%. I also heard them announce that the survey showed approval to be split right down party lines...75% of republicans approve of the job Bush is doing while 75% of democrats disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president. Among independents the number has slipped just over 50% disapproving of Bush's job. So, if democrats can maximize turnout on November 2, Kerry wins it!
I'd really like to see those poll samples expanded because I think the margin of error is far too large for making such claims. Hey they could stick the poll on their web-site and also ask party.
:kick:
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tritsofme
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Mon May-10-04 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
3. I think the total sample was around 1000 |
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but only 575 of those 1000 could be identified as likely voters.
If it is the case that we would have somewhere around 57% voter turnout, that would be good for us.
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flpoljunkie
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Mon May-10-04 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
5. Schneider also said that Kerry is ahead by 6% with registered voters... |
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We need to register more voters and get out the vote in November.
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Mattforclark
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Mon May-10-04 05:38 PM
Response to Original message |
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Cheap, Cheap, Cheap.
575? For a national poll? That they are going to hurl around the airwaves for an extended period of time?
The media is so so so (expletive) irresponsible.
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DU
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Wed May 08th 2024, 08:52 PM
Response to Original message |