The Field's take on Pennsylvania Primary, Hillary wins by around 15 no matter what the polls say

[Herman Munster]

And this is far, far, far from a pro-Hillary blog if there ever was one.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=888

The press will try to make a race of it. There will surely be polls showing the race tightening, perhaps even suggesting that Obama could win it. But that’s just part of the predictable song-and-dance to sell newspapers and up ratings (and hit counts, for the political blogs and news sites that sell ads). The way the odd-numbered delegate districts break down, the demographics, the fact that it’s a closed primary (no Independent voters allowed), and its long border with the senator’s New York state make it a lead-pipe cinch for Clinton; to the extent that Obama supporters enter the “no, but yes, we can win it” narrative they’ll be walking into a trap.

Clinton has now moved 250 staffers (about 13 for each of Pennsylvania’s 19 Congressional districts) into the Keystone state and is opening two dozen field offices. She has the support of Governor Ed Rendell and his considerable machine, not to mention a phalanx of mayors including Michael Nutter of Philadelphia. They’re carrying a straight flush and they’re betting everything on it. That makes it tempting for Obama fans to seek a knockout punch, but all their candidate really needs to do is survive to the next round – North Carolina, two weeks later – without having fallen into a rigged expectations game to clinch the nomination.

The new SurveyUSA poll (Clinton 55 percent, Obama 38) tells part of the story.

But a bigger part of the story was already told in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District. That’s the long, thin border district with West Virginia that The Field called the “Pennsyltucky” district. The Obama campaign outspent Clinton on TV and media advertising there, and Obama dedicated his final Ohio appearance in Athens, within that district (as well as sending rockers Arcade Fire to stoke up the youth vote on primary eve), but the Appalachian demographics were against him from the start: Clinton won there with 72.4 percent to just 27.5 for Obama.

That means that Pennsylvania’s “Pennsyltucky” districts with 4 delegates will go 3-1 for Clinton, while districts with 5 delegates will go - just as Ohio’s 6th CD went - 4-1 for Clinton. And in those regions she will rack up an insurmountable 13 delegate lead under any reasonable scenario… and the rest of the state ain’t beanbag either.

Even if Obama narrows the gap - as Ohio’s 18th CD went (Clinton 68.3 percent to 31.6 percent) – it would carry the exact same delegate split, perhaps minus one delegate.

The Field now offers its preliminary math on the entire state.

Pennsylvania (see map, above) offers six CDs with an even number of delegates – 5, 6, 10, 16, 17 and 19 – and thirteen more with an odd number of delegates (meaning, they can’t be fought to a delegate tie).

The Field – six weeks out – predicts the following outcomes (which will not change beyond a delegate or two if Clinton posts anywhere from 55 to 60 percent of the vote):

CD 1: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 2: Clinton 3, Obama 6 (+3 Obama)
CD 3: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 4: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 5: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
CD 6: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (+0)
CD 7: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 8: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 9: Clinton 2, Obama 1 (+1 Clinton)
CD 10: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
CD 11: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 12: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 13: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 14: Clinton 4, Obama 3 (+1 Clinton)
CD 15: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
CD 16: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 17: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 18: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 19: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)

[Pirate Smile]

1. We know.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. So?

Its nothing but a dog and pony show now. The nomination is sewn up, all this is window dressing for Hillary's ego.

[yardwork]

3. I think that everyone acknowledges that Hillary will win Pennsylvania.

It won't help her get the nomination. Obama has it already.

[AllentownJake]

4. Well we here in PA tend to differ

Lehigh Valley, Southeast could help Obama win
By G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young



March 25, 2008



David Plouffe, campaign manager for Barack Obama, recently called the Hillary Clinton campaign ''the prohibitive favorite'' in the April 22 Pennsylvania Primary. ''We'll try and get as many votes and delegates as we can,'' he said, ''but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania.''



Translation: The Obama campaign believes Pennsylvania belongs to Clinton, and they aren't going to seriously contest it. They may want to rethink that hasty conclusion. Doing so may determine the remaining course of the nomination battle.



Clinton's advantages in Pennsylvania are substantial. Many of the state's demographics (seniors, Catholics, working class, conservatives and ethnics) fit well into the coalition she has pasted together in earlier states. Moreover, Clinton has personal ties and family roots in the state that will reinforce her favorable political fundamentals.



Nevertheless, a strong case can be made for the scenario in which Obama wins the state outright or at least holds down her margins so that a nominal win for her will be perceived as a virtual loss.



Ironically Obama's keys to victory were first fashioned by electoral locksmith and current Gov. Ed Rendell, chief Clinton's chief surrogate in Pennsylvania, during his own 2002 primary fight for the governorship. That 2002 gubernatorial primary with then state Auditor General Bob Casey presents a blueprint for Obama to run against Clinton.



