Californians, say it ain't so!!!

[Catch22Dem]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm
What's with CA being "too close to call?" Are * and Kerry really neck and neck? Surely my eyes deceive me!

[fertilizeonarbusto]

1. that's nuts

Kerry was 6 points ahead last week. Who took the poll?
OK, just looked. their last update for CA was on 4/21. A lot has changed.

[Kikosexy2]

4. Gotta be

...way bogus. Calif. is soooo anti-Chimp state...well Orange County loves him but that's a small minority there. My only concern is Gov. Groper coming out and endorsing the Chimp come Oct./Nov. And sad to say this but Californians do apparently get star-strucked by Arnie it's scary!! Really...Gov. Groper could pass a really bad law just because there are stupid Californians out there who only see Arnie the celebrity and could care less about the issue(s) at hand that they will vote for anything he dishes out--F*#KING SCARY I TELL YA!

[Mz Pip]

2. Gore won CA

with double digits, 13% over Bush, I think. No way that many Gore voters would be switching to Bush. Ain't gonna happen.

Maybe they took the poll in Red Bluff or some other conservative pocket.

MzPip
:dem:

[LeftCoast]

3. I found this:

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

President, CA


5/7/2004

Kerry (D) 46%

Bush (R) 45%

Other/Undecided 9%

Data Collected


5/4/04 - 5/6/04

Geography


State of California

Sample Population


635 Likely Voters

Margin of Error


4.0%

[Mz Pip]

5. Yeah, and

500 of the people polled lived in Orange County. <sarcasm>

MzPip
:dem:

[IronLionZion]

6. I'll tell you where to shove those polls

Why is Wisconsin dark Red?

[wryter2000]

7. Never happen

Don't worry about my state. No way is it going for *.

[Renew Deal]

8. That looks like a statistical anomaly.

[Sperk]

9. Of course it's not so....but they must have a cover story for when

California gets DIEBOLDED on election night. Califonians...DO NOT LET THEM CON YOU INTO THINKING THAT BUSH TOOK YOUR STATE!!!!!!

[salonghorn70]

10. The Survey USA Poll

This poll which is cited above is the only one that I have seen that puts the race close. Of course, I think there have not been too many recent polls. I agree with everyone else. No way is California this close.

[salonghorn70]

11. Here Is A List of the California Polls

http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

[kaos]

12. "Californians, say it ain't so!!!"

Every state should have a star in charge..
<IMG SRC="">

[uncertainty1999]

13. only 2 of 58 counties in CA are reliably democrat

LA county + whichever county SF is in (yes, these are two of the most populous in the state, but still, the too-red electoral map is disconcerting).

[demosincebirth]

22. Always vote Dem

Alameda County (Oakland)

S.F. County (SF only)

Santa Clara County (San Jose)

San Mateo County

Marin County

[fujiyama]

14. If you all

want to worry about CA, go ahead - you'll end up having an an ulcer.

There are states to worry about in this election. CA is NOT one of them.

If Kerry is leading Bush by 7 points in Ohio, do you all honestly believe he is in a "statistical dead heat" with Bush in CA and NJ?

These are the battlegrounds:

OR, WI, IA, MI, NM, PA, FL, OH, NH, AR, AZ, NV, CO, MO, WA, and any other state OTHER than RI, DE, NJ, CA, NY, CT, VT.

And BTW, if people ARE worried about Kerry in CA, then by all means do volunteer and do whatever possible to make sure this state isn't going to Bush, though I honestly doubt it will.

[demosincebirth]

23. I agree

[FrenchieCat]

15. That's called

a poll lie. What New? They do it all the time. Hope that if they repeat it enough...it will be so.

[Andromeda]

16. The Central Valley is California's

Bible belt. The voters there are mostly conservative. San Diego, Orange County and pockets of the San Fernando Valley usually go Republican. Most of Northern California (where I live) is Democratic and voted against the recall and were dismayed and angry that Davis was defeated.

Schwartzenegger has star appeal and many who voted for him were dazzled by his celebrity and thought it would be cool to have a movie star/action hero as governor. The Groper's colorful image in contrast to Gray Davis' dullard persona and the Republican's relentless negative ad campaign depicting Davis has the cause of all of California's woes assured Arnold's victory.

Star power is a hard thing to overcome but I really don't believe Steroid Man's popularity will transfer to Bush and Co. Bush doesn't have too much appeal to most Californians because they have a long memory and remember the energy crisis and how the Bush administration sucked California dry and drove up energy costs.

Bush is viewed by many as being too extreme and many moderate Republicans will not vote for him again.

[tinanator]

17. look at these

2000 pres totals by one county and statewide

http://vote2000.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/10.htm

2002 goobernatorial by one county and statewide

http://vote2002.ss.ca.gov/Returns/gov/10.htm

2003 special selection goober recall by one county and statewide

http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/gov/10.htm

BOY DID THEY EXCITE A FEW NEW VOTERS OR WHAT? or what, Id say...

[cyclezealot]

24. Why do we let Gov. Groper get away with murder?

Couple weeks ago he signed an agreement that the state would end its Enron lawsuit over electric power deregulation for a 10% return on the $9 Billion stolen from California..
And now the Groper if for further deregulation. I thought Californians were slightly better informed than most.

[Mountainman]

28. We're not more informed

On average we have as many fools as other states. At times more. The media lied about Davis and Arnold and a lot of people bought it.

It was like the 2000 election. Everyone slammed Gore and didn't lay a finger on Bush. Same, same.

[Hepburn]

18. LOL, IMO: Someone is blowing smoke!

The last CA poll I saw it was not even close between Bush and Kerry with Kerry waaaaaaaaaay ahead. I have no clue where that poll was taken, but I would say that it is not representative AT ALL!

[TexasSissy]

19. Well, CA DOES have a Repub gov. now.

That was the game plan. Seems it's working. (but I hope it's not true)

[CreekDog]

20. Kerry will do better than Davis did (Davis got 45%)

If even Gray Davis can get 45% (Oct. '03) in the recall election where Republicans actually matched Democrats for turnout (Demos outnumber Reps here by more than 10%), then Kerry will break 50% in a general election.

Also, there are more than 2 reliably Democratic counties in the state, there are between 8 and 14. There are 7 counties where a Republican will simply never garner more votes than a Dem and about 14 where it will rarely happen. Bustamante beat Schwarzenegger in all those counties and 1 other. Bustamante was even weaker than Davis, so if he won that county, that's real indicator of raw party loyalty.

The other counties are the ones supporting Davis in the recall, but where Schwarzenegger beat Bustamante. You have to remember that many Democrats cast a 'blank' or no vote on the Schwarzenegger/Bustamante ballot.

A good way to measure the 'never votes Republican areas' is the Cruz Bustamante vote in 2003. If he won the county against Schwarnegger, Republicans can forget about it. He won 8 counties:

(ALWAYS DEMOCRATIC) Voting for Bustamante over the Governator:
San Francisco
Alameda
Marin
Santa Cruz
San Mateo
Sonoma
Santa Clara
Mendocino

MOSTLY reliable Democrat counties are probably closest to those counties that voted against the recall of unpopular Governor Davis. Statewide, Davis lost 55 to 45. However, he won the 9 county Bay Area 65 to 35.

(MOSTLY DEMOCRATIC) Voting Against The Recall:
San Francisco 80%
Alameda (Oakland/Berkeley) 70%
Marin 68%
Santa Cruz 65%
San Mateo 63%
Sonoma 61%
Mendocino 58%
Contra Costa 56%
Napa 54%
Monterey 53%
Del Norte 52%
Los Angeles 51%
Solano 51%
Yolo 50%

[mot78]

21. Bullshit

Only a January Field Poll (which had no significance when conducted) and the recent Survey USA poll show * tied or ahead. Everything else shows Kerry WAY head by 10-15%. CA is NOT in play, no matter how many Repug pundits orgasm over the thought of it.

Who Did it When Bush Kerry Nader
Survey USA May 4-6 45 46 -
Rasmussen Reports Apr 17-24 40 51 -
LA Times Apr 17-21 39 49 6
LA Times Apr 17-21 41 53 -
Rasmussen Reports Mar 5-11 44 53 -
Field Poll Feb 18-22 41 53 -
LA Times Feb 18-22 40 53 -
Field Poll Jan 5-13 48 39 -

[kaitykaity]

25. My favorite FReeper

sent me the Survey USA numbers with the obligatory orgasmic
comments. Thanks for the rebuttal.

[neuvocat]

26. It ain't so.

Arnold Swarzenegger is distancing himself from the Bush campaign. I read it on Yahoo news yesterday but can't find the link right now.

[Democat]

27. Every poll except one questionable one has Kerry way ahead

A single suspect poll had them close, all the others that I have seen have Kerry way ahead.