Help me understand a mantra I've been hearing re: primary victories

[Orrex]

Again and again I've heard that Clinton's camp is arguing that she should be the nominee because she's won more of the large states that would be a deciding factor in November's GE. I haven't heard Clinton herself making such a statement, however, and I admit that it's mostly come from the media echo-chamber.

But still... WTF?

Regardless of which Dem I vote for in the primary, I'd cut my own head off before I'd vote Republican in the GE, so how the hell can they presume to predict anything based on which Dem wins my state?

It strikes me as a classic false dichotomy: Either such-and-such Democratic candidate wins the state's primary, or the Republican candidate wins the state in November.

How is this anything but nonsensical?

[scheming daemons]

1. It *IS* nonsensical..... however, it is all the Clinton supporters have at this point....

Rational arguments are immaterial to them... because all the rational arguments point to Obama.


So that leaves them with only the irrational arguments.

[Mooney]

2. It's total horseshit.

There's nothing to understand.

[K Gardner]

3. Yes. The GOALPOST is now "states with electoral college votes".. and there is

even a graphic map up on MSNBC and every surrogate is being asked to comment on it. I feel like I'm in an Orweillian timewarp.

[Orrex]

11. Obama should just give it up already

:sarcasm:

[Texas Hill Country]

15. she is WAAAAAAAY ahead in total electoral votes.

[VolcanoJen]

4. Well, it's about as nonsensical as it gets.

The Clintons fail to apply the Dukakis Model to their own flawed strategy, for example.

In 1988, Dukakis defeated the likes of Paul Tsongas, Al Gore and Gary Hart on the way to victory. In part, he won the nomination by winning FL, MI, OH, TX and PA.

He went on to the general election and was beaten by Poppy Bush in each of these "large states."

[Orsino]

5. Primary victory conditions are shrinking faster than Iraq's.

But don't worry. Any other campaign in the same shape would be using the same framing.

[Orrex]

10. I agree with you

But I wonder if other campaigns would get away with it as readily or for so long before someone called bullshit.

[TwilightGardener]

6. The usual rules and guidelines that are used in the primary season

are being forever rearranged to allow Hillary an avenue to win. This wouldn't happen for any other candidate--just for her. She moves the goalposts, changes the rules, and the media plays along to avoid the appearance that it's pretty much over.

[Orrex]

9. I've been reluctant to put it in such stark terms

Just as I've been hesitant to decry the media's beloved "horserace," but I fear that you are correct.

Allowances have been made that simply, it seems to me, have no precedent, and no one is batting an eye.

[knixphan]

7. nonsensical is right, Orrex

[hisownpetard]

8. Imho, any state that has a vowel in its name is important. The others don't count.

[Mz Pip]

12. Some of these

big states will go Democratic no matter who the nominee is. New York and California are two of them. Just because Hillary got more of the popular vote in those states it does not mean that Obama will not get the majority of the popular vote in the General Election.

It's a bogus argument IMHO.

[Vinca]

13. This is probably the stupidest of the Clinton arguments.

Any state she won will most likely go to any Democrat in November, especially when you look at the total number of Democrats that came out vs. the total number of Republicans in their primaries.

[Alter Ego]

14. Except, probably, for Oklahoma

which would probably detach itself and fall through the center of the earth before it went blue in a Presidential election.

Sorry, Oklahoma DUers.