The 2002 gubernatorial slugfest pitted the son and heir apparent of the former Gov. Casey against the liberal, urban, upstart Rendell. Casey (Clinton) was the prohibitive favorite with deep roots in state politics, a political brand name second to none in Pennsylvania with widespread party establishment support. Rendell (Obama) was a politician of uncertain outline to a majority of voters, a brash upstart from a city many Pennsylvanians regarded as the citadel of sin and corruption.



Contrary to expectations, Rendell won impressively, beating Casey by some 150,000 votes. If Obama is going to beat Clinton in Pennsylvania, he must follow closely the three keys of the Rendell's 2002 electoral roadmap:



1. Massive concentration of effort: Pennsylvania has 67 counties, and Rendell managed to lose 57 of them. But the counties he won were the big counties, and he won them big. Key was the impressive percentages he recorded in Philadelphia and the four suburban counties. He rolled up 75 percent in Philadelphia and more than 80 percent in the suburbs. Rendell ended with 300,000 votes in the Southeast, twice his statewide margin.



2. Iron control of the swing vote: Rendell topped off Philly and the suburbs by winning the Lehigh Valley and much of the southcentral part of the state, capturing 60 percent or more in many of those counties. Rendell's regional dominance in eastern Pennsylvania was critical. Nine of the 10 counties he won were east of the Susquehanna.



3. Managed statewide turnout: Finally Rendell also was able to turnout a higher percentage of Democratic voters in the Southeast than voted in the Southwest. This was accomplished in part by increasing Democratic registration, including luring some Republicans across party lines, but mostly by exciting the voters in the Philadelphia TV market that overwhelmingly favored his candidacy.



Measured against Rendell's 2002 template, Obama's chances aren't unpromising. He is positioned to emulate Rendell to a greater extent than is generally recognized. Essentially he must win the same 10 counties Rendell won in 2002, while reducing Clinton's margins in her strongholds. Currently he leads in Philly and will likely win there decisively, making the suburbs a major battleground. The Democratic voters there largely mirror the upscale, affluent voters Obama has been attracting nationally: They are the most liberal in the state, strongly oppose the Iraq War, with a low regard for President Bush. For insurance Obama needs to join the Philadelphia suburbs to the two pivotal swing areas, the Lehigh Valley and Southcentral, where the Democrats are moderate to liberal and where he currently polls well against Sen. Clinton. Beyond this, managing turnout will be crucial for him.



Rendell in 2002 was able to turnout a higher percentage of Democratic voters in the Southeast than voted in the Southwest. This is central to any Obama victory. He must do the same. Here enthusiasm and Obama volunteers could make a big difference. The Obama campaign has already begun a major voter registration drive to add Democrats to the roles. The current Democratic pickup is 65,000, most of whom will be Obama voters.



The stakes in Pennsylvania are high for both candidates -- but perhaps highest for Obama. A Pennsylvania victory virtually assures him the nomination. It also would help inoculate him against an unfavorable resolution to the sputtering messes in Michigan and Florida. And a Pennsylvania victory gives the lie to the argument Obama can't win in an Electoral College battleground state.



Few people in 2002 thought Rendell could lose half the state and more than 85 percent of all counties, run against a political icon, and still win. Few think Obama can do it. But many otherwise astute politicians in 2002 ended up scrubbing abundant amounts of Pennsylvania egg off their faces when Rendell won. It could happen again.



Terry Madonna, Ph.D., is professor of public affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. Michael Young, Ph.D., is managing partner of Michael Young Strategic Research in Harrisburg.

http://www.mcall.com/news/opinion/anotherview/all-left_col-c.6324938mar25,0,6637683.story

[thunder rising]

6. My guess is that the campaign has an eye on PA and if there is a break in polls they will be on it!

[bowens43]

5. So? She still loses the nomination.

Face it, it's over and Hillary is finished. She has shown her self to be a self-serving, arrogant,lying , power hungry political hack.

[MadBadger]

7. Oooo, 14 day old analysis.

[DUyellow]

8. Obama will get more super delegates between now and PA then Clinton will get from this win.

edit for: "GOBAMA!!!!!"

[DerekJ]

9. An article written March12th, using old polls, and their best estimate is +26 pledged delegates.?!!!

You know what that means? It means that Obama will still be leading with something like 150 pledged delegates going into NC.

Are you that desperate that you have to go look for an old article to make you feel better.

Boy, I pity you.

Edit: Typo

[Medusa]

10. She's got to win PA by at least 20 points

or the media will talk about her failure to "connect". Nice try though. :rofl: