The math.

[BzaDem]

The winner of 2 of FL, PA, and OH will win the general election.

Obama supporters keep saying how we can still lose two of the three and win Virginia, Colorado, etc (one even said Idaho!) and therefore win the election. I'm not going to say we absolutely can't win any, but it is unlikely he will win solidly red states. But even if he can win in one, it is very unlikely he can win several of them, which he will need to offset FL, PA, or OH. This isn't because Obama is a bad campaigner or has a bad message -- this is purely due to demographics and math.

So the question is, how can he win two of FL, PA, OH? He's losing in all 3 right now in an average of polls (electoral-vote.com). I don't think GE polls have much weight this early out. But the demographics in these states really don't favor him. Florida is senior country, and PA and OH have many working-class, Reagan democrats who have shown that they are not wildly enthusiastic about Obama.

I'm not saying it is completely impossible for Obama to win 2 out of the 3, but I think a discussion is in order. Will Obama supporters be willing to have a rational discussion about the math, even if it doesn't necessarily favor him? Or is "the math" only relevant when it helps Obama?

[Texas Hill Country]

1. and he has pissed FL off bigtime, so he would have to win two of two.

very tough

[Nederland]

2. The electability meme again?

We were told this crap in 2004, and how did that work out then?

[SoFlaJet]

4. Neder....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5231994&mesg_id=5232025

[BzaDem]

10. HAHA -- electability is now a "meme."

[TheWraith]

3. So your position is that ALL Hillary supporters aren't going to vote for the Democrat?

I don't believe that's true for a second.

If you want to talk about unfavorable math, what does Hillary's campaign look like in November, since she would have to write off both young people and the black vote?

[leftofcool]

I know lots of young people voting for Hillary and many Black as well

[BzaDem]

8. When did I say or even imply that?

Obviously most Hillary supporters will support Obama. But when swing states always have margins of 2-5 percent, the difference between 75% of Hillary supporters voting for Obama and 90% is a big difference.

[dkf]

5. Just wait until we start talking about the economy.

No clue McCain will scare people away big time.

Especially if someone notes what an economic disaster it would be to attack Iran.

Sometimes bigotry is simply too expensive...

[harun]

6. If the discussion switches to issues and away from race baiting, Obama

wins easy.

[dkf]

7. Exactly.

[BzaDem]

9. I really wish I could believe that.

But he has been doing very badly in the polls in those states well before Wright became an issue. He lost Ohio and TX before Wright became an issue. He has alienated *some* (not all) Reagan democrats well before Wright became an issue.

[harun]

11. Obama won the most delegates in TX

Wright isn't an issue, it is MSM nonsense.

[LisaL]

12. I don't think he has much of a chance winning

2 out of 3. I am not sure he could win 1 out of 3. But DUbamas keep talking about him winning in a landslide. I wish they explained to me as to how he is going to do that.

[scheming daemons]

13. Winning in primary has NO correlation to winning in GE.....

Bill Clinton won Maryland in the 1992 GE.... but lost it in the primary.


Being the most popular Dem among Dems in a state has nothing to do with how a candidate will do against a GOPher in the same state.

[LisaL]

14. And what polls show him ahead of McCain in OH, FL or PA?